"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

[Scootersp]

remedy said:

I see. So is it an indicator of the health of the economy? When things are rough, people turn to gold as security for their wealth and 'remove' it from the economy?

Gold gives no set return, so when the interest rates are higher the fact your cash will grow makes cash (premium bonds, 'high' interest accounts and short medium term 1-2 year bonds) makes that potentially more attractive, especially if the Gold price is flat.

However, for a long time the interest rates have been poor and lower than inflation, so it can appear you are getting an increase in your cash but it's inflating faster, hence why currency devalues. Think what the first one pound coin 1983 would have taken to earn, what it would buy then compared to those two things today. You could have had enough in 1983 to buy a basic house that if left under matress would now buy a new Dacia. Even if you put it in a bland interest bearing account the amount you had might buy you a lesser house, it wouldn't be a better one, your cash is generally eroded in vanilla saving products, you have needed to go to the stock market funds or property to 'grow' your wealth, but these can experience large drops at times, but overall have outperformed significanty.

Gold largely over the same sort of timeframe has preserved wealth better than cash or cash plus vanilla interest so you could still buy the same house.

That in essence is the choice.

There is also protection against a sharp currency devaluation, Gold is universally accepted and globally priced in dollars and so if there is the failing of a local currency then it will help to protect you from that. Anyone in Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Egypt etc etc if they could go back would rather have had their wealth in Gold over their local currency. So there is a black swan fear element to it too, we, you and I, aren't in control of our currency's value, we have all our non property wealth in electronic numbers, very little in any sort of physical form, that's the way the modern world is, and may always be, but there could also be a reversion to more antiquated times. Governments and central banks would otherwise just sell all their Gold and do something useful with it, currently it seems they beleive is makes more sense to keep it and they can print the currency.

Edited by Scootersp on Friday 16th June 10:13

[ATM]

Anyone here keeping an eye on Silver Gold ratio?

[dom9]

ATM said:

Anyone here keeping an eye on Silver Gold ratio?

No... interested to see it plotted for the last decade or two. Is there a readily available link? [I'd do it myself but about to run out - sorry]

[Mr Whippy]

Silver is lagging a bit…

https://www.gold.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/silver/25y...


Still tempted to move mine on but get this feeling fireworks will be hitting over the next 12 months and PM values will begin to reflect the unfolding reality in good form.

[ATM]

Mr Whippy said:

Silver is lagging a bit…

https://www.gold.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/silver/25y...


Still tempted to move mine on but get this feeling fireworks will be hitting over the next 12 months and PM values will begin to reflect the unfolding reality in good form.

I'm a buyer

Don't sell here

[ATM]

dom9 said:

No... interested to see it plotted for the last decade or two. Is there a readily available link? [I'd do it myself but about to run out - sorry]

Found this 10 year ... below

If you go back further it got as low as 10 so $190 per oz for silver based on today's gold price

Some news about SLV shares becoming illiquid which could mean shorts will have problems

[dom9]

ATM said:

Found this 10 year ... below

If you go back further it got as low as 10 so $190 per oz for silver based on today's gold price

Some news about SLV shares becoming illiquid which could mean shorts will have problems

Thank you! By eyeball, it does look like we're 'about average' now, over the 10yr period shown though.

Haven't people been saying "SLV shares becoming illiquid which could mean shorts will have problems" for ages now?

Not trying to pour water on it... I am a bit of a gold bug (well, exposure through a mine), as previously discussed here so pro-PM!

[ATM]

dom9 said:

ATM said:

Thank you! By eyeball, it does look like we're 'about average' now, over the 10yr period shown though.

OK sticking to the gold silver ratio only. You could argue it was trending up and that it put in a blow off top. So in the first 7ish years of that chart it went up. Since then it has been coming down. It came down big and since it has been drifting up slightly but basically going sideways. Just eye balling the chart it looks to me like it will go down. That feels more likely than it going up again in any meaningful way. That is obviously a guess.

[r3g]

ATM said:

Found this 10 year ... below

If you go back further it got as low as 10 so $190 per oz for silver based on today's gold price

Some news about SLV shares becoming illiquid which could mean shorts will have problems

So yet again, all the PM bugs look silly for the n-th time. A year or 2 ago it was all "GSR is at ATH !!!!!!!!111". That means silver is about to break out and go to $100 !!1 Back-up the truck y'all !

And gold is still the same price it's always been once you remove the noise.

"Safe" wealth preservation, maybe gold? Maybe, but looking doubtful as the years progress with inflation off the end of the dial and gold staying the same fiat price.
"Safe" investment, maybe gold? No.

[RSTurboPaul]

r3g said:

ATM said:

Found this 10 year ... below

If you go back further it got as low as 10 so $190 per oz for silver based on today's gold price

Some news about SLV shares becoming illiquid which could mean shorts will have problems

So yet again, all the PM bugs look silly for the n-th time. A year or 2 ago it was all "GSR is at ATH !!!!!!!!111". That means silver is about to break out and go to $100 !!1 Back-up the truck y'all !

And gold is still the same price it's always been once you remove the noise.

"Safe" wealth preservation, maybe gold? Maybe, but looking doubtful as the years progress with inflation off the end of the dial and gold staying the same fiat price.
"Safe" investment, maybe gold? No.

Do you have a view on the reasons for the price remaining relatively static at this point in time?

[r3g]

RSTurboPaul said:

Do you have a view on the reasons for the price remaining relatively static at this point in time?

You already know the answer to this and have posted the reason yourself many many times.

Comex.

[RSTurboPaul]

r3g said:

RSTurboPaul said:

Do you have a view on the reasons for the price remaining relatively static at this point in time?

You already know the answer to this and have posted the reason yourself many many times.

Comex.

Agreed. lol


I guess I am mostly wondering what effect BRICS will have - they seem to be progressing things so will we see a move away from a global price dictated by a handful of 'authorised participants' at the Comex?

Interesting times.

[ATM]

RSTurboPaul said:

r3g said:

RSTurboPaul said:

Do you have a view on the reasons for the price remaining relatively static at this point in time?

You already know the answer to this and have posted the reason yourself many many times.

Comex.

Agreed. lol


I guess I am mostly wondering what effect BRICS will have - they seem to be progressing things so will we see a move away from a global price dictated by a handful of 'authorised participants' at the Comex?

Interesting times.

Disagree

To blame price movements on one thing would be over simplification


Sentiment

If Sentiment changes then this will affect price

Comex can't beat Sentiment

[ATM]

Someone elsewhere on PH recommended I watch

inside job on netflix

I think I might have seen it because I remember some of the clips but I am not sure - maybe they have been recycled from elsewhere

I just watched it again

This is no longer available on netflix but there is a copy available here -

[jshell]

With world events and the failing, flailing Western economies, I'm buying physical gold. The Shanghai gold exchange price/oz for gold was $112 MORE than the Comex last week. Every central bank is accumulating. If it was worthless or a bad bet, why would they?

[RSTurboPaul]

jshell said:

With world events and the failing, flailing Western economies, I'm buying physical gold. The Shanghai gold exchange price/oz for gold was $112 MORE than the Comex last week. Every central bank is accumulating. If it was worthless or a bad bet, why would they?

Those central bank, tin foil hat conspiracy theorists...

And, of course, don't forget that (as per Schectman) gold has been moved up to now be classified a Tier 1 asset.

https://blog.cornerstoneassetmetals.com/gold-to-be...

All just a coincidence, I'm sure

[jshell]

RSTurboPaul said:

jshell said:

With world events and the failing, flailing Western economies, I'm buying physical gold. The Shanghai gold exchange price/oz for gold was $112 MORE than the Comex last week. Every central bank is accumulating. If it was worthless or a bad bet, why would they?

Those central bank, tin foil hat conspiracy theorists...

And, of course, don't forget that (as per Schectman) gold has been moved up to now be classified a Tier 1 asset.

https://blog.cornerstoneassetmetals.com/gold-to-be...

All just a coincidence, I'm sure

I'm sure!

[ATM]

So we now have a 2nd war starting. Surely thats obvious to everyone. And we still have the possibility of China getting involved in something with Taiwan. These would be good reasons for the countries here to start printing to pay for their involvement in these wars. So that's 2 reasons for Gold to do well.

[tescorank]

Certainly looking on unstable times, now’s the time to buy.

[clio007]

Looking at the price. The time to buy was the day before the Hamas attack