CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 17)

[JoshSm]

mondeoman said:

Rufus Stone said:

g3org3y said:

Ah, the great philosopher Elon Musk.

Jordan Peterson says similar, or is he not smart enough for you either?

They might say the same thing but I bet they have very different motivations. Elon does what's best for Elon, his Covid views have been anti because it costs him personally, he doesn't care beyond that if the treatment of workers at his factories is a guide. Peterson seems to at least have a consistent moral viewpoint he tries to uphold even if you don't agree with it.

[cb31]

g3org3y said:

Will be interesting to see what our JCVI decide are told to say.

Made that statement a bit more accurate

[Rufus Stone]

cb31 said:

g3org3y said:

Will be interesting to see what our JCVI decide are told to say.

Made that statement a bit more accurate

Do you have evidence they have been told what to say previously?

[R Mutt]

grumbledoak said:

V1nce Fox said:

I’m not quite clever enough to understand this. Can someone simplify it please?

They are changing the definition of one of the statistics they publish, so we should expect a jump in the number.

Specifically the cumulative number of cases. Because we expect people to be re-infected again and again.

It will be interesting to see what the various data bunnies make of it.

A response to the confirmation that only 10% of these people died OF COVID?

[R Mutt]

johnboy1975 said:

grumbledoak said:

V1nce Fox said:

I’m not quite clever enough to understand this. Can someone simplify it please?

They are changing the definition of one of the statistics they publish, so we should expect a jump in the number.

Specifically the cumulative number of cases. Because we expect people to be re-infected again and again.

It will be interesting to see what the various data bunnies make of it.

Anyone who was a reinfection wasn't counted as a case. These will retrospectively be counted, and all added at the end of the month (AIUI)

It would be amusing if it didn't move the dial much. But with 16m confirmed infections, I think we are looking at between 320k and 1.6m confirmed reinfections. Or "possible" reinfections I should say

Will this be a good metric to quantify the reinfection rate? Sounds pretty comprehensive and better than the 1500 sampled in the react study I mentioned earlier. (Albeit omicron has a higher reinfection rate, so you couldn't take it as gospel. And against that, I'd imagine the vast majority if reinfections were omicron, so perhaps we can, after all?)

As Grumbledoak says, the data analysis will be interesting

Wasn't reinfection 1% for Delta? Isn't going to touch the sides. Yes many had it twice a year apart and this is up to 4% with Omicron, but this can't impact death numbers surely? How many didn't die within the frist 28 days?

[Elysium]

Update.

1. Comparison with last year.

The first graph shows Cases per 100k Tests, Admissions and Deaths this year as solid lines, versus the same time last year as dotted lines.

Cases per 100k tests is no longer declining and has 'stuck' at a level that is now higher than last year. The peak in admissions and deaths is now very clear being about 1/2 and 1/5th of last years totals respectively, despite far less restrictions now.

The second graph shows a similar view for Admissions, People in Hospital and People in Mechanical Ventilator Beds. The number in hospital has again peaked at about 1/2 of the level we saw last year. But the really interesting thing is the long steady fall in the number on ventilators.






2. These graphs show the Cases per 100k Tests and Admissions curves against the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Case Hospitalisation Rate (CHR)

I expected that omicron would result in significant falls in the CFR, but this is currently running at a 14 day average of 0.17% compared to 0.20% last July

The CHR has similarly settled at around 2%, which again is very similar to July.

This suggests to me that the reduction in death and serious illness from COVID is determined more by vaccination than omicrons intrinsically lower severity





3. Looking at these metrics together is interesting as we see the current relationship is similar to July and that the proportion of cases leading to Deaths and Admissons was running slightly higher in the 6 months between 'freedom day' and the omicron wave.

For the first graph deaths are rebased (x8) to align the curves. The second graph zooms out for a wider view and shows deaths at actual levels. It seems to me that COVID was comprehensively 'de-fanged' by May 2021 and that this recent winter wave simply maintains that trend. Despite all the 'noise' about vaccines effectiveness against infection, the data suggests that they have been highly effective at reducing hospitalisation (by 50%) and death (by 80%).

[g3org3y]

^^Very interesting, thanks as always for posting.

[mondeoman]

Roderick Spode said:

..... At the same time, Covid cases amongst the fully jabbed staff will continue to occur, causing much confusion - "but we fired all the plague rats unjabbed staff, I don't understand..."

Case in point...

I caught the 'rona last week, still testing positive. My mrs, who is frontline NHS, and is vakked and boosted was quite annoyed that her dirty unvakked hubby had caught it. She tested positive today and has had the same symptoms for the last couple of days as I had.

Vaccines eh? Who needs 'em?

[vixen1700]

Just walked through Westfield, Stratford on my way to Spitalfields and it was 90% unmasked with the other 10% being mostly fashion masks.

[steveT350C]

Sat in coffee shop in Chesham watching the world go by.

About 30% of people are walking around, outside, with masks on.

