Rishi Sunak - Prime Minister

[turbobloke]

loafer123 said:

Except it isn’t core voters which win or lose Labour an election, it is the floating undecided voters…

And as pointed out by none other than the Guardian, Labour's poll lead is fragile with Starmer getting the poll nods but without winning hearts and minds.

Hence the sensitivity from those who don't support Starmer or Labour but give the appearance of doing so. Actual Labour supporters will surely know the score.

[anonymoususer]

Smoking ban bill to be dumped due to time restraints re election

[Disastrous]

turbobloke said:

Riff Raff said:

I'm not sure all this argy bargy about VAT on private school fees belongs in the Sunak thread.

So, to change the subject, let's celebrate people making fun of him.

The change is fair enough, this is the RS thread, and humour is usually a good thing,

Had to look him up (NP).

I've seen a Nobel Laureate fall off an office chair, no big deal, no celebration. Personal angle stuff is naff from wherever; time to focus on what matters in this context surely.

Safe to say you haven’t seen it?

[Mr Penguin]

eharding said:

Of the 21 listed there, 14 already qualify for the UK old age pension, and all but three would become pensioners in the next parliament (and one of those is Natalie Elphicke...) - so it's hardly surprising that they're retiring from Parliament.

I'd do the same analysis for the number of Tory MPs standing down, but I haven't got all afternoon.

I saw an analysis (maybe last year so not up to date) that said something like 60 are in marginal constituencies and had other careers to go back to and it is no wonder that the people leaving are those with easy options.

Obviously the electoral pendulum is the main driver but if you watch Times Radio's Exit Interviews and read quotes from those stepping down a lot is also to do with the work environment, which seems to get worse every year. I don't think I'd be up for a load of hard campaigning work just to have the whips bullying me, 80 hour work week, death threats, and not even being in government (and that's if you win).

[bitchstewie]

Poor chap can't get a break

Questioners at Sunak warehouse speech turn out to be Tory councillors

[captain_cynic]

bhstewie said:

Poor chap can't get a break

Questioners at Sunak warehouse speech turn out to be Tory councillors

Can't even rig a meeting... And people think it's a good idea to give these incompetent diots another term?

[bitchstewie]

captain_cynic said:

Can't even rig a meeting... And people think it's a good idea to give these incompetent diots another term?

"integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level"

[119]

bhstewie said:

Poor chap can't get a break

Questioners at Sunak warehouse speech turn out to be Tory councillors

Keep up at the back.

[ajprice]

[S600BSB]

bhstewie said:

Poor chap can't get a break

Questioners at Sunak warehouse speech turn out to be Tory councillors

Just heard him abused about this on the radio. Seems to have also asked a Wales supporter whether he was looking forward to the Euros.. Utter knob.

[Bill]

S600BSB said:

Just heard him abused about this on the radio. Seems to have also asked a Wales supporter whether he was looking forward to the Euros.. Utter knob.

Surely this is deliberate? I know they're mind-buggeringly incompetent, but surely this is a stitch up? Did he kick his press secretary's cat...

[captain_cynic]

Bill said:

S600BSB said:

Just heard him abused about this on the radio. Seems to have also asked a Wales supporter whether he was looking forward to the Euros.. Utter knob.

Surely this is deliberate? I know they're mind-buggeringly incompetent, but surely this is a stitch up? Did he kick his press secretary's cat...

I don't know, never blame malice for what can easily be explained by stupidity.

I can't imagine Rishi's the kind of bloke who watches the footy religiously (aren't they all Cricket mad up in Yorkshire).

[S600BSB]

anonymoususer said:

Smoking ban bill to be dumped due to time restraints re election

Really disappointed if correct.

[Talksteer]

OzzyR1 said:

ChocolateFrog said:

Sway said:

Agreed.

Tax is as much about influencing the actions of the populace as it is generating revenue.

Do we really want to discourage people sending kids to private schools and reducing the pressures on the state system?

The money generated would more than offset the handful of kids that get to enjoy overfilled and understaffed schools with the rest of us.

It's such a weak argument that you and everyone else with skin in the game makes its laughable.

Conservatively I've make it an extra 2 billion quid, assuming average fees of £20k a year.

I think the system will cope with a few extra Wills rocking up.

"With schooling, every domestic child who opts out of the private system to avoid about £3,000 of VAT will then need about £8,000 in taxpayer money annually to fund their state education. The potential result? A substantial threat to the Treasury’s ability to fund improved state education outcomes".

"There are differing opinions as to how much the tax rise is likely to affect demand for private school places... I have heard that a leading industry consultant advises schools to budget for a near 25% decline by 2030. Notably, at a 25% decline, the net impact becomes negative as the cost of educating private school leavers in the state system would exceed all VAT gains".

From an article in the (notoriously right-wing) Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/...


I've got no skin in the game, don't have kids - just an alternative viewpoint I read.

I hope that if VAT on fees is introduced, it is for new pupils only not blanket across the board at Day 1.

