Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]
Discussion
Bing o said:
Steffan said:
I take your point: but this is such an extreme development I am hoping it will be limited in its spread. It is not something that should ever be happening within European Democracies.
If the EU manage to create the conditions of repressed anger and a sense of hopelessness within the masses, in Europe, that start serious civil uprisings with the madness of this nonsense the consequences could literally be deadly.
But it is not something I wish to speculate upon.
Too serious to discuss unless we are actually witnessing it in Europe.
Utter arrogance to suggest that civil unrest won't happen in western democracies. Do you actually think that their is something special which means people won't riot when you make living unaffordable. If anything, the west has got fat on govt and consumer debt - take that away and you'll see a lot of anger. People are too quick to think that war in Europe will never happen again.If the EU manage to create the conditions of repressed anger and a sense of hopelessness within the masses, in Europe, that start serious civil uprisings with the madness of this nonsense the consequences could literally be deadly.
But it is not something I wish to speculate upon.
Too serious to discuss unless we are actually witnessing it in Europe.
eharding said:
For most of the day there weren't any firm figures on the uptake of the bond swap, but this evening it certainly looks very likely that the CACs will be invoked, and an official default declared - so you'll owe Steffan that 50p. Anyone interested in some Ozzie Default Swaps?
Yes, I'm up to date with the news and await the outcome with interest. In many ways it will be more exciting if I have to pay up than if I don't! However, we'd best wait and see. There may be a lot at stake for UK if it all goes pear-shaped. Under the rules of the exchange, investors holding at least 50 percent of the eligible bonds must vote on the swap, and 66 percent of those must agree to amend the bonds to enable the government to impose the collective action clauses.
Offer ended 2 hours ago, 60% agreed.
Offer ended 2 hours ago, 60% agreed.
Edited by 1point7bar on Wednesday 7th March 23:51
Ozzie Osmond said:
eharding said:
For most of the day there weren't any firm figures on the uptake of the bond swap, but this evening it certainly looks very likely that the CACs will be invoked, and an official default declared - so you'll owe Steffan that 50p. Anyone interested in some Ozzie Default Swaps?
Yes, I'm up to date with the news and await the outcome with interest. In many ways it will be more exciting if I have to pay up than if I don't! However, we'd best wait and see. There may be a lot at stake for UK if it all goes pear-shaped.Telegraph - Huge solar flare to hit Earth on Thursday
It would be just Steffan's luck to lose out on his 50p because the world's information systems are wiped out by the flare, thus rendering it academic as to whether Greece is in default or not, as we descend into global chaos. Personally, I've stocked up on 6 months worth of pies and Dandelion and Burdock, just in case.
Germany sold 0.75 percent notes due in February 2017 at an average yield of 0.79 percent, a record low for the securities. That compares with 0.91 percent at the previous auction on Feb. 8. Investors bid for 1.8 times the amount allotted, the same as the previous auction.
Business as usual in the eurosylum.
Business as usual in the eurosylum.
1point7bar said:
Under the rules of the exchange, investors holding at least 50 percent of the eligible bonds must vote on the swap, and 66 percent of those must agree to amend the bonds to enable the government to impose the collective action clauses.
Offer ended 2 hours ago, 60% agreed.
I assume that is insufficient to invoke imposed collective action clauses?Offer ended 2 hours ago, 60% agreed.
Edited by 1point7bar on Wednesday 7th March 23:51
Default is inevitable with wholly insolvent economies. No other way.
Domino effect...banks going tits-up...civil unrest...FRANCE will be the first to go ballistic.
Don't believe all the Brit hyperbole about the French having no bottle, if a situation arises where French domestic interests are threatened they will be the first to kick off...and I'm talking about business people with some clout, not the country bumpkins and stripey tee-shirt weares of British cartoons. Beware the Froggies, a completely Bolshie breed when their CAP and other euro-bungs are threatened. The power Sarkozy has invested in himself is pure comedy.
HTH.
Don't believe all the Brit hyperbole about the French having no bottle, if a situation arises where French domestic interests are threatened they will be the first to kick off...and I'm talking about business people with some clout, not the country bumpkins and stripey tee-shirt weares of British cartoons. Beware the Froggies, a completely Bolshie breed when their CAP and other euro-bungs are threatened. The power Sarkozy has invested in himself is pure comedy.
HTH.
1point7bar said:
Under the rules of the exchange, investors holding at least 50 percent of the eligible bonds must vote on the swap, and 66 percent of those must agree to amend the bonds to enable the government to impose the collective action clauses.
Offer ended 2 hours ago, 60% agreed.
Reference? - I thought the deadline was tomorrow (Thursday) evening?Offer ended 2 hours ago, 60% agreed.
Edited by 1point7bar on Wednesday 7th March 23:51
Excuse me ladies and gents... Was just browsing a few different sub forums and this catches my eye.
Is the end nigh for the Euro? followed by the words volume 2. And then I see volume 2 is 50 pages in
Nothing useful to contribute but perhaps I'll stop by again when you're a healthy way through volume 5
Is the end nigh for the Euro? followed by the words volume 2. And then I see volume 2 is 50 pages in
Nothing useful to contribute but perhaps I'll stop by again when you're a healthy way through volume 5
coyft said:
Seems strange to say hyperinflation is an inevitability, but civil unrest is too serious to discuss.
