CV19 - Cure worse than the disease?
Discussion
isaldiri said:
Eddiesteadygo has said this before. IFR is hugely age stratified. It's entirely possible we had done a gobsmackingly poor job of protecting the most vulnerable group, in fact possibly so by direct consequence of the govt edicts to free up nhs capacity....
As we progress through this crisis, it's abundantly clear that social distancing had the biggest impact on slowing the spread of the virus. It's clear that working age people with no serious underlying conditions are much more likely to die of one of the other big natural causes (heart disease and cancer) and it's a national scandal that we panicked and sent sick, elderly people back to community nursing homes without a CV19 test, thus spreading the virus amongst the most vulnerable in our country.On top of all this, we wasted untold amounts of money on political posturing (Nightingale Hospitals - 'we must be seen to be doing something') whilst trashing whole sectors of our economy which may never recover.
This should make the Tories unelectable for a generation - but they're trying to buy their way back into contention with their furlough and other money tree schemes.
The 0.9 IFR matches up exactly with the ICL numbers here on March 21st, so I don't think Vallance has any updated data that made a meaningful difference:
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-ri...
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-ri...
Elysium said:
The ONS data lags, so we only have data up to the Wk ending 24th April. However, as that also includes care home deaths it swings even further toward the elderly.
19,504 of the 27,330 deaths recorded are of people over 75.
So we have 71% of all COVID-19 deaths in a group that comprises 8% of the population.
Only 7% of deaths are of people under 60. That falls to just 2% under 50.
[b]The demography of this illness is very very clear.
[/b]
That we can certainly agree !19,504 of the 27,330 deaths recorded are of people over 75.
So we have 71% of all COVID-19 deaths in a group that comprises 8% of the population.
Only 7% of deaths are of people under 60. That falls to just 2% under 50.
[b]The demography of this illness is very very clear.
[/b]
Some attempt to show the consequence of lockdown:-
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/05/co...
No wonder then that studies of previous pandemics by the Centre for Economic Policy Research found that earlier outbreaks raised the Gini coefficient, a scale from 0 to 1 ranging between total income equality and one person owning all wealth.
CEPR says past events like SARS or MERS raised the income shares of the wealthiest, and lowered the share of the population with basic education in jobs, compared to those with degrees. More worrying still as nations around the world face up to record collapses in growth, “the inequality effect increases with the negative effect of pandemic events on economic activity”.
Finally, take education. The scarring effect of lower wages on young people entering the job market in a recession is well-documented. But the cost of losing months of learning on earnings is no less significant.
The Brookings Institute’s initial estimates suggest a 2.5pc per year drop in salary per student – or $1,337 (£1,063) in lost pay. Across the wider economy it reckons the cost to the US in lost earnings could be $2.5 trillion, or 12.7pc of GDP.
In a more extreme example, economists Andrea Ichino and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer studied the impact of lost education among 1930s-born children in World War 2, contrasting Germany and Austria with non-combatants Switzerland and Sweden. In Germany and Austria the pair found “an earnings loss that is still noticeable in the 1980s”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/05/co...
No wonder then that studies of previous pandemics by the Centre for Economic Policy Research found that earlier outbreaks raised the Gini coefficient, a scale from 0 to 1 ranging between total income equality and one person owning all wealth.
CEPR says past events like SARS or MERS raised the income shares of the wealthiest, and lowered the share of the population with basic education in jobs, compared to those with degrees. More worrying still as nations around the world face up to record collapses in growth, “the inequality effect increases with the negative effect of pandemic events on economic activity”.
Finally, take education. The scarring effect of lower wages on young people entering the job market in a recession is well-documented. But the cost of losing months of learning on earnings is no less significant.
The Brookings Institute’s initial estimates suggest a 2.5pc per year drop in salary per student – or $1,337 (£1,063) in lost pay. Across the wider economy it reckons the cost to the US in lost earnings could be $2.5 trillion, or 12.7pc of GDP.
In a more extreme example, economists Andrea Ichino and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer studied the impact of lost education among 1930s-born children in World War 2, contrasting Germany and Austria with non-combatants Switzerland and Sweden. In Germany and Austria the pair found “an earnings loss that is still noticeable in the 1980s”.
