Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 5)
Discussion
PeteinSQ said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
It isn't just the press. It is the situation for many in the general population (including many who post here).
Just look at the number of people demanding a stricter or a longer lockdown, even though it looks like our cases will be well within our new hospital capacity.
The government though have a very unpleasant message which they need to explain - there is no way out of this tragedy which doesn't involve lots more people being infected over the next few weeks and months.
Does that mean that we have to look forward to between 500 and 1000 people dying every day forthe rest of the year though? I don’t understand how that tallies with the idea that 20k were going to dieJust look at the number of people demanding a stricter or a longer lockdown, even though it looks like our cases will be well within our new hospital capacity.
The government though have a very unpleasant message which they need to explain - there is no way out of this tragedy which doesn't involve lots more people being infected over the next few weeks and months.
What is clear is that the vulnerable will have to remain shielded for many, many months.
Red 4 said:
FiF said:
Red 4 said:
Well, the "experts" came up with 13 April to be the peak to begin with.
That has now been changed. So much for "experts", eh ?
Nobody is expecting them to be pinpoint accurate but I'd expect stuff like this to be more than just sticking a finger in the air.
Personally, I think they've got this wrong. Very wrong. What else would you blame the highest death rate in Europe on ?
Yes, I think we will top the league table ...
Errr, as before, nope. That has now been changed. So much for "experts", eh ?
Nobody is expecting them to be pinpoint accurate but I'd expect stuff like this to be more than just sticking a finger in the air.
Personally, I think they've got this wrong. Very wrong. What else would you blame the highest death rate in Europe on ?
Yes, I think we will top the league table ...
I said we WILL top the league table at the end of all this (in Europe).
Belgium is pretty shocking though.
Garvin said:
PeteinSQ said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
It isn't just the press. It is the situation for many in the general population (including many who post here).
Just look at the number of people demanding a stricter or a longer lockdown, even though it looks like our cases will be well within our new hospital capacity.
The government though have a very unpleasant message which they need to explain - there is no way out of this tragedy which doesn't involve lots more people being infected over the next few weeks and months.
Does that mean that we have to look forward to between 500 and 1000 people dying every day forthe rest of the year though? I don’t understand how that tallies with the idea that 20k were going to dieJust look at the number of people demanding a stricter or a longer lockdown, even though it looks like our cases will be well within our new hospital capacity.
The government though have a very unpleasant message which they need to explain - there is no way out of this tragedy which doesn't involve lots more people being infected over the next few weeks and months.
What is clear is that the vulnerable will have to remain shielded for many, many months.
Two hospital porters at the JR in Oxford have dies of Covid19... very sad and fires home the front line staff and their exposure.
https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/18374687.john-ra...
https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/18374687.john-ra...
The FT comment above is really good and it’s a conclusion I took away after the first CMO press conference.
One counter example though is SARS, which was eventually solved with a combination of quarantine and track and trace. This is well worth a read for an overview of how it was achieved:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/...
COVID is more infectious and the cat is well and truly out of the bag, but you would hope that we can at least slow it with track and trace and screening as per that article.
The conversation really needs to move onto how we will track, trace and screen as we come out of the lockdown as it sounds like the only tool we have.
One counter example though is SARS, which was eventually solved with a combination of quarantine and track and trace. This is well worth a read for an overview of how it was achieved:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/...
COVID is more infectious and the cat is well and truly out of the bag, but you would hope that we can at least slow it with track and trace and screening as per that article.
The conversation really needs to move onto how we will track, trace and screen as we come out of the lockdown as it sounds like the only tool we have.
Edited by dmahon on Saturday 11th April 18:57
Red 4 said:
I'm not the idiot - you are.
1. The NHS staff in the article were still front line.
2. The staff you have provided summaries of could still have contracted coronavirus at work.
Without knowing the full facts I will refrain from passing judgement.
Perhaps you should too.
3. The fact remains that viral load is a factor in some deaths and the virus can affect individuals with no underlying health conditions.
4. I would not want to work on a Covid Ward - would you ?
5. I'm prepared to cut anyone who works in the NHS a bit of slack at the moment
Maybe you should too. See the first sentence in my post.
1. Very clearly we have a different perception of what we consider front line staff. Mine is those working with confirmed covid patients.1. The NHS staff in the article were still front line.
2. The staff you have provided summaries of could still have contracted coronavirus at work.
Without knowing the full facts I will refrain from passing judgement.
Perhaps you should too.
3. The fact remains that viral load is a factor in some deaths and the virus can affect individuals with no underlying health conditions.
4. I would not want to work on a Covid Ward - would you ?
5. I'm prepared to cut anyone who works in the NHS a bit of slack at the moment
Maybe you should too. See the first sentence in my post.
2. There is a fair summary there of those that are likely to have been high risk as a result of being NHS staff and those that likely were at the same risk as anyone. In fact a great number were at high risk because of their age if nothing else.
3. I would not dispute the potential for viral load and the need for high level PPE for those at what I perceive to be front line and they have my utmost respect for being there.
4. See 3
5. I'm always prepared to cut people slack as you put it but not the media / posters attempting to fudge numbers to make a case for "everyone in the NHS is going to die because PPE for everyone"
Given the average age within that article being 55 the number appears to have been no more than normal human exposure would create at present? That will no doubt change but save your angst for then.
We have a s
tstorm ahead of us not last month and the important thing is to ensure PPE gets to the right places. Which as far as I can see is government policy..sim72 said:
Don't you love the guardian - the last bastion of hope, reason and sensible reporting - read and believe? 
