When/Will house prices cool down?

[Phooey]

Still selling around here too but changes, if any, don't happen overnight. Borrowing is (for now) still historically cheap, so maybe a bit of a rush to lock-in before base rate goes to ? 4%. They keep telling us housing supply is tight so maybe that is partly responsible for house prices staying firm. If i had to give my best guess is the market will slow 2nd-3rd qtr next year, and with any slowing we will lose the top layer of 'silliness', 'FOMO', etc built into prices - whether that be 5, 10 or 15% who knows.

I think the biggest negative change to come could be home-owners not wanting to give up their current low-rate mortgage deals to go into a higher-rate deal on top of the increase in borrowing (upscaling)

And also a recession once confirmed might make the non-essential buyers hibernate for a year or three

[Edible Roadkill]

Previous 2 recessions saw avg prices dropping 16% 2007-8 recession and 20% in the 90’s recession.

Each time it took around 7yrs to see values recover.

Likely take some time for people to react to tough times. Into next year.

[NortonES2]

Though price drops or not did vary by location in both of those time periods.

[Nitro182]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62758...

House prices will never drop while this corruption goes on. Houses are now business assets and this is just one example of how one "business" can own a considerable portfolio of property in one small area.

[okgo]

3% isn’t exactly unfair and sounds entirely reasonable.

[Nitro182]

okgo said:

3% isn’t exactly unfair and sounds entirely reasonable.

The problem is that one company owned by a Lord who is an ex MP owns over 300 properties in Hackney. Now how is it ok for a company to own a rather large estate in one town?

[troika]

lizardbrain said:

Still red hot in Edinburgh. Bid on a 500k flat today at closing and there were five ahead of me

Let them get on with it IMHO.

[Douglas Quaid]

Nitro182 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62758...

House prices will never drop while this corruption goes on. Houses are now business assets and this is just one example of how one "business" can own a considerable portfolio of property in one small area.

Headline says £1000 but that isn’t referenced anywhere in the article. What a load of rubbish.

[Fusion777]

Some asking prices have been dropping in the last few months (North Notts). Wouldn't say there's been a seismic change yet though.

[Sheepshanks]

Douglas Quaid said:

Headline says £1000 but that isn’t referenced anywhere in the article. What a load of rubbish.

iNews, which that report seems to be pretty well a copy of, says £950/yr. So implies a rent of around £2500/mth, which looks about right.

[Chamon_Lee]

I feel sorry for the next generation of this is the state of the property market. I hope it crumbles to st even I get burned somewhat.

A more Affluent area 5 miles away from me has a Robertson homes development. 600k for a large size 5 bedroom 1.5 years ago. Now been advertised for 1m. For 600k it was a fair price. For 800k (which they suggested to me 8 months ago was silly anyway but to then advertise it for 1m is plain mental. Anyone who buys it needs their head wobbled

[theboss]

I think values will fall substantially in my area (Shropshire). It seems now like its stalling, every other RM listing has been recently reduced and as somebody who only just bought into the madness earlier this year my own budget on the same deposit and monthly would raise nearly 20% less to buy with. That's just based on interest rates and not considering rising living costs impacting affordability. I don't see how prices can't drop a similar percentage just in nominal terms at this rate.

[anonymous-user]

Chamon_Lee said:

I feel sorry for the next generation of this is the state of the property market. I hope it crumbles to st even I get burned somewhat.

A more Affluent area 5 miles away from me has a Robertson homes development. 600k for a large size 5 bedroom 1.5 years ago. Now been advertised for 1m. For 600k it was a fair price. For 800k (which they suggested to me 8 months ago was silly anyway but to then advertise it for 1m is plain mental. Anyone who buys it needs their head wobbled

The thing is that a decline in house prices doesn’t really affect the normal homeowner, unless they’re cashing out or moving to a less desirable area. I’d happily take a big hit on the value of my property if house prices were to return to a sensible level.

[Rob_125]

Newarch said:

Chamon_Lee said:

I feel sorry for the next generation of this is the state of the property market. I hope it crumbles to st even I get burned somewhat.

