How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 14)
Discussion
Murph7355 said:
If Frost is up to the task (and I think he is) he will be playing the exact opposite game.
Both sides know LPF is the bigger deal. We need to be free of shackles to suit ourselves, the EU are petrified of an energised competitor on their doorstep. Keeping us handcuffed to their rules, without any say in them, nor any independent arbitration when their own member states do not stick them would be perfect for them.
Frost MUST know this. There is no other FTA the EU has, nor anyone has, that has such strictures. We would be utterly stupid to sign up to anything more than has been agreed with Canada or that the WTO lays out. I think Boris knows that if he does this, no matter how clever the EU might be to wordsmith it, he will be toast.
What "premium" do you think they have us nailed to on subsidies?
Well, I can see right now - they could do exactly that on arbitration. It would be foolish, risky and economically damaging BUT its too parochial an area for man in the street to understand. They might go with populist win and spin it. Both sides know LPF is the bigger deal. We need to be free of shackles to suit ourselves, the EU are petrified of an energised competitor on their doorstep. Keeping us handcuffed to their rules, without any say in them, nor any independent arbitration when their own member states do not stick them would be perfect for them.
Frost MUST know this. There is no other FTA the EU has, nor anyone has, that has such strictures. We would be utterly stupid to sign up to anything more than has been agreed with Canada or that the WTO lays out. I think Boris knows that if he does this, no matter how clever the EU might be to wordsmith it, he will be toast.
What "premium" do you think they have us nailed to on subsidies?
I'm not sure that is survivable either - but I wouldn't put anything past them right now, as long as Facebook says yes.
In this game, I'd probably walk now. Its probably the easiest sell to the country. It will call the EUs bluff, and stop the ongoing play for time. TBH, I think he's lost his b
ks...But edit to add, just seen JSF above - maybe he has a pair after all.
Edited by stongle on Wednesday 14th October 13:31
Edited by stongle on Wednesday 14th October 13:31
stongle said:
Well, I can see right now - they could do exactly that on arbitration. It would be foolish, risky and economically damaging BUT its too parochial an area for man in the street to understand. They might go with populist win and spin it.
I'm not sure that is survivable either - but I wouldn't put anything past them right now, as long as Facebook says yes.
In this game, I'd probably walk now. Its probably the easiest sell to the country. It will call the EUs bluff, and stop the ongoing play for time. TBH, I think he's lost his bks...
EU has never negotiated with such an economically important country on its border before. Their game from the very start has been to try and control the country they are negotiating with, this has always worked for them in the past because the smaller party had too much to lose by not complying.I'm not sure that is survivable either - but I wouldn't put anything past them right now, as long as Facebook says yes.
In this game, I'd probably walk now. Its probably the easiest sell to the country. It will call the EUs bluff, and stop the ongoing play for time. TBH, I think he's lost his b
ks...That game was working with May because she didn't believe in the Brexit project and was petrified of any downturn in trade, she didn't understand the EU game is always about control and was not an FTA process.
It's a different situation now with Boris and his majority. He and Frost know this negotiation is not for an FTA, it's about who controls the country, the UK or the EU.
Either the EU move on this and accept they have lost control, or Boris walks. Barnier is still breifing the EU as though he is dealing with May, which is a serious mistake on his part.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Really. The UK has a reputation built up over many years for acting with integrity in its international dealings. I seem to remember Dom R complaining about the PRC breaching an international agreement. Never believed I would see a UK government deliberately breach an treaty particularly one which the government had itself agreed and passed into law.don'tbesilly said:
This brings us back to both the WA and PD which both point out the need for both parties to negotiate in good faith.
When one party decides both the WA & PD are irrelevant because they think throwing their weight around will lead to capitulation (might have worked with May/Robbins) they act all surprised when the other party takes action which puts the other party on a crash diet of reality.
Talking of which, reality, it's something Merkel is urging Macron to grasp hold of, it looks like Merkel is going to be disappointed.
The PD is not legally binding and BJ has made it plain he does not plan to follow it. The WA does include good faith provisions which the UK has broken but the EU has not. I expect the court cases will be fun. When one party decides both the WA & PD are irrelevant because they think throwing their weight around will lead to capitulation (might have worked with May/Robbins) they act all surprised when the other party takes action which puts the other party on a crash diet of reality.
Talking of which, reality, it's something Merkel is urging Macron to grasp hold of, it looks like Merkel is going to be disappointed.
Mrr T said:
Really. The UK has a reputation built up over many years for acting with integrity in its international dealings. I seem to remember Dom R complaining about the PRC breaching an international agreement. Never believed I would see a UK government deliberately breach an treaty particularly one which the government had itself agreed and passed into law.