What is the saying? You're only ever 3 meals away from chaos. Supermarkets' adoption of JIT and massive regional hub depots means most of europe would get hungry very quickly if the wheels fall off the wagon.BBC - UK 'must plan for Euro collapse'...
Article said:
Ministers should draw up plans to deal with a break-up of the eurozone "as a matter of urgency", a committee of MPs and peers has warned.
nelly1 said:
BBC - UK 'must plan for Euro collapse'...
They should indeed but didn't The Boy George tell us some time ago that this was exactly what HM Treasury, the BoE et al were doing...preparing for every eventuality?Article said:
Ministers should draw up plans to deal with a break-up of the eurozone "as a matter of urgency", a committee of MPs and peers has warned.
Latest BBC feeds suggest continuing trouble in the EU see:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17295461
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17294865
There are clearly different understandings concerning what constitutes a effective majority of Bond Holders agreement.
The Beeb suggests 75%
I have seen several different figures some as low as 60%.
IMO this is going to unravel one way or another. Real question is how not if.
There is no way to address Institutional Insolvency except by default.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17295461
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17294865
There are clearly different understandings concerning what constitutes a effective majority of Bond Holders agreement.
The Beeb suggests 75%
I have seen several different figures some as low as 60%.
IMO this is going to unravel one way or another. Real question is how not if.
There is no way to address Institutional Insolvency except by default.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120308-70307...
ATHENS (Dow Jones)--The Greek government will announce early Friday the results of investors' participation in the country's ambitious debt restructuring plan, known as the Private Sector Involvement, or PSI, a person close to the finance ministry said Thursday.
An announcement will be published Friday morning at 0600 GMT on the official government website for the exchange [www.greekbonds.gr].
The deadline of bids, which is Thursday at 2200 GMT, comes after several days during which various banks have declared their willingness to participate, boosting optimism in markets that the deal will go ahead as planned.
Late Wednesday, about 52% of the EUR206 billion ($270.9 billion) in bonds up for restructuring had been pledged.
Portuguese and U.K. banks, as well as Italian insurance companies added their names to the list of holders agreeing to the swap, as did Greek pension funds holding EUR19 billion of Greek debt.
Thirty-two investors in a group known as the Private Creditor-Investor Committee for Greece have signed up to the swap.
The deal replaces existing bonds with a package of new securities with long maturities and less than half the face value. Completion of the swap is needed if the European Union and the International Monetary Fund are to provide EUR130 billion in new loans to Greece, enabling it to avoid defaulting on its remaining debts."
Sounds like a lot of people are getting together to make this work and some of those are from the UK.
Apparently not everyone shares the general views of this thread.
ATHENS (Dow Jones)--The Greek government will announce early Friday the results of investors' participation in the country's ambitious debt restructuring plan, known as the Private Sector Involvement, or PSI, a person close to the finance ministry said Thursday.
An announcement will be published Friday morning at 0600 GMT on the official government website for the exchange [www.greekbonds.gr].
The deadline of bids, which is Thursday at 2200 GMT, comes after several days during which various banks have declared their willingness to participate, boosting optimism in markets that the deal will go ahead as planned.
Late Wednesday, about 52% of the EUR206 billion ($270.9 billion) in bonds up for restructuring had been pledged.
Portuguese and U.K. banks, as well as Italian insurance companies added their names to the list of holders agreeing to the swap, as did Greek pension funds holding EUR19 billion of Greek debt.
Thirty-two investors in a group known as the Private Creditor-Investor Committee for Greece have signed up to the swap.
The deal replaces existing bonds with a package of new securities with long maturities and less than half the face value. Completion of the swap is needed if the European Union and the International Monetary Fund are to provide EUR130 billion in new loans to Greece, enabling it to avoid defaulting on its remaining debts."
Sounds like a lot of people are getting together to make this work and some of those are from the UK.
Apparently not everyone shares the general views of this thread.
Ozzie Osmond said:
Steffan said:
Andrew[MG] said:
Are we still betting on March 23rd being the date for meltdown?
My guess is later this month.I see I'm not the only one who hears a very, very long echo.
Edited by Driller on Thursday 8th March 10:46
a)options are A miracle: 95pc of Greek bondholders accept deal allowing a purely "voluntary" restructuring to go ahead
b)A forced deal: between 66pc and 90pc of bondholders accept; Athens steps in and imposes the deal on the others
c)Armageddon: less than 66pc approval, pointing to a disorderly default
Looks like option b will happen though as there is around 21 billion in other law bonds and held by funds that would fight a collective action clause it is almost impossible for them to make the 95% over all participation needed.
Berlin has said it will not release the €130bn bail-out funds without a deal so some debt will likely be written off but not enough for the new bail out unless the Germans add more money, hence Greece would still fail to have the cash to repay the €14.5bn bond due on March 20.
Steffan said:
.
IMO this is going to unravel one way or another. Real question is how not if.
There is no way to address Institutional Insolvency except by default.
Stock markets don't seem to care...IMO this is going to unravel one way or another. Real question is how not if.
There is no way to address Institutional Insolvency except by default.
March 08, 5:59pm
Shares lifted by Greece hopes
Thursday 17:20 GMT. Hopes that the next 24 hours will bring a "successful" conclusion to the Greece debt restructuring saga and official confirmation that job generation in the US economy is gathering steam are encouraging investors to pick up growth-focused assets.
Edited by Mermaid on Thursday 8th March 18:33
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