30% ties in with Matthias Desmet Mass formation numbers.

[R Mutt]

steveT350C said:

Sat in coffee shop in Chesham watching the world go by.

About 30% of people are walking around, outside, with masks on.

30% ties in with Matthias Desmet Mass formation numbers.

To protect others presume

Still not heard a single person state they are wearing a mask for themselves

But this has been about phycology from day 1

'Look them in the eyes' etc

Absolutely vile and the main reason I'll never vote for this lot again

[superlightr]

Elysium said:

Update.

1. Comparison with last year.

The first graph shows Cases per 100k Tests, Admissions and Deaths this year as solid lines, versus the same time last year as dotted lines.

Cases per 100k tests is no longer declining and has 'stuck' at a level that is now higher than last year. The peak in admissions and deaths is now very clear being about 1/2 and 1/5th of last years totals respectively, despite far less restrictions now.

The second graph shows a similar view for Admissions, People in Hospital and People in Mechanical Ventilator Beds. The number in hospital has again peaked at about 1/2 of the level we saw last year. But the really interesting thing is the long steady fall in the number on ventilators.






2. These graphs show the Cases per 100k Tests and Admissions curves against the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Case Hospitalisation Rate (CHR)

I expected that omicron would result in significant falls in the CFR, but this is currently running at a 14 day average of 0.17% compared to 0.20% last July

The CHR has similarly settled at around 2%, which again is very similar to July.

This suggests to me that the reduction in death and serious illness from COVID is determined more by vaccination than omicrons intrinsically lower severity





3. Looking at these metrics together is interesting as we see the current relationship is similar to July and that the proportion of cases leading to Deaths and Admissons was running slightly higher in the 6 months between 'freedom day' and the omicron wave.

For the first graph deaths are rebased (x8) to align the curves. The second graph zooms out for a wider view and shows deaths at actual levels. It seems to me that COVID was comprehensively 'de-fanged' by May 2021 and that this recent winter wave simply maintains that trend. Despite all the 'noise' about vaccines effectiveness against infection, the data suggests that they have been highly effective at reducing hospitalisation (by 50%) and death (by 80%).

thank you for taking the time to do this.
For comparison on the deaths can you do a single chart from say 8 years ago todate of all deaths/hospital addmissions with ages?
Looking to get an overall comparison from normal 2014ish to date as the big peeks and drops are hard to put into context with "normal" ie before covid.

[Digga]

johnboy1975 said:

jameswills said:

rover 623gsi said:

in case anyone's wondering, the covid nonsense in hospital's is still happening

my wife's 100 year old nan is hospital having had a nasty fall a couple of weeks ago. No visitors allowed - because covid. Phone calls possible - though you can never seem to get through and tbh her nan is pretty much all with it mentally but very hard of hearing

HOWEVER, a few days ago we discovered that nan now has pneumonia (i'm genuinely surprised they haven't classed it as coronavirus). Then earlier today my wife gets a call from her uncle to to say that nan is now on end of life care so the staff have said she can haver a visitor - one person, next of kin only.

She'll be lucky to last the weekend, all on her own.

It's fking mental.

I don’t like bringing personal stories in but this one struck a chord as we have had a family friend not being able to be beside his dying (now deceased) wife in hospital as she died of cancer. No reason at all apart from Covid measures. The nurses can come and go, go to the pub, go on trains, see their friends and family, but a husband cannot be beside his wife on her death bed.

It is criminal. And all we hear about is cheese and wine parties, no one really gives a toss about those, there are still real life disgusting humanitarian things going on in front of our very eyes.

This needs more air time.

As per Rovers post, I thought you were allowed 1 visitor?

(Which is still shocking, but your story is just nuts )

There was something about care homes on Planet Normal (youtube / podcast) ,denying access because of covid - but theres an exemption you can claim which allows 1 visitor. Which, needless to say, the care home in question was keeping very quiet about.

I heard some very concerning stories about the lack of care - both for patients and families - shown by NHS staff. I would perhaps give them less credence, were they not from someone who is, herself also a nurse in the NHS.

As I've said before, there was already a subset of staff who treated patients as a nuisance and families a troublesome irrelevance. Those people have used the pandemic as an excuse to dial-up their callous neglect to 11.

[R Mutt]

My gym says it hasn't opened saunas at many of its branches since March 2020 due to restrictions, where some are a smaller space. Does anyone know what these might be?

I thought July 2021 was 'freedom day'? Are there hidden restriction?

[a311]

R Mutt said:

steveT350C said:

Sat in coffee shop in Chesham watching the world go by.

About 30% of people are walking around, outside, with masks on.

30% ties in with Matthias Desmet Mass formation numbers.

To protect others presume

Still not heard a single person state they are wearing a mask for themselves

But this has been about phycology from day 1

'Look them in the eyes' etc

Absolutely vile and the main reason I'll never vote for this lot again

As someone else on here said the whole mask, social distancing etc is that well engrained now it's going to take a while to wean people off.

I often see the same guy walking his dog wearing a mask, lady in the gym keeps her mask on the whole time while on an exercise bike, folk in cars on their own wearing a mask (maybe they dropped someone off).

I've not worn a mask since June last year. I've only been asked once where my mask was, while holidaying in Scotland in a small shop. I politely said I didn't have one and left.

IMO it's going to take the finish of daily figure reporting to really start getting back to normal. The daily reminders are about the only thing keeping the fear going.

[steveT350C]

a311 said:

R Mutt said:

steveT350C said:

Sat in coffee shop in Chesham watching the world go by.

About 30% of people are walking around, outside, with masks on.

30% ties in with Matthias Desmet Mass formation numbers.

To protect others presume

Still not heard a single person state they are wearing a mask for themselves

But this has been about phycology from day 1

'Look them in the eyes' etc

Absolutely vile and the main reason I'll never vote for this lot again

As someone else on here said the whole mask, social distancing etc is that well engrained now it's going to take a while to wean people off.

I often see the same guy walking his dog wearing a mask, lady in the gym keeps her mask on the whole time while on an exercise bike, folk in cars on their own wearing a mask (maybe they dropped someone off).

I've not worn a mask since June last year. I've only been asked once where my mask was, while holidaying in Scotland in a small shop. I politely said I didn't have one and left.

IMO it's going to take the finish of daily figure reporting to really start getting back to normal. The daily reminders are about the only thing keeping the fear going.

And Sainsbury’s is still 90%+ masked up

[cb31]

Rufus Stone said:

cb31 said:

g3org3y said:

Will be interesting to see what our JCVI decide are told to say.

Made that statement a bit more accurate

Do you have evidence they have been told what to say previously?

Their statement was very mealy-mouthed, they didn't recommend jabbing kids but left some wiggle room on "balance of potential benefits and harms" and so on. Why would they do that?

Their refusal to then release the meeting minutes as they were not in the public's interest sealed it for me, it absolutely was in the public interest to see more details. They couldn't risk their actual words getting into the public arena as no doubt it went against the government line of jab anything that moves, even if it makes no sense.

[Rufus Stone]

cb31 said:

Rufus Stone said:

cb31 said:

g3org3y said:

Will be interesting to see what our JCVI decide are told to say.

Made that statement a bit more accurate

Do you have evidence they have been told what to say previously?

Their statement was very mealy-mouthed, they didn't recommend jabbing kids but left some wiggle room on "balance of potential benefits and harms" and so on. Why would they do that?

Their refusal to then release the meeting minutes as they were not in the public's interest sealed it for me, it absolutely was in the public interest to see more details. They couldn't risk their actual words getting into the public arena as no doubt it went against the government line of jab anything that moves, even if it makes no sense.

That would be a no then.

[Xerstead]

johnboy1975 said:

Anyone who was a reinfection wasn't counted as a case. These will retrospectively be counted, and all added at the end of the month (AIUI)

It would be amusing if it didn't move the dial much. But with 16m confirmed infections, I think we are looking at between 320k and 1.6m confirmed reinfections. Or "possible" reinfections I should say

Will this be a good metric to quantify the reinfection rate? Sounds pretty comprehensive and better than the 1500 sampled in the react study I mentioned earlier. (Albeit omicron has a higher reinfection rate, so you couldn't take it as gospel. And against that, I'd imagine the vast majority if reinfections were omicron, so perhaps we can, after all?)

As Grumbledoak says, the data analysis will be interesting

I'm surprised they weren't already being counted in the totals.
On the surface it seems a sensible change but my inner cynic is stirring. This change comes with the note that this will show, on paper, a step up in cases. I'm doubting the media will miss the opportunity for more scary headlines.
What are the likely effects on the data?
New cases still counted as new cases, so no change(?)
'Within 28 days' etc. Still the same.
Total number of infections will goes up.
Assuming reinfections are less severe than the first the percentage of serious outcomes will decrease.

Is there anything else to be expected?

[stitched]

Rufus Stone said:

cb31 said:

Rufus Stone said:

cb31 said:

g3org3y said:

Will be interesting to see what our JCVI decide are told to say.

Made that statement a bit more accurate

Do you have evidence they have been told what to say previously?

Their statement was very mealy-mouthed, they didn't recommend jabbing kids but left some wiggle room on "balance of potential benefits and harms" and so on. Why would they do that?

Their refusal to then release the meeting minutes as they were not in the public's interest sealed it for me, it absolutely was in the public interest to see more details. They couldn't risk their actual words getting into the public arena as no doubt it went against the government line of jab anything that moves, even if it makes no sense.

That would be a no then.

From the JVCI statement.
Government advisers are currently reviewing evidence on the risk of COVID-19 in children and young people considered clinically extremely vulnerable. Once this review has reported, the finding will be considered by JCVI and will inform further guidance.
So that would be a yes then.