When/Will house prices cool down?

When/Will house prices cool down?

Author
Discussion

nickfrog

21,346 posts

218 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
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Chamon_Lee said:
This is a point many people overlook. They write it off as ah well if it drops down by 20% it is what it is. I have to say I find that mindset very uncomfortable, for 99% of the population saving up 100k deposit is bloody hard work and to then say ah well its been wiped off its ok is crazy.

Another issue that is overlooked is if the housing market does drop approx 20% you can get your back side there is a whole load of pain going on in every other part part of your life. That pain could be in terms of personal liquidity, business issue, redundancies, personal problems with marriages breaking up etc

Too many people here isolate housing price reduction from the rest of the parts of our life.
Or maybe they buy a house to live in it and for the long term?

33q

1,561 posts

124 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
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Fusion777 said:
Some asking prices have been dropping in the last few months (North Notts). Wouldn't say there's been a seismic change yet though.
Quite a few reductions round me in Calverton/Ravenshead. Sales are taking an age.

I've been trying to sell a cottage for 6 months. Buyer dropped out at last minute and I have had one viewing in the last month!


kingston12

5,503 posts

158 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
Chamon_Lee said:
This is a point many people overlook. They write it off as ah well if it drops down by 20% it is what it is. I have to say I find that mindset very uncomfortable, for 99% of the population saving up 100k deposit is bloody hard work and to then say ah well its been wiped off its ok is crazy.

Another issue that is overlooked is if the housing market does drop approx 20% you can get your back side there is a whole load of pain going on in every other part part of your life. That pain could be in terms of personal liquidity, business issue, redundancies, personal problems with marriages breaking up etc

Too many people here isolate housing price reduction from the rest of the parts of our life.
Indeed. This is the key problem with the housing market. It's seen as great news when house prices are rocketing, but a relatively small blip the other way causes untold problems.

It would be better for most people if house prices mirrored inflation in the economy or slightly less, but it's an increasingly emotive market that has never really worked like that anyway.

It's now been 30 years since a lot of areas have seen meaningful and sustained fall in house prices, so it stands to reason that people will see housing as a safe investment, especially when the rest of the economy is all over the place.

The other issue with falling house prices is further contraction in supply, as people don't want to sell at the lower prices. It can actually a good thing for upsizers of course, as it's cheaper to move from a £500k house to a £1m house if the prices have dropped to £400k and £800k if everything else remains equal, but a lot of people refuse to see that.

nickfrog

21,346 posts

218 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
33q said:
I've been trying to sell a cottage for 6 months. Buyer dropped out at last minute and I have had one viewing in the last month!
If it is marketed and presented well then it just means it is overpriced for the amount of demand at that price point.

ChocolateFrog

25,815 posts

174 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
I've been watching this one. It would be a record for our estate and would in effect mean mine has gone up atleast 80% in 4 years.

I found this property on the Rightmove Android app and wanted you to see it: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124210985

That said it's clearly overpriced and isn't selling when everything else that was going on the market was selling within days.

My gut feeling is they've missed the boat by being 5-10% too greedy.

Edited by ChocolateFrog on Thursday 8th September 09:54

Rob_125

1,458 posts

149 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
33q said:
I've been trying to sell a cottage for 6 months. Buyer dropped out at last minute and I have had one viewing in the last month!
If it is marketed and presented well then it just means it is overpriced for the amount of demand at that price point.
Simple economics. When I sold my house last year the agent put it up for 270k. Despite the hot market, I had around 10 viewings and no offers in 2 weeks. I dropped the price to 260k, which I then got in a matter of days. Depends on your position, I had made 92k in 7 years on the property, I wanted to release equity quickly to keep my liquidity since I had already purchased another property.

FourGears

270 posts

56 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
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I have no crystal ball but would have thought help to buy ending will have an effect on the lower end of the market.

pb8g09

2,389 posts

70 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
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ChocolateFrog said:
It's more like 30-50% over near me, although some of that is because prices still hadn't quite recovered to 2007 levels pre-pamdemic.

Stuff is way overpriced at the moment though.

I'm sitting tight until next year or 2024. Worst case is my current house continues to increase in value.
Snap.

Getting to the point of selling it all in a few years and relocating to Newcastle - salaries don't seem too different to South Coast but the houses are half the price!

Edible Roadkill

1,689 posts

178 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
ChocolateFrog said:
I've been watching this one. It would be a record for our estate and would in effect mean mine has gone up atleast 80% in 4 years.

I found this property on the Rightmove Android app and wanted you to see it: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124210985

That said it's clearly overpriced and isn't selling when everything else that was going on the market was selling within days.

My gut feeling is they've missed the boat by being 5-10% too greedy.

Edited by ChocolateFrog on Thursday 8th September 09:54
80% increase in 4yrs……thus why it’s fk’d / unsustainable!!

What’s the real time wage increases over the same time, probably negative !!

Yeah we’re in for a correction, a big one imo. All the current indicators are showing things being worse than the 90’s.was it a 35% correction then & took 7yrs to recover I think it was.

It has to be due a big correction !!

Rob_125

1,458 posts

149 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
ChocolateFrog said:
I've been watching this one. It would be a record for our estate and would in effect mean mine has gone up atleast 80% in 4 years.

I found this property on the Rightmove Android app and wanted you to see it: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124210985

That said it's clearly overpriced and isn't selling when everything else that was going on the market was selling within days.

My gut feeling is they've missed the boat by being 5-10% too greedy.

Edited by ChocolateFrog on Thursday 8th September 09:54
Wow, makes it even more mad is that could easily be a 500-600k house in the southwest.

