LLOY - what to do
Discussion
Seems like they're having a bit of a good run at the moment, what with the stress tests etc. I personally think though that this economy is about to suffer another downturn so, should I sell out of Lloyds? I'm still well under water with these, and after having bought into rights issue after rights issue its by far the largest share in my portfolio.
I do want to stay invested with them, but to move it into my ISA so was thinking (ideally) to sell now as I think they're a bit peaky and then WHEN they drop back buy them back in my ISA. Or sell half? Help!
I do want to stay invested with them, but to move it into my ISA so was thinking (ideally) to sell now as I think they're a bit peaky and then WHEN they drop back buy them back in my ISA. Or sell half? Help!
At the tend of the day they aren't going anywhere and it's always a shame to sell at a loss.
I put quite a bit in to RBS and they have just broken a few pence over what I paid for them. Luckily that few pence makes a huge difference as it will on Lloyds shares.
Like you though I'm pretty sure the banks will slip back again, especially LLOY and RBS, but they will also rebound.
Depends if you want the money now but it doesn't seem like it.
I say stick with them.
I put quite a bit in to RBS and they have just broken a few pence over what I paid for them. Luckily that few pence makes a huge difference as it will on Lloyds shares.
Like you though I'm pretty sure the banks will slip back again, especially LLOY and RBS, but they will also rebound.
Depends if you want the money now but it doesn't seem like it.
I say stick with them.
14-7 said:
At the tend of the day they aren't going anywhere and it's always a shame to sell at a loss.
Wrong way to look at it. Sometimes taking the loss is what keeps you solvent.I'd say if they are the largest share in your portfolio and you didn't intend them to be the sell out some. If they've just bounced then they are better than where they were a few weeks/months ago. If they go up more then you still have a lot which will make you money and if they go down you have go out of some.
Remember not everything can be a winner.
What price do you need LLOY need to be to break even?
I'm in on RBS at 58p, quite literally the peak before the dropped off down to 40ish. I could sell with roughly 20% loss but instead choosing to hang in.
Sadly i have one share worth 10% of book cost in my portfolio, i might as well sell them and punt on some penny oil/miners.
I'm in on RBS at 58p, quite literally the peak before the dropped off down to 40ish. I could sell with roughly 20% loss but instead choosing to hang in.
Sadly i have one share worth 10% of book cost in my portfolio, i might as well sell them and punt on some penny oil/miners.
fesuvious said:
It all depends on what you believe may happen.
Will 68bn odd shares stay in issue?
Will there be consolidation?
Would Lloyds buy back the Gov's shares and absorb them?
Will they make 5, 10, 15bn per year?
What might 2012's divi be?
These are just some of the Q's you'll need to answer if you are a potential long term holder, or indeed if you are thinking about selling up.
Short term; Is this a rise into results, and then will they drop back to 68?
Might Lloyds shock and score £2bn profit?
Even so, might they peak at 80p and even then drop back to 68?
Answer these and be correct and you'll be laughing !!!
I have 120,000 shares, so I am keenly watching!!!!
On a side note, I just read your blog today Matt. Very true 'presumed entitlement'. When I was a kid I thought you worked, saved a deposit, moved out, paid for your house on a mortgage and after 25 years you owned it. Now it isn't a case of what does the house cost, it's "how much is that a month to cover the interest" and no-one seems to worry about borrowing more than they could ever pay back.Will 68bn odd shares stay in issue?
Will there be consolidation?
Would Lloyds buy back the Gov's shares and absorb them?
Will they make 5, 10, 15bn per year?
What might 2012's divi be?
These are just some of the Q's you'll need to answer if you are a potential long term holder, or indeed if you are thinking about selling up.
Short term; Is this a rise into results, and then will they drop back to 68?
Might Lloyds shock and score £2bn profit?
Even so, might they peak at 80p and even then drop back to 68?
Answer these and be correct and you'll be laughing !!!
I have 120,000 shares, so I am keenly watching!!!!
My view - screw lending to anyone who can't pay it back, that was what created this problem. Lend only to those who can afford it, jack up rates to get houses back to a sensible level and make people realise you can't live on the 'never never' forever!
R11ysf said:
14-7 said:
At the tend of the day they aren't going anywhere and it's always a shame to sell at a loss.
Wrong way to look at it. Sometimes taking the loss is what keeps you solvent.I'd say if they are the largest share in your portfolio and you didn't intend them to be the sell out some. If they've just bounced then they are better than where they were a few weeks/months ago. If they go up more then you still have a lot which will make you money and if they go down you have go out of some.
Remember not everything can be a winner.
fesuvious said:
It all depends on what you believe may happen.
Will 68bn odd shares stay in issue?
Will there be consolidation?
Would Lloyds buy back the Gov's shares and absorb them?
Will they make 5, 10, 15bn per year?
What might 2012's divi be?
These are just some of the Q's you'll need to answer if you are a potential long term holder, or indeed if you are thinking about selling up.
Short term; Is this a rise into results, and then will they drop back to 68?
Might Lloyds shock and score £2bn profit?
Even so, might they peak at 80p and even then drop back to 68?
Answer these and be correct and you'll be laughing !!!
I have 120,000 shares, so I am keenly watching!!!!
I need 104p to break even. I think LLOY has the right attitude to things, ok HBOS was a bit of a mistake but its done and I think they can only build on this. Long-term I'm staying a shareholder, but just thought i'd adjust the way i'm invested with them, plus try and make a bit on the ups and downs (I know its risky). Will 68bn odd shares stay in issue?
Will there be consolidation?
Would Lloyds buy back the Gov's shares and absorb them?
Will they make 5, 10, 15bn per year?
What might 2012's divi be?
These are just some of the Q's you'll need to answer if you are a potential long term holder, or indeed if you are thinking about selling up.
Short term; Is this a rise into results, and then will they drop back to 68?
Might Lloyds shock and score £2bn profit?
Even so, might they peak at 80p and even then drop back to 68?
Answer these and be correct and you'll be laughing !!!
I have 120,000 shares, so I am keenly watching!!!!
Fes your obviously way more committed than I am, what are YOU doing?
fesuvious said:
It all depends on what you believe may happen.
Will 68bn odd shares stay in issue?
Will there be consolidation?
Would Lloyds buy back the Gov's shares and absorb them?
Will they make 5, 10, 15bn per year?
What might 2012's divi be?
These are just some of the Q's you'll need to answer if you are a potential long term holder, or indeed if you are thinking about selling up.
Short term; Is this a rise into results, and then will they drop back to 68?
Might Lloyds shock and score £2bn profit?
Even so, might they peak at 80p and even then drop back to 68?
Answer these and be correct and you'll be laughing !!!
I have 120,000 shares, so I am keenly watching!!!!
Will 68bn odd shares stay in issue?
Will there be consolidation?
Would Lloyds buy back the Gov's shares and absorb them?
Will they make 5, 10, 15bn per year?
What might 2012's divi be?
These are just some of the Q's you'll need to answer if you are a potential long term holder, or indeed if you are thinking about selling up.
Short term; Is this a rise into results, and then will they drop back to 68?
Might Lloyds shock and score £2bn profit?
Even so, might they peak at 80p and even then drop back to 68?
Answer these and be correct and you'll be laughing !!!
I have 120,000 shares, so I am keenly watching!!!!
Have you thought about writing deep out of the money call options on some of this lot to generate some income whilst you wait for the price to rise and dividends to get reinstated?
fesuvious said:
Timmy - you just spoke Japanese to me!
I am not a stock market expert. Please, please explain.
The reason I have invested heavily* in Lloyds is simple;
Before the recession they were a seriously solid bank. Not involved in anything fancy. Just 'solid'. No daft lending criteria, they just had a system that was safe and made money.
Errmm, whats changed? Answer (even with HBOS) NOTHING.
When the Northern Rock crisis hit I heard something on TV that immediately pricked my ears in relation to Lloyds, up till that point I just daytraded for a bit of fun with a rolling float of @£15k.
Lloyds : Traditional Banking, safe as houses.
ETA - selling options is where you sell the right to someone to buy the share off you at a price at a certain time - let's say £1.20. They may pay you 3p a share for that right. If the share price never reaches £1.20 by that time you keep the 3p as an extra profit. If it does reach £1.20 you give them the shares. Obviously if the price is below £1.20 by expiry you have made money, but if it goes above £1.23 (£1.20 + your 3p payment)then you lose out on extra profit.I am not a stock market expert. Please, please explain.
The reason I have invested heavily* in Lloyds is simple;
Before the recession they were a seriously solid bank. Not involved in anything fancy. Just 'solid'. No daft lending criteria, they just had a system that was safe and made money.
Errmm, whats changed? Answer (even with HBOS) NOTHING.
