What’s your big gamble? (Volume 2)
Discussion
MikeStroud said:
AMGO
My gains here are fast evaporating on a daily basis.
As I understand it the AGM and vote is set for 29th Sept. I don't think JB will win the vote. Anyone disagree?
If he wins I think the sp will rise, if he doesn't it will drop a bit. Anyone disagree?
I'm wondering whether to get out now whilst I at least have some gain left.
The thing I love about Amigo is that they’re able to make each preceding week look sensible - I’m starting to think that it won’t be long until JB is filmed shouting at passing buses, or telling people that he’s Elvis re-incarnated. My gains here are fast evaporating on a daily basis.
As I understand it the AGM and vote is set for 29th Sept. I don't think JB will win the vote. Anyone disagree?
If he wins I think the sp will rise, if he doesn't it will drop a bit. Anyone disagree?
I'm wondering whether to get out now whilst I at least have some gain left.
I have no idea whether a mad man would be better running the company, or an (allegedly) incompetent board.
Saying that, JB has managed to regularly spike the shareprice whilst he attacks the board and steadily sells down his shares - we continue to buy those shares... maybe it’s us that are mad.. sensible option would be to sell... however, this thread wouldn’t condone such behaviour. I’m staying in and currently up just over 20%, was a lot more.. although had also been a lot less...
Decent day today and up 2.9% overall. Increased my holding in SKINS and RBG, probably holding far too much of both now considering the risk profile.
PDL was my biggest gainer at 28% up, although still in the red on it - had broken even when it was up more intra-day. ALGW was my 2nd biggest winner of the day, ended up over 16% - was up over 24% at one point. They’re my 4th biggest holding so a decent result £ wise.
Biggest faller was Bidstack - down 8%, they move around a lot.
vulture1 said:
What do we think about the rest of the week. We have seen recently big rises on Monday only to fall by the end of the week and be overall down week to week? Friday finish needs to but up or at least level with todays finish.
FTSE futures looking very strong - but you’d be as well tossing a coin... Covid Infection rates on the up... more local lockdowns... more travel restrictions.. Less virus related deaths... life seems to be returning to more normality... who knows.. everything is a contradiction and nothing seems to correlate too much with market performance.
The only thing that I believe we can say with any kind of conviction is that most people on the LSE boards are tossers/crazy.
rich12 said:
500 Miles said:
To you... £300 a bean, minimum quantity 100 beans..
‘old out yer hand!
100? I don't get out of bed for less than 100k of something. ‘old out yer hand!
Sold boo, bought more skin and Syme today. 95% of my money is now in these 2. Diversification is overrated.
I can’t believe you’ve sold out of a sure fire thing... hopefully you didn’t listen to your conscience..
Syme looks interesting - the CEO certainly seems to have confidence in the company.
What justifies its valuation? What’s the opportunity?
I’ve scanned the first 20 pages of the annual report and it reads like a litany of disasters - obviously haven’t got to the good stuff and thought I would be lazy and just ask
petemurphy said:
big SNG RNS out
interesting to see how people react. its good in that good COPD results and they back up covid data but its not the buy out one many would have hoped for so could go either way. should be positive I would think
Looking good so far - as is ALGW again. interesting to see how people react. its good in that good COPD results and they back up covid data but its not the buy out one many would have hoped for so could go either way. should be positive I would think
Rest of my stocks are either just under or just over - currently up a massive 0.01%... I have a feeling that I’ll look back on that gain with fondness in a few hours
500 Miles said:
Looking good so far - as is ALGW again.
Rest of my stocks are either just under or just over - currently up a massive 0.01%... I have a feeling that I’ll look back on that gain with fondness in a few hours
Well... I’m definitely looking back at a 0.01% gain with fondness! Rest of my stocks are either just under or just over - currently up a massive 0.01%... I have a feeling that I’ll look back on that gain with fondness in a few hours
Down just under 2%, actually surprised it’s not more with some of the large drops.
Adam B said:
Apparently the MMs have f
ked us all again today.
Seriously what are all these people on LSE on about? Do they think IB, HL,212 prop trade in the market? The spread is the spread if a buyer and seller set limits that are far apart? What manipulation do they think happens?
Did someone say M&m’s fked us all again today.Seriously what are all these people on LSE on about? Do they think IB, HL,212 prop trade in the market? The spread is the spread if a buyer and seller set limits that are far apart? What manipulation do they think happens?
ked us?
rich12 said:
MikeStroud said:
I don't know the answer to this question but "believe" it is something like this:
1 - An MM will hold a lot of shares in a number of companies it wants to "manipulate". Consider shares in company X only.
