Lockdown Imminent
Discussion
“ Coronavirus: 'Circuit-breaker' should take place during every school holiday, scientists say”
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-circuit-bre...
BlackLabel said:
“ Coronavirus: 'Circuit-breaker' should take place during every school holiday, scientists say”
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-circuit-bre...
R Mutt said:
BlackLabel said:
“ Coronavirus: 'Circuit-breaker' should take place during every school holiday, scientists say”
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-circuit-bre...
BlackLabel said:
“ Coronavirus: 'Circuit-breaker' should take place during every school holiday, scientists say”
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-circuit-bre...
tty model that Neil Ferguson created or is that code for “Hancock pulled it out of his arse”?Just when you think this can’t get any more stupid they prove you wrong.
foreright said:
Has anyone any idea what this “evidence” they always talk about (but never clarify...) actually is? Or is it some stty model that Neil Ferguson created or is that code for “Hancock pulled it out of his arse”?
Just when you think this can’t get any more stupid they prove you wrong.
I suspect that it is partly the dynamic of:tty model that Neil Ferguson created or is that code for “Hancock pulled it out of his arse”?Just when you think this can’t get any more stupid they prove you wrong.
- minimising impact to education
- minimising impact to parents of younger children (would probably have bene planning some childcare anyway
vaud said:
foreright said:
Has anyone any idea what this “evidence” they always talk about (but never clarify...) actually is? Or is it some stty model that Neil Ferguson created or is that code for “Hancock pulled it out of his arse”?
Just when you think this can’t get any more stupid they prove you wrong.
I suspect that it is partly the dynamic of:tty model that Neil Ferguson created or is that code for “Hancock pulled it out of his arse”?Just when you think this can’t get any more stupid they prove you wrong.
- minimising impact to education
- minimising impact to parents of younger children (would probably have bene planning some childcare anyway
Even if they announce it today, it'll only be 1 week to make arrangements.
There is no evidence. It's based on gut feel and possibly an excel spreadsheet where they guess how many fewer infections would result. Seems pointless as they haven't even had time to see what impact the Tier 3 measures are having. Hardly scientific to adjust some perameters on Tuesday (Liverpool in T3), then again 48 hours later (London in T2, other places T2-T3).
Maybe they should have gathered data back in March. Or maybe increased testing capability for the entirely foreseeable increase in test demand when school and unis went back. Or maybe invested in actually staffing the nightingale hospitals.
I think I'd rather rely on chance than the bunch of scientists and politicians we have in charge of this.
GT03ROB said:
I'm pretty sure Exeter, Bristol, Bournemouth have it in 1 particular demographic all have in common.....outside of that it's probably very low.
Yes pretty much all centered around university cases so average age of cases is going to be fairly low. Bath is another 'blip' (although not as big) in the south west, again largely all -contained- university cases, go literally 3 miles south and you have less than 10% of the cases. So presumably less of a concern than say, community transmission amongst an older population with the strain on hospitals that would present.Edited by ch37 on Friday 16th October 10:11
ch37 said:
GT03ROB said:
I'm pretty sure Exeter, Bristol, Bournemouth have it in 1 particular demographic all have in common.....outside of that it's probably very low.
Yes pretty much all centered around university cases so average age of cases is going to be fairly low. Bath is another 'blip' (although not as big) in the south west, again pretty all -contained- university cases though so presumably less of a concern than say, community transmission amongst an older population with the strain on hospitals that would present.Now think back to the results malarkey and the scramble for places mentioned earlier by me. In all that the Russell group and others had their restriction on numbers lifted, they saw the cynical opportunity to maximise bums on seats by poaching students from lower tariff institutions, students grabbed the opportunity with both hands to now go to Russell group, why wouldn't they? Then there was the furore over grade algorithm, students who were almost cast iron predicted a cert for the top places didn't get the grades, then that was changed so now they did qualify for their offered place, unis told to honour their offers, more bums on seats. Result total overcrowding. Then weigh in students being, well. students and here we are.
Seems as if the local post 92 uni is doing better than most possibly for various reasons. Larger proportion of older students, career changers with families, commuter students, plus very very large contingent of clinical courses, nursing, paramedic, physio, and so on. Seem to be behaving.
Having said that the data for the output area where a lot of non campus student acommodation sits is showing on the latest map as data suppressed.
Buys shares in tin foil.FiF said:
The other thing to add is that on the university thing it seems as if the big Russell group unis are the worst, not exclusively mind but circumstantial figures suggest this to be the case.
Now think back to the results malarkey and the scramble for places mentioned earlier by me. In all that the Russell group and others had their restriction on numbers lifted, they saw the cynical opportunity to maximise bums on seats by poaching students from lower tariff institutions, students grabbed the opportunity with both hands to now go to Russell group, why wouldn't they? Then there was the furore over grade algorithm, students who were almost cast iron predicted a cert for the top places didn't get the grades, then that was changed so now they did qualify for their offered place, unis told to honour their offers, more bums on seats. Result total overcrowding. Then weigh in students being, well. students and here we are.
Seems as if the local post 92 uni is doing better than most possibly for various reasons. Larger proportion of older students, career changers with families, commuter students, plus very very large contingent of clinical courses, nursing, paramedic, physio, and so on. Seem to be behaving.
Having said that the data for the output area where a lot of non campus student acommodation sits is showing on the latest map as data suppressed. Buys shares in tin foil.
Apologies for quoting myself, wanted to add this bit.Now think back to the results malarkey and the scramble for places mentioned earlier by me. In all that the Russell group and others had their restriction on numbers lifted, they saw the cynical opportunity to maximise bums on seats by poaching students from lower tariff institutions, students grabbed the opportunity with both hands to now go to Russell group, why wouldn't they? Then there was the furore over grade algorithm, students who were almost cast iron predicted a cert for the top places didn't get the grades, then that was changed so now they did qualify for their offered place, unis told to honour their offers, more bums on seats. Result total overcrowding. Then weigh in students being, well. students and here we are.
Seems as if the local post 92 uni is doing better than most possibly for various reasons. Larger proportion of older students, career changers with families, commuter students, plus very very large contingent of clinical courses, nursing, paramedic, physio, and so on. Seem to be behaving.
Having said that the data for the output area where a lot of non campus student acommodation sits is showing on the latest map as data suppressed.
Buys shares in tin foil.When people have a rant about students, they often seem to be imagining a simple demographic of middle class healthy 18-22 year olds. The reality is often very different, across the age range, with varying disabilities, health issues and deprivation. Equally the people teaching and looking after the students, eg anything from admin, catering, cleaners, support, career consultants etc are often in age range where they and their families are at greater risk. So the advice or opinion to just let it rip through the student population tends to ignore that there is a bigger and wider picture than the simplistic drunken partying 18 year olds demographic.
Lancs to go into level 3 lock down.
However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
red_slr said:
Lancs to go into level 3 lock down.
However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
I believe the gym closures was a decision made by Liverpool City Region, not central government. However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
red_slr said:
Lancs to go into level 3 lock down.
However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
It's not scientific, it's just that 'following the science' is a much better comeback from Boris when Kier Starmer or one of the journalists challenges him. However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
Tickle said:
red_slr said:
Lancs to go into level 3 lock down.
However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
I believe the gym closures was a decision made by Liverpool City Region, not central government. However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-new...
Tickle said:
red_slr said:
Lancs to go into level 3 lock down.
However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
I believe the gym closures was a decision made by Liverpool City Region, not central government. However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
So in theory Liverpool could close everything, but Lancashire could leave it's barbers, soft play, climbing centres etc open.
Then it's down to the individuals in Liverpool to decide if they take the advice not to travel or go for a nice day out in a different area.
Why is it so hard to work out whether infections are from pubs, schools, gyms, shops or offices?
The gym for example knows who visited and Track and Trace can place you there. Is there nothing that would have flagged this up as a risky environment? If not then it's surely not that risky. I appreciate that any interaction is a moderate risk so we can't just close everything but why would it not be more targetted?
People are upset that some industries are crumbling while others favoured i.e. allowed to open but if we could identify the individual risk level then we'd be acting on facts.
The gym for example knows who visited and Track and Trace can place you there. Is there nothing that would have flagged this up as a risky environment? If not then it's surely not that risky. I appreciate that any interaction is a moderate risk so we can't just close everything but why would it not be more targetted?
People are upset that some industries are crumbling while others favoured i.e. allowed to open but if we could identify the individual risk level then we'd be acting on facts.
Red 4 said:
Tickle said:
red_slr said:
Lancs to go into level 3 lock down.
However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
I believe the gym closures was a decision made by Liverpool City Region, not central government. However, they are making up the rules as they go so gyms and hairdressers can remain open. Some other caveats.
Its bonkers that its going to be negotiated for each area how can that be scientific? Is a gym in Liverpool more risky than a Gym in Preston?
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-new...
https://news.sky.com/story/how-does-the-three-tier...
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