BlackWidow13 said:
Your little brain has finally severed all links with reality, and found a new home in disaster porn fantasyland.
He's posted a very real analysis of what's looming.South Africa has already reported food riots and looting as those with no money get increasingly desperate. Many other parts of Africa will see similar as countries shut down trade and keep what they have for themselves. The Italians have already taken steps to protect their domestic supply of tomatoes. Livestock breeders across the world have been culling young animals or stopping breeding as it's too expensive to rear livestock when there's an uncertain market for it - and that's just storing issues for the future... rice producing nations are pulling back on exports and the USA is restricting grain exports.
If we end up with 5m unemployed, a smaller tax take is going to have to stretch further - so cutbacks will have to be made in lots of services.
Ntv said:
Elysium -if you’re not careful you’ll become an “expert” on COVID19!
Definitely not an expert 
It's just in my nature to try to dig into something until I understand it enough to make informed decisions about it.
So I'm watching the death data because I want to know when this might end and what the risk is to my family in the meantime. When our entire future is based on some chap from Imperial College deciding if R<1 then I feel the need to find out if that is likely to happen.
ant1973 said:
Some attempt to show the consequence of lockdown:-
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/05/co...
No wonder then that studies of previous pandemics by the Centre for Economic Policy Research found that earlier outbreaks raised the Gini coefficient, a scale from 0 to 1 ranging between total income equality and one person owning all wealth.
CEPR says past events like SARS or MERS raised the income shares of the wealthiest, and lowered the share of the population with basic education in jobs, compared to those with degrees. More worrying still as nations around the world face up to record collapses in growth, “the inequality effect increases with the negative effect of pandemic events on economic activity”.
Finally, take education. The scarring effect of lower wages on young people entering the job market in a recession is well-documented. But the cost of losing months of learning on earnings is no less significant.
The Brookings Institute’s initial estimates suggest a 2.5pc per year drop in salary per student – or $1,337 (£1,063) in lost pay. Across the wider economy it reckons the cost to the US in lost earnings could be $2.5 trillion, or 12.7pc of GDP.
In a more extreme example, economists Andrea Ichino and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer studied the impact of lost education among 1930s-born children in World War 2, contrasting Germany and Austria with non-combatants Switzerland and Sweden. In Germany and Austria the pair found “an earnings loss that is still noticeable in the 1980s”.
No surprise, but its good to finally see these sort of articles. The Telegraph in particular has run a lot of 'end lockdown' stories in the last 5 days. The tide is turning at last. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/05/co...
No wonder then that studies of previous pandemics by the Centre for Economic Policy Research found that earlier outbreaks raised the Gini coefficient, a scale from 0 to 1 ranging between total income equality and one person owning all wealth.
CEPR says past events like SARS or MERS raised the income shares of the wealthiest, and lowered the share of the population with basic education in jobs, compared to those with degrees. More worrying still as nations around the world face up to record collapses in growth, “the inequality effect increases with the negative effect of pandemic events on economic activity”.
Finally, take education. The scarring effect of lower wages on young people entering the job market in a recession is well-documented. But the cost of losing months of learning on earnings is no less significant.
The Brookings Institute’s initial estimates suggest a 2.5pc per year drop in salary per student – or $1,337 (£1,063) in lost pay. Across the wider economy it reckons the cost to the US in lost earnings could be $2.5 trillion, or 12.7pc of GDP.
In a more extreme example, economists Andrea Ichino and Rudolf Winter-Ebmer studied the impact of lost education among 1930s-born children in World War 2, contrasting Germany and Austria with non-combatants Switzerland and Sweden. In Germany and Austria the pair found “an earnings loss that is still noticeable in the 1980s”.
Looks like another interesting interview from Mr Sayers at unherd - this time with the German virologist who looked after the serological survey in Heisburg.
https://unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds...
Haven't watched the full interview as yet, but lots interesting in the summary - especially the part about the speed of lockdowns, him thinking we went too fast without investigating how successful the previous raft of measures had been.
https://unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds...
