Elon Musk $41B offer for Twitter
Discussion
soupdragon1 said:
Byker28i said:
Or is it there's better built cars for the same money, and other cars that are cheaper now the Asian players are in the market?
And that too. Removing indicator stalks in the European market wasn't the cleverest move either. A lot of headwinds for Tesla. The cars are getting stale and updating the dash mounted iPad every once in a while just won't cut it. Customers want to see more than that, they want a MkII rather than a mild update.
And not sure it is indicator stalks either. Model 3 production was still slow in Q1 whilst they were ramping up lines, which is also why they are not supporting the finance deals on them, effectively making them more expensive than a Model Y.
There is a demand issue though, or at least a lack of demand to support the 50% growth rate, which is what much of the share price is based on. Fundamentally, putting aside the newspaper commentary, Q1 wasn't a "bad" month. Most car companies would love to sell circa 400,000 full EVs at a median selling price somewhere around $50,000.
I also think at the current share price ($164/share) they are a decent buy and they will be quite a bit higher this time next year.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...
Byker28i said:
I'm not sure that offers the excuse you think it does.
Unless you can find statistical examples or data that infers we are not failing young men and minorities in our societies?
EddieSteadyGo said:
soupdragon1 said:
Byker28i said:
Or is it there's better built cars for the same money, and other cars that are cheaper now the Asian players are in the market?
And that too. Removing indicator stalks in the European market wasn't the cleverest move either. A lot of headwinds for Tesla. The cars are getting stale and updating the dash mounted iPad every once in a while just won't cut it. Customers want to see more than that, they want a MkII rather than a mild update.
And not sure it is indicator stalks either. Model 3 production was still slow in Q1 whilst they were ramping up lines, which is also why they are not supporting the finance deals on them, effectively making them more expensive than a Model Y.
There is a demand issue though, or at least a lack of demand to support the 50% growth rate, which is what much of the share price is based on. Fundamentally, putting aside the newspaper commentary, Q1 wasn't a "bad" month. Most car companies would love to sell circa 400,000 full EVs at a median selling price somewhere around $50,000.
I also think at the current share price ($164/share) they are a decent buy and they will be quite a bit higher this time next year.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportat...
It wouldn't surprise me if they need to raise capital this year. I'm 50/50 that they run out of money and go negative cash flow this year.
It can be uncomfortable to face the reality that throughout history, society and conditions have massively favored young white men, and white men, and men in general.
Giving agency to someone else isn't the same as taking it away from another group.
But enough angry red-faced men telling you it is, will have an inevitable effect
The same men who become incredibly wealthy pedaling the idea that someone who is "other" is taking something away from you.
Giving agency to someone else isn't the same as taking it away from another group.
But enough angry red-faced men telling you it is, will have an inevitable effect
The same men who become incredibly wealthy pedaling the idea that someone who is "other" is taking something away from you.
The plan for Tesla was always to flog the technology and charger infrastructure to a. Established OEM as a way for them to shortcut the R&D. The fact that all the major OEMs didn’t fall for it and went their own way means there’s no plan for the next gen of the Model 3 etc… because someone else should have been building them. we’re now in the ‘Elon flinging s
t at a wall’ stage of product development.
What happened to the HGV?
t at a wall’ stage of product development. What happened to the HGV?
KarlMac said:
The plan for Tesla was always to flog the technology and charger infrastructure to a. Established OEM as a way for them to shortcut the R&D. The fact that all the major OEMs didn’t fall for it and went their own way means there’s no plan for the next gen of the Model 3 etc… because someone else should have been building them. we’re now in the ‘Elon flinging st at a wall’ stage of product development.
What happened to the HGV?
I'm not sure that's true as all Tesla have stated anyone can use the tech in their patents without penalty.t at a wall’ stage of product development. What happened to the HGV?
soupdragon1 said:
I think the share price will be lucky to be half that $164 in 12 months time. Unless they pull a rabbit out of the hat with FSD or robots (highly unlikely IMV) they are on a downward spiral, and a compact car won't save them. Like I said in my original post, the cars are getting stale and mild refreshes aren't the answer. This is in a landscape of huge Govt subsidies, so when Govts pull the support, Tesla will literally be gasping for air.
It wouldn't surprise me if they need to raise capital this year. I'm 50/50 that they run out of money and go negative cash flow this year.
It's interesting that with the same facts we are drawing opposite conclusions. It wouldn't surprise me if they need to raise capital this year. I'm 50/50 that they run out of money and go negative cash flow this year.
People have been talking about the withdrawal of government subsidies being the end of Tesla for literally years. They aren't going to run out of money; I think they have a cash pile somewhere close to $30bn. And the costs of batteries continue to reduce which further helps margin. And by this time next year interest rates will already be coming down, further helping affordability. Plus their super-charger network in the US is now dominant, with all other manufacturers effectively now forced to support it. And they have their truck business (Tesla semi) ready to increase production volumes later this year.
With FSD, I doubt the current cars on the road will ever be truly be 'level 5', but with their new machine-learning approach to FSD I now think it is possible they could solve FSD, even it is needs a new vehicle design with re-positioned cameras to achieve it.
Plus there is also some cynical reasoning to expect an increase in the share price by this time next year related to Musk's compensation package.
Let's revisit in 12 months, and see what happened to the share price.
EddieSteadyGo said:
soupdragon1 said:
I think the share price will be lucky to be half that $164 in 12 months time. Unless they pull a rabbit out of the hat with FSD or robots (highly unlikely IMV) they are on a downward spiral, and a compact car won't save them. Like I said in my original post, the cars are getting stale and mild refreshes aren't the answer. This is in a landscape of huge Govt subsidies, so when Govts pull the support, Tesla will literally be gasping for air.
It wouldn't surprise me if they need to raise capital this year. I'm 50/50 that they run out of money and go negative cash flow this year.
It's interesting that with the same facts we are drawing opposite conclusions. It wouldn't surprise me if they need to raise capital this year. I'm 50/50 that they run out of money and go negative cash flow this year.
People have been talking about the withdrawal of government subsidies being the end of Tesla for literally years. They aren't going to run out of money; I think they have a cash pile somewhere close to $30bn. And the costs of batteries continue to reduce which further helps margin. And by this time next year interest rates will already be coming down, further helping affordability. Plus their super-charger network in the US is now dominant, with all other manufacturers effectively now forced to support it. And they have their truck business (Tesla semi) ready to increase production volumes later this year.
With FSD, I doubt the current cars on the road will ever be truly be 'level 5', but with their new machine-learning approach to FSD I now think it is possible they could solve FSD, even it is needs a new vehicle design with re-positioned cameras to achieve it.
Plus there is also some cynical reasoning to expect an increase in the share price by this time next year related to Musk's compensation package.
Let's revisit in 12 months, and see what happened to the share price.
soupdragon1 said:
Yes, both our arguments are well trodden paths. Its hard to know how much of their stated cash is locked up in China. If we don't see a capital raise this year, then I'll need to revisit my thesis. I've not seen any actual red flags yet, but that would be the red flag to me that cash flow is a problem. If it doesn't happen, then they're a lot healthier than I'm giving them credit for, but I'm far from convinced that that is the case.
Being cynical, another question is why didn't Musk send his usual end-of-quarter email asking Tesla staff to push to get cars delivered before the end of quarter? The last email I heard he sent was asking US staff to effectively slow down deliveries by taking the time instead to give new customers an extended demo of FSD beta. So, I'm pretty sure Tesla could have improved the number of deliveries in the quarter if they really wanted to. And why is the re-tooling changeover for the revised model 3 production still not yet back to full capacity?Just makes me wonder if Musk's yet-to-be-announced, new compensation plan could somehow benefit from Q1 being something of a miss...
WestyCarl said:
I'm not sure that's true as all Tesla have stated anyone can use the tech in their patents without penalty.
They claimed that - but there's a poison pill in the agreement.To use the Telsa patents you have to basically agree not to sue Tesla if they infringe your patents.
AW111 said:
WestyCarl said:
I'm not sure that's true as all Tesla have stated anyone can use the tech in their patents without penalty.
They claimed that - but there's a poison pill in the agreement.To use the Telsa patents you have to basically agree not to sue Tesla if they infringe your patents.
EddieSteadyGo said:
soupdragon1 said:
I think the share price will be lucky to be half that $164 in 12 months time. Unless they pull a rabbit out of the hat with FSD or robots (highly unlikely IMV) they are on a downward spiral, and a compact car won't save them. Like I said in my original post, the cars are getting stale and mild refreshes aren't the answer. This is in a landscape of huge Govt subsidies, so when Govts pull the support, Tesla will literally be gasping for air.