A more Affluent area 5 miles away from me has a Robertson homes development. 600k for a large size 5 bedroom 1.5 years ago. Now been advertised for 1m. For 600k it was a fair price. For 800k (which they suggested to me 8 months ago was silly anyway but to then advertise it for 1m is plain mental. Anyone who buys it needs their head wobbled

The thing is that a decline in house prices doesn’t really affect the normal homeowner, unless they’re cashing out or moving to a less desirable area. I’d happily take a big hit on the value of my property if house prices were to return to a sensible level.

Surely decline in house prices affect the mortgaged home owner. If you took out a 5% deposit 2 year mortgage on your 200k home. It could be worth £160k come renewal, with £180k outstanding. Home owner will be then either stuck on the svr or have to find £20k.

Those with more equity it won't affect to much, but those who are starting out/stretched themselves may be unstuck.

[okgo]

20% drop is massive. 5% deposit small. Quite unlikely scenarios I’d have thought.

[lizardbrain]

House I offered on l yesterday had around 20 offers!

At higher end it’s nothing to do with wages afaict. I think it’s partly weakness of stock market are going all in on safety of property.

Or Is it something to do with currency? An American investor can now buy Uk property at quite a discount can 2 years ago.

[anonymous-user]

Rob_125 said:

Surely decline in house prices affect the mortgaged home owner. If you took out a 5% deposit 2 year mortgage on your 200k home. It could be worth £160k come renewal, with £180k outstanding. Home owner will be then either stuck on the svr or have to find £20k.

Those with more equity it won't affect to much, but those who are starting out/stretched themselves may be unstuck.

Yes but most people in the long term will find that their property is worth more than they paid for it. Even if it isn’t they aren’t really worse off if they sell up and buy another place in a depressed market.

[98elise]

Newarch said:

Rob_125 said:

Surely decline in house prices affect the mortgaged home owner. If you took out a 5% deposit 2 year mortgage on your 200k home. It could be worth £160k come renewal, with £180k outstanding. Home owner will be then either stuck on the svr or have to find £20k.

Those with more equity it won't affect to much, but those who are starting out/stretched themselves may be unstuck.

Yes but most people in the long term will find that their property is worth more than they paid for it. Even if it isn’t they aren’t really worse off if they sell up and buy another place in a depressed market.

How do you sell and buy another property if you're in negative equity? What happens when the mortgage company want you to adjust the Loan to Value and write them a big fat cheque?

It happened before and lots of people got burned.

[Chamon_Lee]

Newarch said:

Rob_125 said:

Surely decline in house prices affect the mortgaged home owner. If you took out a 5% deposit 2 year mortgage on your 200k home. It could be worth £160k come renewal, with £180k outstanding. Home owner will be then either stuck on the svr or have to find £20k.

Those with more equity it won't affect to much, but those who are starting out/stretched themselves may be unstuck.

Yes but most people in the long term will find that their property is worth more than they paid for it. Even if it isn’t they aren’t really worse off if they sell up and buy another place in a depressed market.

This is a point many people overlook. They write it off as ah well if it drops down by 20% it is what it is. I have to say I find that mindset very uncomfortable, for 99% of the population saving up 100k deposit is bloody hard work and to then say ah well its been wiped off its ok is crazy.

Another issue that is overlooked is if the housing market does drop approx 20% you can get your back side there is a whole load of pain going on in every other part part of your life. That pain could be in terms of personal liquidity, business issue, redundancies, personal problems with marriages breaking up etc

Too many people here isolate housing price reduction from the rest of the parts of our life.

[ChocolateFrog]

turboman786 said:

Theres probably a thread running regarding this topic

I am very actively house hunting and houses are astonishingly overpriced compared to say a year ago.....Im talking 20% over what they were sensibly being marketed for

Now I am loathe to pay over the odds BUT am resigning myself to the fact that this is what people are willing to pay and therefore I must follow suit

Does anyone have any insight /analysis on whether/when this housing boom will stop well...booming !!

It's more like 30-50% over near me, although some of that is because prices still hadn't quite recovered to 2007 levels pre-pamdemic.

Stuff is way overpriced at the moment though.

I'm sitting tight until next year or 2024. Worst case is my current house continues to increase in value.