Well I hope you can come to terms, one day, with the 'shame'.You might realise, in retrospect, that is was an uncomfortable but necessary tactic when faced with an organisation that isn't willing to accept a fair split.
jsf said:
EU has never negotiated with such an economically important country on its border before. Their game from the very start has been to try and control the country they are negotiating with, this has always worked for them in the past because the smaller party had too much to lose by not complying.
That game was working with May because she didn't believe in the Brexit project and was petrified of any downturn in trade, she didn't understand the EU game is always about control and was not an FTA process.
It's a different situation now with Boris and his majority. He and Frost know this negotiation is not for an FTA, it's about who controls the country, the UK or the EU.
Either the EU move on this and accept they have lost control, or Boris walks. Barnier is still breifing the EU as though he is dealing with May, which is a serious mistake on his part.
Well if that's the case, BJ better be calling them on it today - or he is allowing this to drag onwards (and time and political attrition may get the EC what they want)...That game was working with May because she didn't believe in the Brexit project and was petrified of any downturn in trade, she didn't understand the EU game is always about control and was not an FTA process.
It's a different situation now with Boris and his majority. He and Frost know this negotiation is not for an FTA, it's about who controls the country, the UK or the EU.
Either the EU move on this and accept they have lost control, or Boris walks. Barnier is still breifing the EU as though he is dealing with May, which is a serious mistake on his part.
Mrr T said:
Really. The UK has a reputation built up over many years for acting with integrity in its international dealings. I seem to remember Dom R complaining about the PRC breaching an international agreement. Never believed I would see a UK government deliberately breach an treaty particularly one which the government had itself agreed and passed into law.
It's done it multiple times in your lifetime, as has every major nation or political body, including your precious EU.With regards to the WA, UK has not yet done anything, the bill isn't even law yet.
jsf said:
Mrr T said:
No I do not. Oddly enough when a country signs a treaty with other countries, and then passes the treaty into law it normally means it has agreed something and will abide by it. I know being honest and trust worthy does not come easily to BJ and chums but it is the way the UK has established a reputation for being a country which acts with integrity.
Have you read the WA?There are sections in it that guarantees unfettered access for trade flows between NI and GB and also confirms NI remains in the UK customs union and internal market.
The mechanism used to manage the cross border trade within the island of Ireland is not defined in detail, the joint committee was supposed to finalise this.
Mrr T said:
I have read the WA have you. The language you quote on unfettered access from NI to the UK is restricted for EU law. The Committee should decide on how the protocol is applied and has a dispute resolution process. Why has BJ not used that?
It's not applicable yet, we are still in the TP.Why hasn't the Committee resolved all the issues yet? Why dont you ask the EU? They are an equal party to the agreement and are the party that threatened a maximalised aproach to implementation.
Jazzer77 said:
I guess this is why big businesses wanted us to stay in the EU? It seems like the big businesses wanted the cars to be sold across the channel duty free.Jazzer77 said:
Thats puzzling. Surely they expect to sell far more e-cars to us then we sell to them. Why damage their own exports to the UK?jamoor said:
Jazzer77 said:
I guess this is why big businesses wanted us to stay in the EU?At the moment it doesn't really affect any existing manufacturers in the UK(?)
Hilarious spin though. Anyone would think that we're reaching crunch point.
jsf said:
Mrr T said:
Really. The UK has a reputation built up over many years for acting with integrity in its international dealings. I seem to remember Dom R complaining about the PRC breaching an international agreement. Never believed I would see a UK government deliberately breach an treaty particularly one which the government had itself agreed and passed into law.
It's done it multiple times in your lifetime, as has every major nation or political body, including your precious EU.With regards to the WA, UK has not yet done anything, the bill isn't even law yet.
Mrr T said:
don'tbesilly said:
This brings us back to both the WA and PD which both point out the need for both parties to negotiate in good faith.
When one party decides both the WA & PD are irrelevant because they think throwing their weight around will lead to capitulation (might have worked with May/Robbins) they act all surprised when the other party takes action which puts the other party on a crash diet of reality.
Talking of which, reality, it's something Merkel is urging Macron to grasp hold of, it looks like Merkel is going to be disappointed.
The PD is not legally binding and BJ has made it plain he does not plan to follow it. The WA does include good faith provisions which the UK has broken but the EU has not. I expect the court cases will be fun. When one party decides both the WA & PD are irrelevant because they think throwing their weight around will lead to capitulation (might have worked with May/Robbins) they act all surprised when the other party takes action which puts the other party on a crash diet of reality.
Talking of which, reality, it's something Merkel is urging Macron to grasp hold of, it looks like Merkel is going to be disappointed.
I'd expect the one case to be not as straightforward as you seem to think it will be, even if it comes to pass.
Mrr T said:
Can I have some example and not ones which say so and so may have broken the1830 treaty on fishing on a Sunday. The WA contains a good faith provision. A majority government presenting a bill to the HOC which breaches the WA is a clear breach of good faith. The court case will be fun.
I've given examples already in this thread.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff