Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Digga said:
longblackcoat said:
.It’s a political construct and that trumps economics.
Non political construct or empire ever trumped economics. Never in history. Why should this superannuated shower of gravy surfing clowns be any different?Many of the posts on this thread are people saying exactly what Central Bankers have and are saying - Nagel, Weidmann before; even Lagarde. If he doesn't know what the central Bankers are actually saying, he's not exactly adding anything.
Although, some of the zealots here don't even know what the ECB is or does.
Digga said:
longblackcoat said:
.It’s a political construct and that trumps economics.
Non political construct or empire ever trumped economics. Never in history. Why should this superannuated shower of gravy surfing clowns be any different?We even see country’s tearing themselves apart regularly, we see the US turning into a slow trainwreck at the moment for instance. Less than 30 years ago EU member states were involved in a bloody civil war and genocide, and not long before that major EU countries were dictatorships
With the Euro, as a currency, they can kick the can as far as they like but what will trump that is politics and economics
At some point one or more members will leave or be kicked out .. the tensions are in clear view
Will the EU remain as 27 I doubt it, will politics, economics or events intervene .. absolutely they will
Will the Euro survive, quite possibly, but not necessarily in its current form or spread
longblackcoat said:
Who said it was?
But they’ve done it for a very long time. Guess what? They’ll keep on doing it.
Those on this thread who are the true believers can circle- jerk themselves all day long about how the Euro is going to fail - my prediction is that it just won’t happen. It’s a political construct and that trumps economics.
Let’s say you’re right for a moment (I don’t think you are but let’s assume). What do you think the long term economic effects will be of politics triumphant over economics? But they’ve done it for a very long time. Guess what? They’ll keep on doing it.
Those on this thread who are the true believers can circle- jerk themselves all day long about how the Euro is going to fail - my prediction is that it just won’t happen. It’s a political construct and that trumps economics.
If economics are being forced and squeezed to accommodate the powerful political forces, how will the economics be moulded and how will it play out in the smaller southern member states? Will it be beneficial or will it achieve further debt/deflation? If the latter, where will it find a pressure relief valve?
Andy Zarse said:
longblackcoat said:
Gargamel said:
I don't think anyone on the thread actually expects the Euro to fail
Exactly.Remind me what the thread title is?
So, when is the Euro going to “fail”? Feel free to provide your own definition of “fail”. Shall we agree to accept a date +/- 12 months?
(Should say I am fairly agnostic on the question, though I do enjoy following the arguments!)
The debate moved on in 2013, as the question WAS settled. The Euro DID collapse in 2011/12. It was rescued/reset/bailed out, call it what you will by the SNB.
Anybody who thinks it wasn’t, for ph ideology purposes, then all I will say is you weren’t being paid or involved in Chuff/Euro interactions back in 2011/12.
Now, it’s what happens going forwards. This is rather important for quite a few of us because well #life. For myself, the fate of the Euro and its “value” has been of primary importance to my income every day for the last decade. I very much hope indeed the Euro survives, however it does so!
Anybody who thinks it wasn’t, for ph ideology purposes, then all I will say is you weren’t being paid or involved in Chuff/Euro interactions back in 2011/12.
Now, it’s what happens going forwards. This is rather important for quite a few of us because well #life. For myself, the fate of the Euro and its “value” has been of primary importance to my income every day for the last decade. I very much hope indeed the Euro survives, however it does so!
longblackcoat said:
Gargamel said:
I don't think anyone on the thread actually expects the Euro to fail
Exactly.Remind me what the thread title is?
That is not a statement, it’s an invitation to discuss. It’s ok to discuss ideas and examine opinions, we don’t have to take one position and cling to it, we can assimilate new data, ask questions and debate, that’s when really good conversation emerges, not all this yah boo bulls
t. I learnt a lot from Stephan and others on this thread, gave me different perspectives. Keep an open mind eh?
DeejRC said:
The debate moved on in 2013, as the question WAS settled. The Euro DID collapse in 2011/12. It was rescued/reset/bailed out, call it what you will by the SNB.
