Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?
Discussion
WTF is going on? There's a nasty flu that's a bit more contagious than usual. A few tens of thousands of people globally have it. Some of them have died, as would be the case with any flu; perhaps a few more than other flus, but nothing like the 1918 epidemic, and generally killing the elderly and vulnerable, like most flus.
It's neither cutting a swathe through the Chinese, really - about 80,000 cases in a population of 1.3bn - nor spreading like actual wildfire anywhere else. There are a few hundred reported infections in a few countries, and somewhere between single digits and a few dozen in others. It's been *three months* since the start of the Wuhan epidemic (first case 1 December 2019). The Chinese government started special measures in Wuhan in early January. Wuhan is a city of 11 million people (bigger by some way than greater London, and no less crowded); if this was going to be the world-ending plague the media seem to think it is, there should be millions infected, tens or hundreds of thousands dead in that city.
I assume the WHO is working to the worst-case scenario - based on this graph
.
The 1918 flu originally behaved like other flus, then became much nastier about a year later. One theory is that this was because people with mild symptoms were contained, while more severe cases were sent to centralised hospitals, thus creating a selection bias for the more dangerous form of the virus. Arguably if more people had been infected with the mild variant, the death rate from the later mutation could have been lower.
In any case, right now, the actual disease appears not to be generating the same symptomatic infection rate (probably partly because more of us are better nourished and less immuno-suppressed than the global population after 5 years of war) and it's not disproportionately infecting the young and healthy (which was the unusual and particularly damaging thing about the 1918 flu). So why is everyone running around like Chicken Little?
Either there's something we're not being told, or the world is primed for another outbreak of millennarianism - perhaps because of all the Thunberg/ER doomspreading - and has latched onto this, or this is the first real social-media-escalated mass global panic.
It's neither cutting a swathe through the Chinese, really - about 80,000 cases in a population of 1.3bn - nor spreading like actual wildfire anywhere else. There are a few hundred reported infections in a few countries, and somewhere between single digits and a few dozen in others. It's been *three months* since the start of the Wuhan epidemic (first case 1 December 2019). The Chinese government started special measures in Wuhan in early January. Wuhan is a city of 11 million people (bigger by some way than greater London, and no less crowded); if this was going to be the world-ending plague the media seem to think it is, there should be millions infected, tens or hundreds of thousands dead in that city.
I assume the WHO is working to the worst-case scenario - based on this graph
.The 1918 flu originally behaved like other flus, then became much nastier about a year later. One theory is that this was because people with mild symptoms were contained, while more severe cases were sent to centralised hospitals, thus creating a selection bias for the more dangerous form of the virus. Arguably if more people had been infected with the mild variant, the death rate from the later mutation could have been lower.
In any case, right now, the actual disease appears not to be generating the same symptomatic infection rate (probably partly because more of us are better nourished and less immuno-suppressed than the global population after 5 years of war) and it's not disproportionately infecting the young and healthy (which was the unusual and particularly damaging thing about the 1918 flu). So why is everyone running around like Chicken Little?
Either there's something we're not being told, or the world is primed for another outbreak of millennarianism - perhaps because of all the Thunberg/ER doomspreading - and has latched onto this, or this is the first real social-media-escalated mass global panic.
964Cup said:
WTF is going on? There's a nasty flu that's a bit more contagious than usual. A few tens of thousands of people globally have it. Some of them have died, as would be the case with any flu; perhaps a few more than other flus, but nothing like the 1918 epidemic, and generally killing the elderly and vulnerable, like most flus.
It's neither cutting a swathe through the Chinese, really - about 80,000 cases in a population of 1.3bn - nor spreading like actual wildfire anywhere else. There are a few hundred reported infections in a few countries, and somewhere between single digits and a few dozen in others. It's been *three months* since the start of the Wuhan epidemic (first case 1 December 2019). The Chinese government started special measures in Wuhan in early January. Wuhan is a city of 11 million people (bigger by some way than greater London, and no less crowded); if this was going to be the world-ending plague the media seem to think it is, there should be millions infected, tens or hundreds of thousands dead in that city.
I assume the WHO is working to the worst-case scenario - based on this graph
.
The 1918 flu originally behaved like other flus, then became much nastier about a year later. One theory is that this was because people with mild symptoms were contained, while more severe cases were sent to centralised hospitals, thus creating a selection bias for the more dangerous form of the virus. Arguably if more people had been infected with the mild variant, the death rate from the later mutation could have been lower.
In any case, right now, the actual disease appears not to be generating the same symptomatic infection rate (probably partly because more of us are better nourished and less immuno-suppressed than the global population after 5 years of war) and it's not disproportionately infecting the young and healthy (which was the unusual and particularly damaging thing about the 1918 flu). So why is everyone running around like Chicken Little?
Either there's something we're not being told, or the world is primed for another outbreak of millennarianism - perhaps because of all the Thunberg/ER doomspreading - and has latched onto this, or this is the first real social-media-escalated mass global panic.
It's not a flu virus. It's a Coronavirus. It's neither cutting a swathe through the Chinese, really - about 80,000 cases in a population of 1.3bn - nor spreading like actual wildfire anywhere else. There are a few hundred reported infections in a few countries, and somewhere between single digits and a few dozen in others. It's been *three months* since the start of the Wuhan epidemic (first case 1 December 2019). The Chinese government started special measures in Wuhan in early January. Wuhan is a city of 11 million people (bigger by some way than greater London, and no less crowded); if this was going to be the world-ending plague the media seem to think it is, there should be millions infected, tens or hundreds of thousands dead in that city.
I assume the WHO is working to the worst-case scenario - based on this graph
.The 1918 flu originally behaved like other flus, then became much nastier about a year later. One theory is that this was because people with mild symptoms were contained, while more severe cases were sent to centralised hospitals, thus creating a selection bias for the more dangerous form of the virus. Arguably if more people had been infected with the mild variant, the death rate from the later mutation could have been lower.
In any case, right now, the actual disease appears not to be generating the same symptomatic infection rate (probably partly because more of us are better nourished and less immuno-suppressed than the global population after 5 years of war) and it's not disproportionately infecting the young and healthy (which was the unusual and particularly damaging thing about the 1918 flu). So why is everyone running around like Chicken Little?
Either there's something we're not being told, or the world is primed for another outbreak of millennarianism - perhaps because of all the Thunberg/ER doomspreading - and has latched onto this, or this is the first real social-media-escalated mass global panic.
superkartracer said:
964Cup said:
WTF is going on?
China locked 700 million people upHTH
Telegraph:Retired doctors and nurses could help hospitals deal with coronavirus crisis
I'm sure there will be many retired health staff who will step up to the challenge if asked, but it does seem very sad that we'd have to put those of an age that place them at a higher risk of severe consequences from the disease directly in harm's way.
I'm sure there will be many retired health staff who will step up to the challenge if asked, but it does seem very sad that we'd have to put those of an age that place them at a higher risk of severe consequences from the disease directly in harm's way.
RDMcG said:
It seems to be getting going a bit in the US:
Oregon:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2020/02/2...
Washington state:
http://www.startribune.com/new-coronavirus-cases-o...
These do not seem to be travel-related. I expect we will see more about this quite quickly.
Given the eviscerating of the CDC over there I’m not sure that’s an unreasonable reaction. The US is turning into the other shoe to drop.Oregon:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2020/02/2...
Washington state:
http://www.startribune.com/new-coronavirus-cases-o...
These do not seem to be travel-related. I expect we will see more about this quite quickly.
V6 Pushfit said:
Italy
239 new cases and 8 new deaths in Italy. among the 1,049 active cases, 401 (38%) are hospitalized, and 105 (10%) are in intensive care. among the 79 closed cases, 50 (63%) have recovered, 29 (37%) have died.
So, much better info. Haven’t calculated exactly but it’s about 16% death rate if you catch it, which is a darn sight better than Wuhan at this early stage.
WHO’s figure would be about 2.7% (for the benefit of the easily led).
Give up trolling this thread, it's getting very boring.239 new cases and 8 new deaths in Italy. among the 1,049 active cases, 401 (38%) are hospitalized, and 105 (10%) are in intensive care. among the 79 closed cases, 50 (63%) have recovered, 29 (37%) have died.
So, much better info. Haven’t calculated exactly but it’s about 16% death rate if you catch it, which is a darn sight better than Wuhan at this early stage.
WHO’s figure would be about 2.7% (for the benefit of the easily led).