Edible Roadkill

1,689 posts

178 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
Tbh I wouldn’t care at all about a 35% correction, what keeps me awake more is wondering how my kids will get on the housing ladder, I couldn’t care much about how much some shiny suit thinks he can get for my house it’s largely irrelevant to me. I live in my house and probably will until the day I die so it’s value it a meaningless to me.

Rarely the consumer / owner benefits from high property prices. Unless you are using property as an income/investment.

anonymous-user

55 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
Rob_125 said:
ChocolateFrog said:
I've been watching this one. It would be a record for our estate and would in effect mean mine has gone up atleast 80% in 4 years.

I found this property on the Rightmove Android app and wanted you to see it: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/124210985

That said it's clearly overpriced and isn't selling when everything else that was going on the market was selling within days.

My gut feeling is they've missed the boat by being 5-10% too greedy.

Edited by ChocolateFrog on Thursday 8th September 09:54
Wow, makes it even more mad is that could easily be a 500-600k house in the southwest.
That's easily a £1 million house where I live, if I could pay £315K for it I would be mortgage free and most likely retired now.

Edible Roadkill said:
Tbh I wouldn’t care at all about a 35% correction, what keeps me awake more is wondering how my kids will get on the housing ladder, I couldn’t care much about how much some shiny suit thinks he can get for my house it’s largely irrelevant to me. I live in my house and probably will until the day I die so it’s value it a meaningless to me.

Rarely the consumer / owner benefits from high property prices. Unless you are using property as an income/investment.
Same here, my children are 15 and 13 and I think unless they somehow get very highly paid jobs there is no hope, especially after coming out of uni with £50K debt. Realistically I think they are going to have to wait until I die before they can afford to buy a house.

Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 8th September 10:31

Edible Roadkill

1,689 posts

178 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
Million quid for a Wimpey homes cardboard box estate clone…..oh dear that’s pitiful !! frown

Chamon_Lee

3,820 posts

148 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
Chamon_Lee said:
This is a point many people overlook. They write it off as ah well if it drops down by 20% it is what it is. I have to say I find that mindset very uncomfortable, for 99% of the population saving up 100k deposit is bloody hard work and to then say ah well its been wiped off its ok is crazy.

Another issue that is overlooked is if the housing market does drop approx 20% you can get your back side there is a whole load of pain going on in every other part part of your life. That pain could be in terms of personal liquidity, business issue, redundancies, personal problems with marriages breaking up etc

Too many people here isolate housing price reduction from the rest of the parts of our life.
Or maybe they buy a house to live in it and for the long term?
I am sure we all do right? That doesn't mean losing a 100k or more is OK and before you say well its not a loss if you don't sell it, its still a loss!
Its money you have had to give or pay back that you have lost.


Edible Roadkill

1,689 posts

178 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
Same here, my children are 15 and 13 and I think unless they somehow get very highly paid jobs there is no hope, especially after coming out of uni with £50K debt. Realistically I think they are going to have to wait until I die before they can afford to buy a house.

Edited by Joey Deacon on Thursday 8th September 10:31
I find it really odd the amount of people who glee about how much their homes now worth, but irrespective of what it actually means to them.

Who actually benefits from high house prices, the banks, the estate agents, the government. laugh

anonymous-user

55 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
Edible Roadkill said:
I find it really odd the amount of people who glee about how much their homes now worth, but irrespective of what it actually means to them.

Who actually benefits from high house prices, the banks, the estate agents, the government. laugh
It gives homeowners a warm fuzzy feeling whilst they check out Zoopla, wondering why their 30 year old children still live at home.


NortonES2

307 posts

49 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
Edible Roadkill said:
I find it really odd the amount of people who glee about how much their homes now worth, but irrespective of what it actually means to them.

Who actually benefits from high house prices, the banks, the estate agents, the government. laugh
People with more than one house and those that inherit parents property.

kingston12

5,503 posts

158 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
NortonES2 said:
Edible Roadkill said:
I find it really odd the amount of people who glee about how much their homes now worth, but irrespective of what it actually means to them.

Who actually benefits from high house prices, the banks, the estate agents, the government. laugh
People with more than one house and those that inherit parents property.
Yep, and downsizers who do so to fund their retirement.

For almost everyone outside of these groups, the lower houses prices are, the batter.

33q

1,561 posts

124 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
nickfrog said:
33q said:
I've been trying to sell a cottage for 6 months. Buyer dropped out at last minute and I have had one viewing in the last month!
If it is marketed and presented well then it just means it is overpriced for the amount of demand at that price point.
Agent is confident it's well priced as I reduced it to well below his and other valuations. Mortgage valuation of my lost buyer was no issue. It needs a lot of work and the market for projects is limited particularly at the moment.

I may do the work myself if it doesn't go by New Year. My thinking is that demand for builders and materials may be easing and spending on it may get me a better margin.

nickfrog

21,346 posts

218 months

Thursday 8th September 2022
quotequote all
33q said:
nickfrog said:
33q said:
I've been trying to sell a cottage for 6 months. Buyer dropped out at last minute and I have had one viewing in the last month!
If it is marketed and presented well then it just means it is overpriced for the amount of demand at that price point.
Agent is confident it's well priced as I reduced it to well below his and other valuations. Mortgage valuation of my lost buyer was no issue. It needs a lot of work and the market for projects is limited particularly at the moment.

I may do the work myself if it doesn't go by New Year. My thinking is that demand for builders and materials may be easing and spending on it may get me a better margin.
Sometimes niche houses need more time and are not actually that price sensitive. All the best either way beer