Anybody who thinks it wasn’t, for ph ideology purposes, then all I will say is you weren’t being paid or involved in Chuff/Euro interactions back in 2011/12.
Now, it’s what happens going forwards. This is rather important for quite a few of us because well #life. For myself, the fate of the Euro and its “value” has been of primary importance to my income every day for the last decade. I very much hope indeed the Euro survives, however it does so!
I assume you are suggesting the CHF euro peg in 2011 rescued the euro. Not sure I would agree. Anybody who thinks it wasn’t, for ph ideology purposes, then all I will say is you weren’t being paid or involved in Chuff/Euro interactions back in 2011/12.
Now, it’s what happens going forwards. This is rather important for quite a few of us because well #life. For myself, the fate of the Euro and its “value” has been of primary importance to my income every day for the last decade. I very much hope indeed the Euro survives, however it does so!
Mrr T said:
I assume you are suggesting the CHF euro peg in 2011 rescued the euro. Not sure I would agree.
It wasn't the actual ditching of the peg, it was the huge amount of Euro's they bought trying to keep it. Probably the only thing that put a floor into the currency value at the time. Mrr T said:
DeejRC said:
The debate moved on in 2013, as the question WAS settled. The Euro DID collapse in 2011/12. It was rescued/reset/bailed out, call it what you will by the SNB.
Anybody who thinks it wasn’t, for ph ideology purposes, then all I will say is you weren’t being paid or involved in Chuff/Euro interactions back in 2011/12.
Now, it’s what happens going forwards. This is rather important for quite a few of us because well #life. For myself, the fate of the Euro and its “value” has been of primary importance to my income every day for the last decade. I very much hope indeed the Euro survives, however it does so!
I assume you are suggesting the CHF euro peg in 2011 rescued the euro. Not sure I would agree. Anybody who thinks it wasn’t, for ph ideology purposes, then all I will say is you weren’t being paid or involved in Chuff/Euro interactions back in 2011/12.
Now, it’s what happens going forwards. This is rather important for quite a few of us because well #life. For myself, the fate of the Euro and its “value” has been of primary importance to my income every day for the last decade. I very much hope indeed the Euro survives, however it does so!
DeejRC said:
Oh well, good for you. Enjoy rehashing 2011/12, I’ll stick with now and working out the future.
With Nagel the continuity candidate in at the Bundesbank, do you think much will change? I've voiced previously that Central Bankers make quite good opposition (to governments), I can see the Bundesbank being at odds with the ECs political ambitions for sometime.I think the supervisory side of the ECB (one of things it actually does do - not made up s
t), is going to have to step up it's game. It might be an area Germany could push an agenda. Its a bit of a backdoor.DeejRC said:
The debate moved on in 2013, as the question WAS settled. The Euro DID collapse in 2011/12. It was rescued/reset/bailed out, call it what you will by the SNB.
Anybody who thinks it wasn’t, for ph ideology purposes, then all I will say is you weren’t being paid or involved in Chuff/Euro interactions back in 2011/12.
Naturally I get your long held point, but some folk seem - wilfully or otherwise and it matters not which - seem incapable of grasping this. Anybody who thinks it wasn’t, for ph ideology purposes, then all I will say is you weren’t being paid or involved in Chuff/Euro interactions back in 2011/12.
I'm not typically a Euro doomsayer but this might be an interesting year for the project, for most of the projects lifetime there hasn't been any inflation - that appears to be changing. More likely the bloc would drop off a couple of Southern European countries than a full collapse though.
speedy_thrills said:
I'm not typically a Euro doomsayer but this might be an interesting year for the project, for most of the projects lifetime there hasn't been any inflation - that appears to be changing. More likely the bloc would drop off a couple of Southern European countries than a full collapse though.
Many nations, including the UK, are carrying huge debt as a result of COVID. The ability to cope with this is far less certain for those within the single currency, at a time when other central banks have either already raised base rates (e.g. UK) or a tipped to begin doing do (Fed) very soon. The one size fits all rate is not going to suit everyone.Digga said:
speedy_thrills said:
I'm not typically a Euro doomsayer but this might be an interesting year for the project, for most of the projects lifetime there hasn't been any inflation - that appears to be changing. More likely the bloc would drop off a couple of Southern European countries than a full collapse though.
Many nations, including the UK, are carrying huge debt as a result of COVID. The ability to cope with this is far less certain for those within the single currency, at a time when other central banks have either already raised base rates (e.g. UK) or a tipped to begin doing do (Fed) very soon. The one size fits all rate is not going to suit everyone.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11...
I'm quite suprised how relatively little atention this is getting.
A wage-price spiral is looming, an extra problem is that the situation is the same in all the regions. This normally should lead to higher interest rates. However many country's and certain Covid affected sectors of the economy can't cope with higher interest rates. So tga
We're probably heading for a bumby ride.
DeltonaS said:
Digga said:
speedy_thrills said:
I'm not typically a Euro doomsayer but this might be an interesting year for the project, for most of the projects lifetime there hasn't been any inflation - that appears to be changing. More likely the bloc would drop off a couple of Southern European countries than a full collapse though.
Many nations, including the UK, are carrying huge debt as a result of COVID. The ability to cope with this is far less certain for those within the single currency, at a time when other central banks have either already raised base rates (e.g. UK) or a tipped to begin doing do (Fed) very soon. The one size fits all rate is not going to suit everyone.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11...
I'm quite suprised how relatively little atention this is getting.
A wage-price spiral is looming, an extra problem is that the situation is the same in all the regions. This normally should lead to higher interest rates. However many country's and certain Covid affected sectors of the economy can't cope with higher interest rates. So tga
We're probably heading for a bumby ride.
speedy_thrills said:
DeltonaS said:
Digga said:
speedy_thrills said:
I'm not typically a Euro doomsayer but this might be an interesting year for the project, for most of the projects lifetime there hasn't been any inflation - that appears to be changing. More likely the bloc would drop off a couple of Southern European countries than a full collapse though.
Many nations, including the UK, are carrying huge debt as a result of COVID. The ability to cope with this is far less certain for those within the single currency, at a time when other central banks have either already raised base rates (e.g. UK) or a tipped to begin doing do (Fed) very soon. The one size fits all rate is not going to suit everyone.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11...
I'm quite suprised how relatively little atention this is getting.
A wage-price spiral is looming, an extra problem is that the situation is the same in all the regions. This normally should lead to higher interest rates. However many country's and certain Covid affected sectors of the economy can't cope with higher interest rates. So tga
We're probably heading for a bumby ride.
But, anyway the US will announce its inflation rate tomorrow and the fed is talking of four or five rate rises this year
Some say inflation may hit as high as 10% who knows, we’ll find out tomorrow
The U.K. is likely to raise rates so the pressure will be on the EU even though legarde is saying it’s just transitory
speedy_thrills said:
DeltonaS said:
Digga said:
speedy_thrills said:
I'm not typically a Euro doomsayer but this might be an interesting year for the project, for most of the projects lifetime there hasn't been any inflation - that appears to be changing. More likely the bloc would drop off a couple of Southern European countries than a full collapse though.
Many nations, including the UK, are carrying huge debt as a result of COVID. The ability to cope with this is far less certain for those within the single currency, at a time when other central banks have either already raised base rates (e.g. UK) or a tipped to begin doing do (Fed) very soon. The one size fits all rate is not going to suit everyone.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11...
I'm quite suprised how relatively little atention this is getting.
A wage-price spiral is looming, an extra problem is that the situation is the same in all the regions. This normally should lead to higher interest rates. However many country's and certain Covid affected sectors of the economy can't cope with higher interest rates. So tga
We're probably heading for a bumby ride.
For the ECB, they have a disparate set of nations. Some wealthy and prudent (Germany), some wealthy but profligate (France), some very much struggling to get economies moving and with less sound fiscal prudence (Italy, Spain), some with f
ked economies and equally fked public spending (Greece). And in theory, they have to share a common interest rate. However, each nation's bonds have their own, individual rates and this is less easy for the ECB to influence.For each nation, post COVID, the affordability of the interest repayments is going to be the crucial issue moving forward. I agree the USA is by no means home clear in this regard either.
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