It wouldn't surprise me if they need to raise capital this year. I'm 50/50 that they run out of money and go negative cash flow this year.
It's interesting that with the same facts we are drawing opposite conclusions. It wouldn't surprise me if they need to raise capital this year. I'm 50/50 that they run out of money and go negative cash flow this year.
People have been talking about the withdrawal of government subsidies being the end of Tesla for literally years. They aren't going to run out of money; I think they have a cash pile somewhere close to $30bn. And the costs of batteries continue to reduce which further helps margin. And by this time next year interest rates will already be coming down, further helping affordability. Plus their super-charger network in the US is now dominant, with all other manufacturers effectively now forced to support it. And they have their truck business (Tesla semi) ready to increase production volumes later this year.
With FSD, I doubt the current cars on the road will ever be truly be 'level 5', but with their new machine-learning approach to FSD I now think it is possible they could solve FSD, even it is needs a new vehicle design with re-positioned cameras to achieve it.
Plus there is also some cynical reasoning to expect an increase in the share price by this time next year related to Musk's compensation package.
Let's revisit in 12 months, and see what happened to the share price.
At the peak of their value it was all justified because they were a technology company.
But money was cheap then, rapid growth was king, Elon wasn't deep into Twitter etc etc etc
Byker28i said:
RichTT said:
Byker28i said:
or I googled until I found something that matched my views?
I googled for a source that had data that I then used to argue my point. I'm not sure that offers the excuse you think it does.
The phrase "mind your sources" is used a lot in research for good reason, GIGO is just the beginning of them.
gregs656 said:
It's interesting that the press and the markets are increasingly judging Tesla as a car manufacturing company.
At the peak of their value it was all justified because they were a technology company.
But money was cheap then, rapid growth was king, Elon wasn't deep into Twitter etc etc etc
TBH I think there are still valued as a tech company. They market cap is still over $500bn which is probably more than top 10 legacy car manufacturers combined.At the peak of their value it was all justified because they were a technology company.
But money was cheap then, rapid growth was king, Elon wasn't deep into Twitter etc etc etc
ETA : I checked and that stat isn't quite true as I had underestimated the value of Toyota. Still, the broader point stands I think about being valued more as a tech company.
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Wednesday 3rd April 17:04
EddieSteadyGo said:
TBH I think there are still valued as a tech company. They market cap is still over $500bn which is probably more than top 10 legacy car manufacturers combined.
ETA : I checked and that stat isn't quite true as I had underestimated the value of Toyota. Still, the broader point stands I think about being valued more as a tech company.
I did say increasingly - a lot of the jam tomorrow good will is leaving.ETA : I checked and that stat isn't quite true as I had underestimated the value of Toyota. Still, the broader point stands I think about being valued more as a tech company.
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Wednesday 3rd April 17:04
EddieSteadyGo said:
gregs656 said:
It's interesting that the press and the markets are increasingly judging Tesla as a car manufacturing company.
At the peak of their value it was all justified because they were a technology company.
But money was cheap then, rapid growth was king, Elon wasn't deep into Twitter etc etc etc
TBH I think there are still valued as a tech company. They market cap is still over $500bn which is probably more than top 10 legacy car manufacturers combined.At the peak of their value it was all justified because they were a technology company.
But money was cheap then, rapid growth was king, Elon wasn't deep into Twitter etc etc etc
ETA : I checked and that stat isn't quite true as I had underestimated the value of Toyota. Still, the broader point stands I think about being valued more as a tech company.
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Wednesday 3rd April 17:04
p1stonhead said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
gregs656 said:
It's interesting that the press and the markets are increasingly judging Tesla as a car manufacturing company.
At the peak of their value it was all justified because they were a technology company.
But money was cheap then, rapid growth was king, Elon wasn't deep into Twitter etc etc etc
TBH I think there are still valued as a tech company. They market cap is still over $500bn which is probably more than top 10 legacy car manufacturers combined.At the peak of their value it was all justified because they were a technology company.
But money was cheap then, rapid growth was king, Elon wasn't deep into Twitter etc etc etc
ETA : I checked and that stat isn't quite true as I had underestimated the value of Toyota. Still, the broader point stands I think about being valued more as a tech company.
Edited by EddieSteadyGo on Wednesday 3rd April 17:04
and @Soupdragon's point were imho spot on, too
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