Most parents with children at public/private schools could likely manage the increase, but for those who can't it would be unfair on the kids to have to change environment especially if in the GCSE / A-level period.

If it's brought in, it needs to be managed correctly.

It's been discussed on multiple other threads but the key points to cover are:

1: Average secondary day school fees are ~£17k
2: Average secondary pupil in state school costs £7k
3: The primary benefit of private schools is who you are educated next to rather than the quality of the facilities
4: Private schools fees have massively outpaced general inflation in the last 25 years (Rory Stewart point out that in todays money his Eton fees were about £8k)

Given that schools are incentivised to have all their places occupied they are likely to use all their knowledge and skills to accommodate the 20% VAT cost by some combination of fee rise and cutting of costs that keeps all their places filled. Given the £10k per pupil premium vs a state school they have plenty of fat that they can cut and still have much better facilities and staff than a state school.

Given the massive increase in private school fees above the rate of inflation even if they cut their costs by 20% they would only be reverting back to their offer in about 2015.

There are a class of private schools where the fees are close to the cost which a state school spends per pupil. These schools are generally of religious character and parents send their kids there for morals reasons rather than a good education, these are likely to be the schools that displace kids back to the state sector and go under. I have no problem with this.

Regarding bursaries and assisted places, these are portrayed as some sort of social good, they are actually a very small proportion of the private school population and thus a vanishingly small number of all school children. The majority of these places go to parents who still pay the majority of fees. These children are also not there purely altruistic reasons either. As I said above the majority of the benefit of private school is from who you go to school with and having academically brilliant or excellent sportsmen as your class mates is very much part of the offer. These places aren't given to Kevin the car thief to get him on the straight and narrow.

The arguments deployed about this are very similar to the arguments employed by non-doms and other very wealthy people who enjoy tax breaks that some how they are doing you a favour by avoiding tax and that if it is removed they will do something that you won't like. In practice the non-doms said the same thing (they'd all leave) after they were limited to 15 years non dom status, in practice a negligible number of the lowest earning non doms left.

[Talksteer]

Otispunkmeyer said:

otolith said:

sugerbear said:

Private education does away with the idea of natural selection of the best / brightest across, it just promotes those that can pay for it.

Whereas the state sector promotes those who can afford to live in a catchment area where the demographics are such that the teachers spend more time on education than crowd control, and where resources are not eaten up dragging the low achievers up to passes.

Realistically, generational privilege is very hard to undermine. Even if you were to succeed in killing private schools, parents with more resources would spend money on tutoring and educational materials and experiences and make sure they live in an area with other people like themselves. If you were to somehow stop them paying to educate their kids, they'd save the money and get them on the housing ladder. And short of taking all kids into state care, you will never remove the advantages of children of intelligent people who have physical resources and social capital, value education, and understand how to get on in life.

Bingo.

Still doesn't mean that you should get a tax break for advantaging your own children.

The solution to education is likely to be to remove the idea of "choice" in the state provision and equalise the socio economic breakdown of schools in given LEA's area. This is essentially what you have got in plenty of semi rural areas where there is only one school option and thus you get a fair spread of abilities in the school. This was the case in my school where we had some people go to Oxbridge and some people go directly to jail after winning the FHM award for stupidest criminal of the year.

If you mostly equalise the input of children the results of the school are pretty much entirely down to the school themselves and this competition is how you drive results.

[768]

Talksteer said:

If you mostly equalise the input of children the results of the school are pretty much entirely down to the school themselves and this competition is how you drive results.

Clearly not how you drive results, or there would be no one seeking to educate their kids outside the non-selective parts of the state sector.

[Mr Penguin]

You may have thought that Rishi Sunak’s surprise election announcement was chaotic, but at least he did it sober. The most disorderly calling of an election happened 40 years ago next month, when the New Zealand premier Robert Muldoon dissolved parliament after a few too many at dinner. It was quickly dubbed the “schnapps election”. Clearly sozzled and laughing uproariously, Muldoon emerged to reporters and told them the news live on television. “It doesn’t give you much time to run up to an election,” one commented. With a canny glint in his eye, Muldoon replied: “It doesn’t give my opponents much time to run up to an election, does it?” He lost.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/rishi...

[Blue62]

bhstewie said:

Poor chap can't get a break

Questioners at Sunak warehouse speech turn out to be Tory councillors

Apparently he’s asked voters in Wales if they’re looking forward to the Football, before it was pointed out that Wales haven’t qualified!

[S600BSB]

Blue62 said:

bhstewie said:

Poor chap can't get a break

Questioners at Sunak warehouse speech turn out to be Tory councillors

Apparently he’s asked voters in Wales if they’re looking forward to the Football, before it was pointed out that Wales haven’t qualified!

Just seen it on the C4 news. Not good..

[Bill]

captain_cynic said:

I don't know, never blame malice for what can easily be explained by stupidity.

I can't imagine Rishi's the kind of bloke who watches the footy religiously (aren't they all Cricket mad up in Yorkshire).

Fair enough about the football, but that's part of a series of cock ups and even by this lots low standards is going some.