964Cup said:
WTF is going on? There's a nasty flu that's a bit more contagious than usual. A few tens of thousands of people globally have it. Some of them have died, as would be the case with any flu; perhaps a few more than other flus, but nothing like the 1918 epidemic, and generally killing the elderly and vulnerable, like most flus.
It's neither cutting a swathe through the Chinese, really - about 80,000 cases in a population of 1.3bn - nor spreading like actual wildfire anywhere else. There are a few hundred reported infections in a few countries, and somewhere between single digits and a few dozen in others. It's been *three months* since the start of the Wuhan epidemic (first case 1 December 2019). The Chinese government started special measures in Wuhan in early January. Wuhan is a city of 11 million people (bigger by some way than greater London, and no less crowded); if this was going to be the world-ending plague the media seem to think it is, there should be millions infected, tens or hundreds of thousands dead in that city.
I assume the WHO is working to the worst-case scenario - based on this graph
.
The 1918 flu originally behaved like other flus, then became much nastier about a year later. One theory is that this was because people with mild symptoms were contained, while more severe cases were sent to centralised hospitals, thus creating a selection bias for the more dangerous form of the virus. Arguably if more people had been infected with the mild variant, the death rate from the later mutation could have been lower.
In any case, right now, the actual disease appears not to be generating the same symptomatic infection rate (probably partly because more of us are better nourished and less immuno-suppressed than the global population after 5 years of war) and it's not disproportionately infecting the young and healthy (which was the unusual and particularly damaging thing about the 1918 flu). So why is everyone running around like Chicken Little?
Either there's something we're not being told, or the world is primed for another outbreak of millennarianism - perhaps because of all the Thunberg/ER doomspreading - and has latched onto this, or this is the first real social-media-escalated mass global panic.
The primary issue all along has been a lack of confidence in the Chinese stats.It's neither cutting a swathe through the Chinese, really - about 80,000 cases in a population of 1.3bn - nor spreading like actual wildfire anywhere else. There are a few hundred reported infections in a few countries, and somewhere between single digits and a few dozen in others. It's been *three months* since the start of the Wuhan epidemic (first case 1 December 2019). The Chinese government started special measures in Wuhan in early January. Wuhan is a city of 11 million people (bigger by some way than greater London, and no less crowded); if this was going to be the world-ending plague the media seem to think it is, there should be millions infected, tens or hundreds of thousands dead in that city.
I assume the WHO is working to the worst-case scenario - based on this graph
.The 1918 flu originally behaved like other flus, then became much nastier about a year later. One theory is that this was because people with mild symptoms were contained, while more severe cases were sent to centralised hospitals, thus creating a selection bias for the more dangerous form of the virus. Arguably if more people had been infected with the mild variant, the death rate from the later mutation could have been lower.
In any case, right now, the actual disease appears not to be generating the same symptomatic infection rate (probably partly because more of us are better nourished and less immuno-suppressed than the global population after 5 years of war) and it's not disproportionately infecting the young and healthy (which was the unusual and particularly damaging thing about the 1918 flu). So why is everyone running around like Chicken Little?
Either there's something we're not being told, or the world is primed for another outbreak of millennarianism - perhaps because of all the Thunberg/ER doomspreading - and has latched onto this, or this is the first real social-media-escalated mass global panic.
I tend to agree the overreacting is out of all proportion with the threat but the sense is that there is a lot unknown about the virus: R0, mortality, reinfection etc.
My guidance has always been what has been happening in Asia outside of China: that doesn’t strike me as particularly bad news to be honest.
It has to be remembered that the 1918 pandemic was not contained like this one has been.
There was an excellent documentary about it on telly a couple of weeks ago.
They followed patient zero from his chicken farm, through the cookhouse in the training camp and onto the Western Front. The chief doctor wanted to quarantine the camp, but the colonel in charge said no, and the troops were sent to France.
The second outbreak in September was incubated on a ship. When they docked in France the troops were off-loaded and sent to the front, even though some had died and most were sick.
Found it...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0blmn5l "The flu that killed 50 million"
There was an excellent documentary about it on telly a couple of weeks ago.
They followed patient zero from his chicken farm, through the cookhouse in the training camp and onto the Western Front. The chief doctor wanted to quarantine the camp, but the colonel in charge said no, and the troops were sent to France.
The second outbreak in September was incubated on a ship. When they docked in France the troops were off-loaded and sent to the front, even though some had died and most were sick.