Garvin said:
What is clear is that the vulnerable will have to remain shielded for many, many months.
This is true. TBH I am starting to feel myself getting angry that too many vulnerable people (which lets be honest are many of our elderly family members) are dying whilst many people who are fit and healthy are thinking about their own mortality and so getting obsessed about people going for a bike ride or sitting in a park.
We *need* those fit and healthy people to get infected - just at a rate which means we have a hospital bed for them if they develop a serious case.
My suggestion (which others may disagree with) would be stop testing most of the people who are in hospital with covid19 and have obvious symptoms. What's the point? I'm pretty sure the doctors aren't waiting for a covid test result before deciding what care to give.
I'd much prefer to see the testing capacity used instead for people working in care homes and who are interacting with vulnerable people - those are the people who need some level of protection from infected people.
sim72 said:
"The study, conducted from 1-6 April, tested 1,554 people. It did not involve antibody tests""It basically tells you nothing about 'herd immunity' or more generally how many people have had covid19......
Smiler. said:
ScotHill said:
So all countries are rolling down a hill, and the quicker you can roll down the hill without causing serious injury the quicker you can dust yourself off and eat your dinner; roll too fast and you break your neck, roll too slow and you'll still hurt yourself but there'll not be any dinner left when you get there?
You're from Gloucester, aren't you.It's even in your name
And yes, a fair appraisal.
Matty3 said:
sim72 said:
Don't you love the guardian - the last bastion of hope, reason and sensible reporting - read and believe? https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/10/world/e...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavi...
isaldiri said:
"The study, conducted from 1-6 April, tested 1,554 people. It did not involve antibody tests""
It basically tells you nothing about 'herd immunity' or more generally how many people have had covid19......
It gives you a snapshot in time, which can be interpreted and extrapolated from. Not perfect but it's not nothing either.It basically tells you nothing about 'herd immunity' or more generally how many people have had covid19......
sim72 said:
Matty3 said:
sim72 said:
Don't you love the guardian - the last bastion of hope, reason and sensible reporting - read and believe? https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/10/world/e...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavi...
Red 4 said:
Well, the "experts" came up with 13 April to be the peak to begin with.
That has now been changed. So much for "experts", eh ?
Nobody is expecting them to be pinpoint accurate but I'd expect stuff like this to be more than just sticking a finger in the air.
Personally, I think they've got this wrong. Very wrong. What else would you blame the highest death rate in Europe on ?
Yes, I think we will top the league table ...
What would you have them do instead? That has now been changed. So much for "experts", eh ?
Nobody is expecting them to be pinpoint accurate but I'd expect stuff like this to be more than just sticking a finger in the air.
Personally, I think they've got this wrong. Very wrong. What else would you blame the highest death rate in Europe on ?
Yes, I think we will top the league table ...
PeteinSQ said:
Does that mean that we have to look forward to between 500 and 1000 people dying every day forthe rest of the year though? I don’t understand how that tallies with the idea that 20k were going to die
No because the longer we go on, the closer we get to the results of the drug trials meaning we should find a treatment that reduces the severity of the disease, so the extra NHS capacity being built can cope with treating people and the rest of us carry on getting back to some semblance of normality.Having tried to miss any briefings or similar for a couple of days, the news managed to show journalism asking for apologies on behalf of people that journalists have no mandate from, and without a hint of irony at their absolutely dire performance which could more reasonably require apologies. Same old st stirring. The questions are still below any reasonable level of expectation, but in keeping with past performance.
t stirring. The questions are still below any reasonable level of expectation, but in keeping with past performance.dmahon said:
The FT comment above is really good and it’s a conclusion I took away after the first CMO press conference.
One counter example though is SARS, which was eventually solved with a combination of quarantine and track and trace. This is well worth a read for an overview of how it was achieved:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/...
COVID is more infectious and the cat is well and truly out of the bag, but you would hope that we can at least slow it with track and trace and screening as per that article.
The conversation really needs to move onto how we will track, trace and screen as we come out of the lockdown as it sounds like the only tool we have.
The virus characteristics of sars1 was very different and it was both more containable being mainly infectious when one was badly struck down with it (which was why so many medical staff got ill) and more necessary to be contained as well given the 10% fatality rate ie 10+x the current one... One counter example though is SARS, which was eventually solved with a combination of quarantine and track and trace. This is well worth a read for an overview of how it was achieved:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/...
COVID is more infectious and the cat is well and truly out of the bag, but you would hope that we can at least slow it with track and trace and screening as per that article.
The conversation really needs to move onto how we will track, trace and screen as we come out of the lockdown as it sounds like the only tool we have.
If ICU capacity will hold up say with moderate social distancing guidelines but most things open is track and trace to slow the spread even a desired outcome rather than trying to get it through the greater part of the population that is relatively very very unaffected?
sim72 said:
And? Big place, lots of space.
The point is, only after 10 years can you compare.
Happen quickly vs happen slowly?
Oz is in lock down, 1% means they could be in lockdown for years.
Then what?
Red 4 said:
Well, the "experts" came up with 13 April to be the peak to begin with.
That has now been changed. So much for "experts", eh ?
Frankly, that's a ridiculous comment.That has now been changed. So much for "experts", eh ?
Data builds up over time and reveals the effects of government actions and public compliance levels on the spread of infection and therefore the likely peak.
Compliance levels and the data arising over time couldn't possibly be known at the time of the first prediction but become known as time progresses.
So much for something, but it's not experts.
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