How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)
Discussion
TeamD said:
psi310398 said:
Don't be. It's probably a form of contagious Tourette's picked up from some rabid Remainers
. The gestation period is about three years, I believe.
Nope, it's three years of listening to your s. The gestation period is about three years, I believe.
t. t. i believe you and psi are singing from a similar hymn sheet regarding brexit. the hymn sheet psi has is the non sweary version Edited by wc98 on Friday 5th April 18:58
Vanden Saab said:
Gareth1974 said:
djc206 said:
psi310398 said:
Your view, of course.
There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
You may well be right but our friend Jim is under the impression that a good deal could have been had already. I don’t see how.There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
Personally I don’t see leaving and then negotiating would work. It would appear to be very cap in hand to me.
The Customs Union idea that seems to be gathering momentum would largely prevent the N.I. issue/need for the backstop that we requested, but gives us less freedom than May’s plan.
Under the backstop, N.I. would essentially be in a customs union anyway, but if the rest of the UK were in the same customs union, the DUP issue of N.I. and UK being different wouldn’t apply to such an extent.
Things it doesn’t solve include things like VAT checks, but the majority of the current sticking points are resolved.
Vanden Saab said:
Gareth1974 said:
djc206 said:
psi310398 said:
Your view, of course.
There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
You may well be right but our friend Jim is under the impression that a good deal could have been had already. I don’t see how.There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
Personally I don’t see leaving and then negotiating would work. It would appear to be very cap in hand to me.
The Customs Union idea that seems to be gathering momentum would largely prevent the N.I. issue/need for the backstop that we requested, but gives us less freedom than May’s plan.
As you point out, the backstop is still required if we go down a CU route.
The CU route is a blind alley IMO, only chosen to try and get Jeremy on board.
Worth also pointing out, re border in the Irish Sea not acceptable to unionists. It actually strengthens the union, as polling shows that the NI back stop puts moderate nationalists in favour of the Union, and subsequently 67% of NI want the union in this situation. In any other situation, that 67% union support erodes rapidly. Oh the irony....
Gareth1974 said:
Vanden Saab said:
Gareth1974 said:
djc206 said:
psi310398 said:
Your view, of course.
There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
You may well be right but our friend Jim is under the impression that a good deal could have been had already. I don’t see how.There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
Personally I don’t see leaving and then negotiating would work. It would appear to be very cap in hand to me.
The Customs Union idea that seems to be gathering momentum would largely prevent the N.I. issue/need for the backstop that we requested, but gives us less freedom than May’s plan.
Under the backstop, N.I. would essentially be in a customs union anyway, but if the rest of the UK were in the same customs union, the DUP issue of N.I. and UK being different wouldn’t apply to such an extent.
Things it doesn’t solve include things like VAT checks, but the majority of the current sticking points are resolved.
Gareth1974 said:
djc206 said:
psi310398 said:
Your view, of course.
There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
You may well be right but our friend Jim is under the impression that a good deal could have been had already. I don’t see how.There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
Personally I don’t see leaving and then negotiating would work. It would appear to be very cap in hand to me.
The Customs Union idea that seems to be gathering momentum would largely prevent the N.I. issue/need for the backstop that we requested, but gives us less freedom than May’s plan.
Or judged by an independent arbitration panel?
That's two ways to turn it into an actually pretty decent deal, instead of the absolutely worst option possible.
soupdragon1 said:
It's the single market that the main issue, as that involves physical checks, which requires physical infrastructure.
Indeed, potentially less contentious than other options though, the continuing freedom of movement of people over the border might be an acceptable compromise for people both sides of the border. Of course, it’s then a version of leaving that’s softer than most leavers wished for.
Sway said:
Gareth1974 said:
djc206 said:
psi310398 said:
Your view, of course.
There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
You may well be right but our friend Jim is under the impression that a good deal could have been had already. I don’t see how.There are plenty here who think that a much better deal could have been obtained by first leaving and then negotiating. It still can, in my view.
Their and my view, of course.
Personally I don’t see leaving and then negotiating would work. It would appear to be very cap in hand to me.
The Customs Union idea that seems to be gathering momentum would largely prevent the N.I. issue/need for the backstop that we requested, but gives us less freedom than May’s plan.
Or judged by an independent arbitration panel?
That's two ways to turn it into an actually pretty decent deal, instead of the absolutely worst option possible.
The backstop could kick in if we have not reached an agreement and end when we have.
oh wait ....
Elysium said:
The issue is that, if we fail to agree a trade deal, once the transition period expires we end up in a position akin to a no-deal withdrawal.
We tried to agree several solutions in advance, but could not come up with anything that would work. So the UK tried to separate NI from the mainland, which the DUP blew the whistle on. The UK wide backstop was our proposal:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/07/b...
In fairness to May (I can't quite believe I am writing that), so did try to time limit it initially, but when that failed she agreed the current draft and told the EU to get the EU 27 to approve it.
hmmm. from the link.We tried to agree several solutions in advance, but could not come up with anything that would work. So the UK tried to separate NI from the mainland, which the DUP blew the whistle on. The UK wide backstop was our proposal:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/07/b...
In fairness to May (I can't quite believe I am writing that), so did try to time limit it initially, but when that failed she agreed the current draft and told the EU to get the EU 27 to approve it.
"In essence, the UK’s proposal is for the whole of the UK to remain in the customs union for a limited period after the end of the transition period – so it would leave the EU in March 2019 and the single market in December 2020, but stay in the customs union for longer. The idea is “to apply a temporary customs arrangement ... between the UK and the EU” that would allow the UK to sign free trade deals with other countries (but not implement the parts of them relating to tariffs, rendering them largely pointless). The proposed UK backstop “will only be in place until the future customs arrangement can be introduced”, which the government “expects” to be the end of December 2021 at the latest."
First, there is no clarity on who calls time on the backstop and when. This is a problem: pro-Brexit ministers and MPs would like the UK to be able to declare it over unilaterally, so those trade deals can kick in. But the EU (including Ireland) did not agree in December, and is unlikely to agree now, to a time limit that could end with the Irish border problem still unresolved:
still no evidence that may proposed a backstop from which the uk could not unilaterally withdraw.
wc98 said:
Elysium said:
The issue is that, if we fail to agree a trade deal, once the transition period expires we end up in a position akin to a no-deal withdrawal.
We tried to agree several solutions in advance, but could not come up with anything that would work. So the UK tried to separate NI from the mainland, which the DUP blew the whistle on. The UK wide backstop was our proposal:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/07/b...
In fairness to May (I can't quite believe I am writing that), so did try to time limit it initially, but when that failed she agreed the current draft and told the EU to get the EU 27 to approve it.
hmmm. from the link.We tried to agree several solutions in advance, but could not come up with anything that would work. So the UK tried to separate NI from the mainland, which the DUP blew the whistle on. The UK wide backstop was our proposal:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/07/b...
In fairness to May (I can't quite believe I am writing that), so did try to time limit it initially, but when that failed she agreed the current draft and told the EU to get the EU 27 to approve it.
"In essence, the UK’s proposal is for the whole of the UK to remain in the customs union for a limited period after the end of the transition period – so it would leave the EU in March 2019 and the single market in December 2020, but stay in the customs union for longer. The idea is “to apply a temporary customs arrangement ... between the UK and the EU” that would allow the UK to sign free trade deals with other countries (but not implement the parts of them relating to tariffs, rendering them largely pointless). The proposed UK backstop “will only be in place until the future customs arrangement can be introduced”, which the government “expects” to be the end of December 2021 at the latest."
First, there is no clarity on who calls time on the backstop and when. This is a problem: pro-Brexit ministers and MPs would like the UK to be able to declare it over unilaterally, so those trade deals can kick in. But the EU (including Ireland) did not agree in December, and is unlikely to agree now, to a time limit that could end with the Irish border problem still unresolved:
still no evidence that may proposed a backstop from which the uk could not unilaterally withdraw.
citizensm1th said:
Tuna said:
citizensm1th said:
But us remainers are finding the squirming and squirrel spotting very amusing
If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again? Not sure why you'd find that amusing.Labour complaining the Government won't compromise.
Seemingly after same had simply pointed out that the EU will not re-open the negation. As far as I can see its not in the government's gift to compromise or change the deal.
i.e. the purpose of these talks therefore seems to be a final attempt to get this simple idea through some thick socialist skulls and/or set them up to look like the people who wrecked the final chance of any deal and forced the EU to throw us out.
Carl_Manchester said:
Probably not worth posting here until the dust has settled on the talks.
I assume that Customs Union and end of free movement were discussed by Labour and dismissed by May as ‘we have already been told no by EU’ and that is why talks have ended.
The EU are open to a Customs Union https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-eu-...I assume that Customs Union and end of free movement were discussed by Labour and dismissed by May as ‘we have already been told no by EU’ and that is why talks have ended.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff