Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 5)

[king arthur]

gizlaroc said:

sim72 said:

Herd immunity, I hear you say?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less...

And?

Big place, lots of space.


The point is, only after 10 years can you compare.

Happen quickly vs happen slowly?

Oz is in lock down, 1% means they could be in lockdown for years.

Then what?

Austrians not Australians, you numpty!

[andy_s]

Wills2 said:

Red 4 said:

Well, the "experts" came up with 13 April to be the peak to begin with.

That has now been changed. So much for "experts", eh ?

Nobody is expecting them to be pinpoint accurate but I'd expect stuff like this to be more than just sticking a finger in the air.

Personally, I think they've got this wrong. Very wrong. What else would you blame the highest death rate in Europe on ?
Yes, I think we will top the league table ...

What would you have them do instead?

Models are just that, models with inherent 'known unknowns. As they update the data, they update the model, update decisions, update future strategy. The more they do this [admit when they get it wrong, change tack] the better [the more 'scientific', less political]. It's the opposite of what you want - firm decisions, firm dates, definite planning and sureness, but placing an emphasis on this is entirely wrong and counter-productive.

Watch out for dogma in any 'expert', chances are they'll lead you up the garden path [Tetlock et al].

[Matty3]

sim72 said:

Matty3 said:

sim72 said:

Herd immunity, I hear you say?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less...

Don't you love the guardian - the last bastion of hope, reason and sensible reporting - read and believe?

Well, you could read it in the New York Times or the original Reuters feed where it originally came from if that makes you feel better?
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/10/world/e...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavi...

It's the press - tell you what, try scratching the surface and then if you are brave scratch a little deeper and read the whole article and make up YOUR own mind instead of just posting a link to an article you claerly havn't read.

[dmahon]

isaldiri said:

dmahon said:

The FT comment above is really good and it’s a conclusion I took away after the first CMO press conference.

One counter example though is SARS, which was eventually solved with a combination of quarantine and track and trace. This is well worth a read for an overview of how it was achieved:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/...

COVID is more infectious and the cat is well and truly out of the bag, but you would hope that we can at least slow it with track and trace and screening as per that article.

The conversation really needs to move onto how we will track, trace and screen as we come out of the lockdown as it sounds like the only tool we have.

The virus characteristics of sars1 was very different and it was both more containable being mainly infectious when one was badly struck down with it (which was why so many medical staff got ill) and more necessary to be contained as well given the 10% fatality rate ie 10+x the current one...

If ICU capacity will hold up say with moderate social distancing guidelines but most things open is track and trace to slow the spread even a desired outcome rather than trying to get it through the greater part of the population that is relatively very very unaffected?

Yes today’s is a different and more infectious virus, but they did manage to stop SARS 1 which had 8000 cases in 20+ countries with track, trace and quarantine. I found that incredible considering they didn’t have as much technology to lean upon. It shows we could put a dent in the spread of Covid whilst we wait for a vaccine.

I’m personally in the “take it on the chin” camp too, but if I just have to have an app on my phone, have my temperature checked and a few sensible restrictions I’ll happily take that if it buys us time.

[gizlaroc]

king arthur said:

Austrians not Australians, you numpty!

I blame the third bottle of Merlot!

Well it is late.

[i4got]

turbobloke said:

Having tried to miss any briefings or similar for a couple of days, the news managed to show journalism asking for apologies on behalf of people that journalists have no mandate from, and without a hint of irony at their absolutely dire performance which could more reasonably require apologies. Same old st stirring. The questions are still below any reasonable level of expectation, but in keeping with past performance.

I think the Government are sending a message to the 'established' press about the quality of their performance by including Buzzfeed and Lad Bible questions in the last couple of press conferences. I suspect that the Daily Mash may be next on the list and the worrying thing is you won't be able to differentiate their question from the BBC or Sky.

[FiF]

Vanden Saab said:

Red 4 said:

FiF said:

Red 4 said:

Well, the "experts" came up with 13 April to be the peak to begin with.

That has now been changed. So much for "experts", eh ?

Nobody is expecting them to be pinpoint accurate but I'd expect stuff like this to be more than just sticking a finger in the air.

Personally, I think they've got this wrong. Very wrong. What else would you blame the highest death rate in Europe on ?
Yes, I think we will top the league table ...

Errr, as before, nope.

Sorry FiF, I don't see your point.

I said we WILL top the league table at the end of all this (in Europe).

Belgium is pretty shocking though.

If you think Belgium is bad don't whatever you do add San Marino to the graph...

Plus Belgium locked down a week earlier which seems to be one of your complaints.

Plus they've just extended the lockdown, which seems to be another complaint, ie changing the target / prediction.

And as you can easily find out there are nations with much higher per capita rates than UK. Last one to point fingers here should be USA, particularly if you regard the per capita figures from their regional epicentres, though even the national one is poor. Maybe it was an ooh squirrel moment from the WH.

Also in terms of the daily UK figure being higher that worst Italy figure, Not that far apart, plus we're actually comparing apples and oranges because of the stupid way the figures are being presented, ie announcement of the total, previous total being subtracted from that to give daily figure, when it seems that figures are being adjusted because of back counting earlier deaths only just registered.

Time will tell in a few months time when the curves have gone back down, and we've seen any second and third wave effects. I hope you're wrong with your prediction. It will all be analysed in minute detail. The key to complaint time will be what's done or not done with the lessons learned and hindsight.

[isaldiri]

dmahon said:

Yes today’s is a different and more infectious virus, but they did manage to stop SARS 1 which had 8000 cases in 20+ countries with track, trace and quarantine. I found that incredible considering they didn’t have as much technology to lean upon. It shows we could put a dent in the spread of Covid whilst we wait for a vaccine.

The big difference is that sars1 (and mers) didn't have an infectious incubation period and asymptomatic carriers.. when you have that, it pretty much guarantees that covid19 cannot be contained. I agree track and trace like South Korea can attempt to slow the spread of covid29 but if one has come up with a way to try to protect the most vulnerable groups, it might actually be better off simply not trying to slow it down at all.

[Penelope Stopit]

NHS staff state that they are short of PPE

Goverment states there is enough PPE for NHS staff

I believe the NHS staff

What do posters here think about this?

[i4got]

Penelope Stopit said:

NHS staff state that they are short of PPE

Goverment states there is enough PPE for NHS staff

I believe the NHS staff

What do posters here think about this?

Well if you've been reading this thread you'll see there are plenty of NHS staff who state they are not short of PPE so maybe correct your statement? A handful of NHS staff ? A few disgruntled NHS staff, A politically motivated NHS trade union?

[saaby93]

i4got said:

Penelope Stopit said:

NHS staff state that they are short of PPE

Goverment states there is enough PPE for NHS staff

I believe the NHS staff

What do posters here think about this?

Well if you've been reading this thread you'll see there are plenty of NHS staff who state they are not short of PPE so maybe correct your statement? A handful of NHS staff ? A few disgruntled NHS staff, A politically motivated NHS trade union?

Map?

[andy_s]

Penelope Stopit said:

NHS staff state that they are short of PPE

Goverment states there is enough PPE for NHS staff

I believe the NHS staff

What do posters here think about this?

I think most PPE is in place or in the pipeline. [2 friends in the NHS - calm, ready, PPE'd]
Some people may be short of PPE though.

No one has studied the situation, just extrapolated from worst cases to describe a whole.

[FiF]

andy_s said:

Penelope Stopit said:

NHS staff state that they are short of PPE

Goverment states there is enough PPE for NHS staff

I believe the NHS staff

What do posters here think about this?

I think most PPE is in place or in the pipeline. [2 friends in the NHS - calm, ready, PPE'd]
Some people may be short of PPE though.

No one has studied the situation, just extrapolated from worst cases to describe a whole.

I think it's partly a case of selective reporting. Someone saying we're ok on PPE, not news, ignored. Someone saying we don't have enough or the right PPE, screamed from the rooftops.

Having said that I believe that there will be some who do not have, or consider they do not have the correct or sufficient PPE. The word some in that sentence covers anyone throughout the medical and social care community incl private sector not just front line NHS hospital ICUs.

[Matty3]

Penelope Stopit said:

NHS staff state that they are short of PPE

Goverment states there is enough PPE for NHS staff

I believe the NHS staff

What do posters here think about this?

Please elaborate on your assertion Pen - more information please would be useful

[techguyone]

Fundoreen said:

Early days to track this but why all the care home deaths? They dont go anywhere.
I guess the staff must spend their time away on ski holidays and cruises.

My wife used to be a care home manager so I know a bit about this.

Any kind of infectious disease goes though these places like wildfire because:

People with a generally poor health condition/low immune system to start with.

Communal areas where everyone (staff & residents congregate)

bedrooms tend to be small and close together

low members of staff who tend to all residents

largish numbers of visitors (granted this won't apply now, but many could have been infected prior to the lock-down)

and generally if one gets it, it's like a house of cards, they all get it.

[Carl_Manchester]

Penelope Stopit said:

NHS staff state that they are short of PPE

Goverment states there is enough PPE for NHS staff

I believe the NHS staff

What do posters here think about this?

I hope it drives change where the government acknowledges that outsourcing production of this stuff doesn’t work very well in a pandemic.

[zarjaz_]

i4got said:

I think the Government are sending a message to the 'established' press about the quality of their performance by including Buzzfeed and Lad Bible questions in the last couple of press conferences. I suspect that the Daily Mash may be next on the list and the worrying thing is you won't be able to differentiate their question from the BBC or Sky.

Buzzfeed were on about a week ago as well, and in fact their question was not too bad compared to the others.

The mainstream media have been utterly appalling throughout this. Every last one of them. Shameful.

Journalists I used to have some respect for have had that blown out of the water. I hope there is a reckoning afterwards and we get some decent journalistic standards, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Garvin]

Penelope Stopit said:

NHS staff state that they are short of PPE

Goverment states there is enough PPE for NHS staff

I believe the NHS staff

What do posters here think about this?

If the frontline NHS staff are desperately short of PPE they would be dropping like flies with CV being so infectious. Only 19 have died to date. I think you must believe the NHS staff have superhuman immune systems.

[Exige77]

Penelope Stopit said:

NHS staff state that they are short of PPE

Goverment states there is enough PPE for NHS staff

I believe the NHS staff

What do posters here think about this?

There are 100,000s PPE used every day. Sure you can find a few that are complaining but the vast majority have got their PPE.

It’s not something that can be magicked out now of thin air. There are 1,000s of point of use around the country and all have different demands each day depending on their patients.

This daily quest by the media to get “someone” in authority to apologise for their failings is quite ridiculous.

They are doing their very best.

It’s never going to be perfect.

[TeamD]

FiF said:

I think it's partly a case of selective reporting. Someone saying we're ok on PPE, not news, ignored. Someone saying we don't have enough or the right PPE, screamed from the rooftops.

Having said that I believe that there will be some who do not have, or consider they do not have the correct or sufficient PPE. The word some in that sentence covers anyone throughout the medical and social care community incl private sector not just front line NHS hospital ICUs.

My Mrs has been a tad dischuffed about the PPE that was destined for her staff (care home for folk with severe learning disabilities) being "diverted" to the NHS, ended up with next to f all in the way of masks etc. It's not just the NHS that needs this stuff.