CV19 - Cure worse than the disease?
Discussion
I try to avoid the Telegraph in the same way I'd avoid the Daily Mail
However, the article is very precisely worded around certain dates, being 30th March and 8th April - the first being just days after lockdown was announced and legislation brought in but the 8th April is the date being bandied around as being the peak of daily deaths
I guess the insinuation is that at the supposed peak of the crisis, the leading pandemic modeller on SAGE was otherwise pre-occupied and that an academic elite don't believe the rules were/are supposed to apply to them as well.
Were I being cynical, his resignation from SAGE may result in SAGE providing different interpretations of the science to our decision makers..
However, the article is very precisely worded around certain dates, being 30th March and 8th April - the first being just days after lockdown was announced and legislation brought in but the 8th April is the date being bandied around as being the peak of daily deaths
I guess the insinuation is that at the supposed peak of the crisis, the leading pandemic modeller on SAGE was otherwise pre-occupied and that an academic elite don't believe the rules were/are supposed to apply to them as well.
Were I being cynical, his resignation from SAGE may result in SAGE providing different interpretations of the science to our decision makers..
phope said:
Prof. Ferguson resigns...clearly needed relief from lockdown
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
Oh fhttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
king LOLNot-The-Messiah said:
phope said:
Prof. Ferguson resigns...clearly needed relief from lockdown
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
The guy got a bit horny, if he can't go without a shag for a good few weeks. Why the fhttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclus...
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain resigned from his government advisory position on Tuesday night as the Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
The epidemiologist leads a team at Imperial College London that produced the computer-modelled research prompting the national lockdown, which claimed more than 500,000 Britons would die without it.
Prof Ferguson has frequently taken to the media to support the lockdown and praised the “very intensive social distancing” measures.
The revelation of the “illegal” trysts will infuriate millions of couples living apart who the government has banned from meeting up during the lockdown, now in its seventh week.
On at least two occasions, Antonia Staats, 38, travelled across London from her south London home to spend time with the government scientist, nicknamed Professor Lockdown.
The 51-year-old had only just finished a two-week spell self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
k do they think millions of other single people are going to go without for months, its not going to happen. EddieSteadyGo said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Ntv said:
isaldiri said:
Muncher said:
I’ve not seen it referred to so far but there is an article on Sky News where Vallance confirms 10% in London have antibodies and 3-4% in the rest of the country. I cannot believe that is correct.
Why not? That's slightly low but not unreasonably so I reckon.Coincidentally, there is a separate study from Stockholm which tested antibody levels in Stockholm on the 11st April which indicated those infected up to the end of March was about 10% in Stockholm. The Swedish government are saying that equates to now around 26%. I doubt our numbers have grown that quickly, due to the lockdown, but it would be likely somewhere between the two.
https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/fewer-tha...
He says very clearly the figures were from around 2 weeks ago, but take into account antibodies take time to show up, that was his estimate for 5 weeks ago.
If we assume the R value has been around 0.7 over that time and the infectious timeframe is 7 days, and about 13% of the people with antibodies around that time would be infectious (based on the assumption from the Gangelt study), then around 17% of London and 6% for the rest of the UK would be infected by this point.
That equates to approx 5.5m people. And I know it isn't technical correct, but if you divide total deaths by that number you get an overall IFR of circa 0.5%
Quite a few assumptions I know, but I think it fits broadly with what we know.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000j0mv/sel...
David Davis is getting onboard with the need to review the Imperial Model assumptions having noticed that the sky hasn't fallen in as predicted on Sweden yet.
Suspect now Ferguson has resigning, it is going to become open season on his model.
https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1257761432...
Suspect now Ferguson has resigning, it is going to become open season on his model.
https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1257761432...
Elysium said:
Neil Ferguson said:
We will have to maintain some level of social distancing, a significant level of social distancing, probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-must-keep-social-distancing-21875522Or in his case perhaps not.
EddieSteadyGo said:
David Davis is getting onboard with the need to review the Imperial Model assumptions having noticed that the sky hasn't fallen in as predicted on Sweden yet.
Suspect now Ferguson has resigning, it is going to become open season on his model.
https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1257761432...
Think Ferguson prefers the Swedish model now anyway. Suspect now Ferguson has resigning, it is going to become open season on his model.
https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1257761432...
markyb_lcy said:
Elysium said:
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Strangely enough, I feel a bit sorry that he felt the need to resign. We all know the rules are a blunt weapon. Must also be slightly embarrassing for all the people involved to have talks of "trysts" and "open marriage" printed in The Telegraph for everyone to read about and gossip over.
He should be immune given a prior positive test so why should social distancing apply to him.....? 
There was no other reasonable outcome.
If there’s anyone to feel sorry for it’s his mistress and potentially more-so, her husband.
ant1973 said:
markyb_lcy said:
Elysium said:
isaldiri said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
Strangely enough, I feel a bit sorry that he felt the need to resign. We all know the rules are a blunt weapon. Must also be slightly embarrassing for all the people involved to have talks of "trysts" and "open marriage" printed in The Telegraph for everyone to read about and gossip over.
He should be immune given a prior positive test so why should social distancing apply to him.....? There was no other reasonable outcome.
If there’s anyone to feel sorry for it’s his mistress and potentially more-so, her husband.
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