CV19 - Cure worse than the disease?
Discussion
Ayahuasca said:
Don’t see why needed to resign. Pay the fine and apologise or whatever, but if he is useful on SAGE, keep him on it. His expertise has nothing to do with his behaviour.
The point isn't that it's bad behaviour. It's that he clearly doesn't believe in the advice he expects everyone else to follow.phope said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Strangely enough, I feel a bit sorry that he felt the need to resign. We all know the rules are a blunt weapon. Must also be slightly embarrassing for all the people involved to have talks of "trysts" and "open marriage" printed in The Telegraph for everyone to read about and gossip over.
Timing seems curious...wonder when the Telegraph became aware of the 'trysts' and was the news held back for a more opportune time?Either way, as one of the strongest proponents of strict lockdown and no stranger to controversy himself, he clearly had no option but to go.
The only doubt I would have is that there are quite a few members of SAGE so it would be hard for a single member to become overly dominant I would think - plus he wasn't the chair.
But if he was becoming a PITA by the people who know, it is a possibility they leaked this to trip him up. Politics is a dirty business.
Dr Jekyll said:
Ayahuasca said:
Don’t see why needed to resign. Pay the fine and apologise or whatever, but if he is useful on SAGE, keep him on it. His expertise has nothing to do with his behaviour.
The point isn't that it's bad behaviour. It's that he clearly doesn't believe in the advice he expects everyone else to follow.phope said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Strangely enough, I feel a bit sorry that he felt the need to resign. We all know the rules are a blunt weapon. Must also be slightly embarrassing for all the people involved to have talks of "trysts" and "open marriage" printed in The Telegraph for everyone to read about and gossip over.
Timing seems curious...wonder when the Telegraph became aware of the 'trysts' and was the news held back for a more opportune time?Either way, as one of the strongest proponents of strict lockdown and no stranger to controversy himself, he clearly had no option but to go.
Anders Tegnell believes that coronavirus was in Sweden as early as November.
https://www.thelocal.se/20200505/the-coronavirus-m...
https://www.thelocal.se/20200505/the-coronavirus-m...
EddieSteadyGo said:
Strangely enough, I feel a bit sorry that he felt the need to resign. We all know the rules are a blunt weapon. Must also be slightly embarrassing for all the people involved to have talks of "trysts" and "open marriage" printed in The Telegraph for everyone to read about and gossip over.
He should be immune given a prior positive test so why should social distancing apply to him.....? Dr Jekyll said:
Ayahuasca said:
Don’t see why needed to resign. Pay the fine and apologise or whatever, but if he is useful on SAGE, keep him on it. His expertise has nothing to do with his behaviour.
The point isn't that it's bad behaviour. It's that he clearly doesn't believe in the advice he expects everyone else to follow.Idiot.
phope said:
Prof. Ferguson resigns...clearly needed relief from lockdown
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
The guy got a bit horny, if he can't go without a shag for a good few weeks. Why the fhttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
k do they think millions of other single people are going to go without for months, its not going to happen. EddieSteadyGo said:
Ntv said:
isaldiri said:
Muncher said:
I’ve not seen it referred to so far but there is an article on Sky News where Vallance confirms 10% in London have antibodies and 3-4% in the rest of the country. I cannot believe that is correct.
Why not? That's slightly low but not unreasonably so I reckon.Coincidentally, there is a separate study from Stockholm which tested antibody levels in Stockholm on the 11st April which indicated those infected up to the end of March was about 10% in Stockholm. The Swedish government are saying that equates to now around 26%. I doubt our numbers have grown that quickly, due to the lockdown, but it would be likely somewhere between the two.
https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/fewer-tha...
He says very clearly the figures were from around 2 weeks ago, but take into account antibodies take time to show up, that was his estimate for 5 weeks ago.
If we assume the R value has been around 0.7 over that time and the infectious timeframe is 7 days, and about 13% of the people with antibodies around that time would be infectious (based on the assumption from the Gangelt study), then around 17% of London and 6% for the rest of the UK would be infected by this point.
That equates to approx 5.5m people. And I know it isn't technical correct, but if you divide total deaths by that number you get an overall IFR of circa 0.5%
Quite a few assumptions I know, but I think it fits broadly with what we know.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000j0mv/sel...
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Strangely enough, I feel a bit sorry that he felt the need to resign. We all know the rules are a blunt weapon. Must also be slightly embarrassing for all the people involved to have talks of "trysts" and "open marriage" printed in The Telegraph for everyone to read about and gossip over.
He should be immune given a prior positive test so why should social distancing apply to him.....? EddieSteadyGo said:
Just going back to Patrick Vallance's comments regarding antibody prevelance. He covered this today in one of select committee hearings (iplayer link below). He mentions this at 50 mins into the programme.
He says very clearly the figures were from around 2 weeks ago, but take into account antibodies take time to show up, that was his estimate for 5 weeks ago.
If we assume the R value has been around 0.7 over that time and the infectious timeframe is 7 days, and about 13% of the people with antibodies around that time would be infectious (based on the assumption from the Gangelt study), then around 17% of London and 6% for the rest of the UK would be infected by this point.
That equates to approx 5.5m people. And I know it isn't technical correct, but if you divide total deaths by that number you get an overall IFR of circa 0.5%
Quite a few assumptions I know, but I think it fits broadly with what we know.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000j0mv/sel...
Good find there about the timing he was talking about.He says very clearly the figures were from around 2 weeks ago, but take into account antibodies take time to show up, that was his estimate for 5 weeks ago.
If we assume the R value has been around 0.7 over that time and the infectious timeframe is 7 days, and about 13% of the people with antibodies around that time would be infectious (based on the assumption from the Gangelt study), then around 17% of London and 6% for the rest of the UK would be infected by this point.
That equates to approx 5.5m people. And I know it isn't technical correct, but if you divide total deaths by that number you get an overall IFR of circa 0.5%
Quite a few assumptions I know, but I think it fits broadly with what we know.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000j0mv/sel...
Elysium said:
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Strangely enough, I feel a bit sorry that he felt the need to resign. We all know the rules are a blunt weapon. Must also be slightly embarrassing for all the people involved to have talks of "trysts" and "open marriage" printed in The Telegraph for everyone to read about and gossip over.
He should be immune given a prior positive test so why should social distancing apply to him.....? 
There was no other reasonable outcome.
If there’s anyone to feel sorry for it’s his mistress and potentially more-so, her husband.
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