When the Northern Rock crisis hit I heard something on TV that immediately pricked my ears in relation to Lloyds, up till that point I just daytraded for a bit of fun with a rolling float of @£15k.
Lloyds : Traditional Banking, safe as houses.
The funny thing about shares is everyone has an opinion. You've invested heavily in something that by your own admission you aren't an expert in. However, those people who are experts and buy and sell millions of shares based on valuing their books and the business and sector they are in believe something has changed. One of you is right.
I had friends telling me to buy Northern Rock saying things like "average 12 month price £6.50, we can get it for £3" Or "12 month high £12.50".
I personally think LLoyds will be a good share in the long run but don't kid yourself nothing has changed. They bought HBOS disastrously, paid too much and encountered huge losses. They whole sector they are in took a bashing and as sovereign debt crisis develop don't be surprised if governments start taxing the banks to get it back.
Edited by R11ysf on Wednesday 4th August 10:58
R11ysf said:
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ETA - selling options is where you sell the right to someone to buy the share off you at a price at a certain time - let's say £1.20. They may pay you 3p a share for that right. If the share price never reaches £1.20 by that time you keep the 3p as an extra profit. If it does reach £1.20 you give them the shares. Obviously if the price is below £1.20 by expiry you have made money, but if it goes above £1.23 (£1.20 + your 3p payment)then you lose out on extra profit.
ETA - selling options is where you sell the right to someone to buy the share off you at a price at a certain time - let's say £1.20. They may pay you 3p a share for that right. If the share price never reaches £1.20 by that time you keep the 3p as an extra profit. If it does reach £1.20 you give them the shares. Obviously if the price is below £1.20 by expiry you have made money, but if it goes above £1.23 (£1.20 + your 3p payment)then you lose out on extra profit.
in a nutshell. A common option expiry is 3 months, so you could write 4 options a year, each time receiving a nice preimum. The worst that can happen is that you get knocked out of your position, but then you might only decide to sell options equal to the value of part of your holding anyway. This is called writing covered call options, it is not risky, writing 'naked' call options where you don't own the underlying share is obviously more risky because you don't own the underlying shares and will haev to find someone willing to sell if the option does get excercised.
Timmy35 said:
fesuvious said:
To be honest;
I am thinking about plonking £50k in the general direction of Taylor Wimpey...........
at maybe low 29's late 28's.
Even at 425p BP could be worth a punt. The news seems to be better and better from that direction.I am thinking about plonking £50k in the general direction of Taylor Wimpey...........
at maybe low 29's late 28's.
got some at 390, tempted to get some more.It still annoys me that Lloyds was doing just fine surviving the credit crunch until it was forced to buy HBOS, whilst at the same time the trouble HBOS was in was understated by our beloved former government
I tend to agree with fesuvious in that Lloyds is a decent company long term. By virtue of the government's meddling they now have a bad reputation (because they were "bailed out" - if you can call it that - it is now conventional wisdom that they're an irresponsible bank), but the reputation is undeserved. They had conservative lending criteria and weren't heavily into toxic assets. The government have a lot to answer to in that regard, they really did a number on Lloyds what with the HBOS saga and the insurance racket (pay to join, or pay to stay out - eh?). But overall it should be no surprise that profits are good.
One thing that I wonder if it could slow the resurgence a little is the effects of a break up. The silver lining to taking on HBOS was the branches, but the government have gone back on their word with that too and a break up is definitely going ahead last time I checked. It seems they plan to sell off sensible things (like branches in Scotland, where nobody has any money
) but it all counts. Plus, you never know what the government is going to do next, there's still a lot of scapegoating going on and who knows what a retail/investment separation could do?
One thing that I wonder if it could slow the resurgence a little is the effects of a break up. The silver lining to taking on HBOS was the branches, but the government have gone back on their word with that too and a break up is definitely going ahead last time I checked. It seems they plan to sell off sensible things (like branches in Scotland, where nobody has any money
) but it all counts. Plus, you never know what the government is going to do next, there's still a lot of scapegoating going on and who knows what a retail/investment separation could do?Well thought I was being canny selling out at 74p and 'saving' myself a drop of £2k worth...in the hope that when I buy back at a lower price it brings my average down and so I can break even sooner! Well I put half back in, so I guess i'll wait to buy back the rest and see where the SP goes first.
General economic news doesn't look good though does it...which is a and a 
General economic news doesn't look good though does it...which is a
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