2 - MM will have access to Level 2 data (that few of us here do), this shows who is trying to sell and buy what and at what price in real time.
3 - Imagine Mike tells his broker to buy Qty 1000 Share X. The current sp is £1.00.
4 - Simultaneously Adam tells his broker to sell his Qty 500 Share X.
5 - Assume a very simple situation where there is no other sellers then Mike's order can't be fulfilled.
6 - MM steps in and sells Qty 500 Share X BUT specifies he will only accept £0.99.
7 - Mike pays £995. Adam part fills the order and gets £500. MM part fills the order and gets £495.
8 - So MM has lost £5 by helping out right? And sp is now £0.99.
9 - As further sellers come along MM can now buy at the reduced sp and build up a stock ready to sell when sp reverts to higher sp. Obviously they need to calculate they can recover their loss.
10 - If stop losses get hit along the way all the better.
I think it helps with illiquid stock at times when the buyers exceed the sellers (which normally would result in share price rise) and super fast software that can do these calculations quickly using live level 2 data etc and it needs sellers/buyers who are using market orders rather than limit orders.
That said I really don't know but assume it is something like above but may be nothing like that at all, need someone with intelligence to answer that question!
Good answer but... What if there are no sell orders even close to the buy order?1 - An MM will hold a lot of shares in a number of companies it wants to "manipulate". Consider shares in company X only.
2 - MM will have access to Level 2 data (that few of us here do), this shows who is trying to sell and buy what and at what price in real time.
3 - Imagine Mike tells his broker to buy Qty 1000 Share X. The current sp is £1.00.
4 - Simultaneously Adam tells his broker to sell his Qty 500 Share X.
5 - Assume a very simple situation where there is no other sellers then Mike's order can't be fulfilled.
6 - MM steps in and sells Qty 500 Share X BUT specifies he will only accept £0.99.
7 - Mike pays £995. Adam part fills the order and gets £500. MM part fills the order and gets £495.
8 - So MM has lost £5 by helping out right? And sp is now £0.99.
9 - As further sellers come along MM can now buy at the reduced sp and build up a stock ready to sell when sp reverts to higher sp. Obviously they need to calculate they can recover their loss.
10 - If stop losses get hit along the way all the better.
I think it helps with illiquid stock at times when the buyers exceed the sellers (which normally would result in share price rise) and super fast software that can do these calculations quickly using live level 2 data etc and it needs sellers/buyers who are using market orders rather than limit orders.
That said I really don't know but assume it is something like above but may be nothing like that at all, need someone with intelligence to answer that question!
Someone wants to buy 22m shares in one hit, how do they manipulate the price to go down to match the order for such high volumes?
I know figures are all relative but I've never seen a single answer as to how a huge order can be filled at a lower SP without selling an even bigger number to physically make it drop.
Stocks are priced in two different ways, quote driven and order driven. An order driven stock has its price determined by an aggregation of the open orders on its order book - essentially functioning as a true market.
A quote driven stock has its price determined by market makers, this usually happens with smaller stocks that are less liquid. Market makers are there to provide a functional market place for stocks - eg they make the market.
I’ve got a couple of stocks that are quote driven (IDP is one) - in practice the shareprice will sit still a level which is decided by the market maker(s). If you are trying to buy stock and are having trouble, you can call your broker and ask them to increase the shareprice seen on screen - if the sp keeps increasing then it will generate sellers which you can then buy from.
Sometimes you’ll see the sp increase and decrease throughout the day without any trades, you often also see a sp that has been trading up or down all day reset to level at the bell.
I have an order driven stock which I occasionally buy or sell large numbers of - I could chunk up the transactions into smaller sizes but it’s preferable to take to your broker and say that you want to sell x many at y price or above - they will them contact various other brokers and do a deal. Sometimes that’s above the price on screen and sometimes it’s below.
If you buy enough shares you can request to buy x million shares at a price which is below market - sometimes a cheeky offer is accepted. Usually when someone wants to offload and knows that if they sell at volume they’ll decrease the sp.
I probably haven’t explained that very well - and I’m definitely not an expert - but in my mind that’s how it works.
g4ry13 said:
Luke. said:
g4ry13 said:
Not sure if i'm looking forward to seeing Cineworld in the morning.
Is the cinema considered a public gathering or does that become exempt due to social distancing?
It's great news for Cine. If anything it directs social gatherings towards the cinema. Just book in blocks of six if need be. Is the cinema considered a public gathering or does that become exempt due to social distancing?
Luke. said:
g4ry13 said:
Luke. said:
g4ry13 said:
Not sure if i'm looking forward to seeing Cineworld in the morning.
Is the cinema considered a public gathering or does that become exempt due to social distancing?
It's great news for Cine. If anything it directs social gatherings towards the cinema. Just book in blocks of six if need be. Is the cinema considered a public gathering or does that become exempt due to social distancing?
Adam B said:
yes another 1.5% down today
some I dont mind so much as they are LT holds - MNZS and NRR
some I do - RBG and CINE
worst loss was SNG today
AXA and the bandits did well
I’m with you on RBG and Cine, seem to have a personal connection to these - probably love of Vodka and films... some I dont mind so much as they are LT holds - MNZS and NRR
some I do - RBG and CINE
worst loss was SNG today
AXA and the bandits did well
I’m assuming Legal and General (RBG 2nd biggest shareholder, or at least was) sold down their holding because they hadn’t done as much research as us Adam... I’ve got a man going into Revs everyday to eat ribs and check out numbers of punters, all looking good. L&G don’t have that insight..
Luke. said:
500 Miles said:
I’ve got a man going into Revs everyday to eat ribs and check out numbers of punters, all looking good...
Is that man you?Edited to add, I feel a whoosh parrot flying in.
It’s actually my personal trainer, he appears to have become addicted to Revs
speedyguy said:
Dave J said:
Proper gamble with a quick in and out in an hour on Tullow today for 10% gain
Nice one 
I slid my last spare K this month into Rockfire after their collapse earlier this week or I would have popped into Tullow.
What's people's general strategy bearing in mind you are all "company directors"
I used to buy £5k pots and trade them but more recently been sticking around the £1k mark on more volatile shares and making bits here and there trading rather than "all eggs" in one basket.
indestructible focus said:
Any tips for multibaggers? I know, wishful thinking.
Just taken a 50% hit on HUR, out at 3.35p after a purchase at 6.5p few months back. Was 10% of portfolio so feeling the hit.
Damm aim shares.
Ouch - sorry to hear that buddy. I was in them before but sold out, was looking at them again recently but my laziness saved me!Just taken a 50% hit on HUR, out at 3.35p after a purchase at 6.5p few months back. Was 10% of portfolio so feeling the hit.
Damm aim shares.
My multi-baggers (ie I hope they are) include IDP, RBG and ALGW.
RBG I’ve just topped up on.. both the others have strong potential - ALGW is a real s
t or bust (could multiply quickly or run out of cash). RBG obviously heavily linked to Covid and lockdowns although trading at the moment is ahead of expectations.
IDP has huge multi-bagger potential as well and is (IMO) less of a risk.
All in my very humble opinion, could be wrong.
Just realised I’ve spent too long laughing at LSE threads, please excuse the talk of multi-baggers and any suggestion that I know anything..
It’s been a pretty crap week although at least we seem to be ending on a high note.
RBG have now become my largest gamble share, bought some more today to average down.
Good to see Morgan Stanley take a decent position on Cine.
To answer a previous question.,,
My biggest 2 gains so far are :
N Brown - Up 204%, was a lot more but have a decent amount in them so decent result
4d - Up 151% - haven’t held them for long and it was a good tip from here. Thank you
The losers....
Tils - Down 44%... fk you fomo!
Mulberry - DOWN 41%.. I bought in when I thought they couldn’t go any lower.
From a £ gain perspective SKIN and Boo are my largest gainers and RBG and IDP are my biggest losers.
Not concerned about IDP at all - percentage wise it’s not down much, RBG I’m still topping up on so “happy” to be down at the moment.. I think.. probably concerned to be fair
Ironic that I’ve managed to spend/lose more on a vodka related purchase during a 6 month period where I’ve been on the wagon!
RBG have now become my largest gamble share, bought some more today to average down.
Good to see Morgan Stanley take a decent position on Cine.
To answer a previous question.,,
My biggest 2 gains so far are :
N Brown - Up 204%, was a lot more but have a decent amount in them so decent result
4d - Up 151% - haven’t held them for long and it was a good tip from here. Thank you
The losers....
Tils - Down 44%... f
k you fomo! Mulberry - DOWN 41%.. I bought in when I thought they couldn’t go any lower.
From a £ gain perspective SKIN and Boo are my largest gainers and RBG and IDP are my biggest losers.
Not concerned about IDP at all - percentage wise it’s not down much, RBG I’m still topping up on so “happy” to be down at the moment.. I think.. probably concerned to be fair
Ironic that I’ve managed to spend/lose more on a vodka related purchase during a 6 month period where I’ve been on the wagon!
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