Haven't watched the full interview as yet, but lots interesting in the summary - especially the part about the speed of lockdowns, him thinking we went too fast without investigating how successful the previous raft of measures had been.
bodhi said:
Looks like another interesting interview from Mr Sayers at unherd - this time with the German virologist who looked after the serological survey in Heisburg.
https://unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds...
Haven't watched the full interview as yet, but lots interesting in the summary - especially the part about the speed of lockdowns, him thinking we went too fast without investigating how successful the previous raft of measures had been.
"He also places great emphasis on the viral load that you are initially exposed to as a determinant of how serious your infection becomes"https://unherd.com/thepost/german-virologist-finds...
Haven't watched the full interview as yet, but lots interesting in the summary - especially the part about the speed of lockdowns, him thinking we went too fast without investigating how successful the previous raft of measures had been.
I'd like to see the basis for this conclusion tbh. There hasn't been very much proven studies on this at all and a serological survey isn't going to help in concluding anything about initial viral load exposure.
TurnedEmo said:
As we progress through this crisis, it's abundantly clear that social distancing had the biggest impact on slowing the spread of the virus. It's clear that working age people with no serious underlying conditions are much more likely to die of one of the other big natural causes (heart disease and cancer) and it's a national scandal that we panicked and sent sick, elderly people back to community nursing homes without a CV19 test, thus spreading the virus amongst the most vulnerable in our country.
On top of all this, we wasted untold amounts of money on political posturing (Nightingale Hospitals - 'we must be seen to be doing something') whilst trashing whole sectors of our economy which may never recover.
This should make the Tories unelectable for a generation - but they're trying to buy their way back into contention with their furlough and other money tree schemes.
The trouble is we don't need another general election until what, 2024? By then even though the after effects of the pandemic and lock down will still be with us, it won't be in your face. It's long enough for the electorate to forget what's happened. People have short memories. On top of all this, we wasted untold amounts of money on political posturing (Nightingale Hospitals - 'we must be seen to be doing something') whilst trashing whole sectors of our economy which may never recover.
This should make the Tories unelectable for a generation - but they're trying to buy their way back into contention with their furlough and other money tree schemes.
isaldiri said:
"He also places great emphasis on the viral load that you are initially exposed to as a determinant of how serious your infection becomes"
I'd like to see the basis for this conclusion tbh. There hasn't been very much proven studies on this at all and a serological survey isn't going to help in concluding anything about initial viral load exposure.
He didn't give any real justification - it sounded like a theory to explore in another research project.I'd like to see the basis for this conclusion tbh. There hasn't been very much proven studies on this at all and a serological survey isn't going to help in concluding anything about initial viral load exposure.
I was a little underwhelmed with some of the content TBH - I was hoping they could cover transmission on surfaces (which was a key finding on the early release). And I was hoping for more detail on his findings on asymptomatic vs presymptomatic, as he had the length of time to make some informed observations on this. And also some more detail on IFR by age range could have been good.
isaldiri said:
Muncher said:
I’ve not seen it referred to so far but there is an article on Sky News where Vallance confirms 10% in London have antibodies and 3-4% in the rest of the country. I cannot believe that is correct.
Why not? That's slightly low but not unreasonably so I reckon.Edited by Muncher on Tuesday 5th May 19:31
Prof. Ferguson resigns...clearly needed relief from lockdown
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
phope said:
Prof. Ferguson resigns...clearly needed relief from lockdown
Strangely enough, I feel a bit sorry that he felt the need to resign. We all know the rules are a blunt weapon. Must also be slightly embarrassing for all the people involved to have talks of "trysts" and "open marriage" printed in The Telegraph for everyone to read about and gossip over.phope said:
Prof. Ferguson resigns...clearly needed relief from lockdown
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
Thank God for that. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Strangely enough, I feel a bit sorry that he felt the need to resign. We all know the rules are a blunt weapon. Must also be slightly embarrassing for all the people involved to have talks of "trysts" and "open marriage" printed in The Telegraph for everyone to read about and gossip over.
Timing seems curious...wonder when the Telegraph became aware of the 'trysts' and was the news held back for a more opportune time?Either way, as one of the strongest proponents of strict lockdown and no stranger to controversy himself, he clearly had no option but to go.
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