Found it...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0blmn5l "The flu that killed 50 million"
ambuletz said:
i really cba sifting through 125 pages of this topic. but from what i gather the mortality rate is 2% or less. so basically no different to a normal flu. right?
(id like the opinion of someone who doesnt read papers like DM, sun etc.)
Yes, no different if you think 0.1% and 2% are the same number.(id like the opinion of someone who doesnt read papers like DM, sun etc.)
And ignore other factors like R0, or time to symptoms, etc. etc.
ambuletz said:
i really cba sifting through 125 pages of this topic. but from what i gather the mortality rate is 2% or less. so basically no different to a normal flu. right?
(id like the opinion of someone who doesnt read papers like DM, sun etc.)
I'm not going to offer an opinion as I'm fed up with people picking stupid arguments on this site, but I quite like this page:(id like the opinion of someone who doesnt read papers like DM, sun etc.)
https://www.worldometers.info/
Corona and flu stats aside, I'm always amazed by the daily birth figures being over double the deaths. That is the thing that will be unsustainable in the medium to long-term.
ambuletz said:
i really cba sifting through 125 pages of this topic. but from what i gather the mortality rate is 2% or less. so basically no different to a normal flu. right?
(id like the opinion of someone who doesnt read papers like DM, sun etc.)
Yes was clear from the start, it become convoluted as people said, well posted 'accounts' from random twitter accounts showing more dead with thousands of bodies cremanted secretly. Countless times the Chinese figures were fake, but now being used as reference by same posters...(id like the opinion of someone who doesnt read papers like DM, sun etc.)
I'm sure a million dead was touted at one point.
Well it is clear, if you are over 80 and a prexisting condition you have a very high chance of dying. Smoking makes you a higher risk as well.
The rest it is less than 1%, based on 3 months of data, showing a trend.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviru...
The WHO report on the virus. Interesting reading.
The WHO report on the virus. Interesting reading.
Ridgemont said:
Given the eviscerating of the CDC over there I’m not sure that’s an unreasonable reaction. The US is turning into the other shoe to drop.
That is somewhat misleading. What one must remember is that our health systems are not government run. At least the majority are not. An example. The Government, (through the FDA & CDC) just approved Corona testing to be done locally at all private capable labs throughout the country, not just through the CDC. That just allowed the entire lab capacity of the U.S. to be brought to bear. Thousands of labs as opposed to just CDC locations. This will allow quicker determination of those infected, their isolation, and hopefully containment. These findings will be reported to the CDC for tracking and coordination purposes but the CDC will not have to do all of the work. This happened a day or two ago. I know it is fashionable (on a certain thread or two) to hammer the US, but in this case, private market capacity is far greater than what government can do. We are a different paradigm, therefore, any budget cut (which none has occurred this year) to the CDC is not going to effect that near to the point it would if we had a government run system similar to the NHS.
Ayahuasca said:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviru...
The WHO report on the virus. Interesting reading.
Get in the fooking sea with your "Interesting reading", implying you've read, learned and inwardly digested that lot since it was published. The WHO report on the virus. Interesting reading.
Go on then, what's your TL:DR summary?
Jimbeaux said:
Ridgemont said:
Given the eviscerating of the CDC over there I’m not sure that’s an unreasonable reaction. The US is turning into the other shoe to drop.
That is somewhat misleading. What one must remember is that our health systems are not government run. At least the majority are not. An example. The Government, (through the FDA & CDC) just approved Corona testing to be done locally at all private capable labs throughout the country, not just through the CDC. That just allowed the entire lab capacity of the U.S. to be brought to bear. Thousands of labs as opposed to just CDC locations. This will allow quicker determination of those infected, their isolation, and hopefully containment. These findings will be reported to the CDC for tracking and coordination purposes but the CDC will not have to do all of the work. This happened a day or two ago. I know it is fashionable (on a certain thread or two) to hammer the US, but in this case, private market capacity is far greater than what government can do. We are a different paradigm, therefore, any budget cut (which none has occurred this year) to the CDC is not going to effect that near to the point it would if we had a government run system similar to the NHS.
eharding said:
So what is the going rate in the US for a private covid-19 swab test? Have you had one?
The majority have private insurance. That will pay for that. Those on government programs, Medicare, or the charity program, Medicaid will use federal funding. Again, with any of these, it can be processed there and not do through a more limited number of CDC labs. The CDC can gather their data. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff