Trump in power - impact on UK and other economies
Discussion
jeff m2 said:
Impact on UK.
Obama was the most anti UK President in US history, so things can only get better.
Let's hope so.
Obama was the most anti UK President in US history, so things can only get better.
Let's hope so.
Amazing how quickly people forget that. Obama was vocal in his books about his contempt of the UK.This guy can frankly be quite the improvement, although not to Nippy Nikki Sturgeon. She committed the rookie mistake of slagging him off and backing the other horse 48 hrs ago.
Hainey said:
jeff m2 said:
Impact on UK.
Obama was the most anti UK President in US history, so things can only get better.
Let's hope so.
Obama was the most anti UK President in US history, so things can only get better.
Let's hope so.
Amazing how quickly people forget that. Obama was vocal in his books about his contempt of the UK.This guy can frankly be quite the improvement, although not to Nippy Nikki Sturgeon. She committed the rookie mistake of slagging him off and backing the other horse 48 hrs ago.
It's all online.
MarshPhantom said:
Hainey said:
jeff m2 said:
Impact on UK.
Obama was the most anti UK President in US history, so things can only get better.
Let's hope so.
Obama was the most anti UK President in US history, so things can only get better.
Let's hope so.
Amazing how quickly people forget that. Obama was vocal in his books about his contempt of the UK.This guy can frankly be quite the improvement, although not to Nippy Nikki Sturgeon. She committed the rookie mistake of slagging him off and backing the other horse 48 hrs ago.
It's all online.
Hainey said:
MarshPhantom said:
Hainey said:
jeff m2 said:
Impact on UK.
Obama was the most anti UK President in US history, so things can only get better.
Let's hope so.
Obama was the most anti UK President in US history, so things can only get better.
Let's hope so.
Amazing how quickly people forget that. Obama was vocal in his books about his contempt of the UK.This guy can frankly be quite the improvement, although not to Nippy Nikki Sturgeon. She committed the rookie mistake of slagging him off and backing the other horse 48 hrs ago.
It's all online.
If you had been shorting sterling, you'd be unhappy. Gilt yields are rising, and were you deluding yourself over those high dividends/high EPS? I think we could see income based strategies stutter.
Given Flynn's influence within Trump's inner circle can only increase, did this speech offer a reliable insight I wonder. Most financial planners were mellow about Trump, and it's little surprise that US markets are currently optimistic (#5 in particular, refers). It may be useful to look at geographical holdings in your portfolio and gauge them against your risk capacity and strategy. Especially so, as most investors are home biased anyway.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/10/inside-genera...
Given Flynn's influence within Trump's inner circle can only increase, did this speech offer a reliable insight I wonder. Most financial planners were mellow about Trump, and it's little surprise that US markets are currently optimistic (#5 in particular, refers). It may be useful to look at geographical holdings in your portfolio and gauge them against your risk capacity and strategy. Especially so, as most investors are home biased anyway.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/10/inside-genera...
Ginge R said:
Macs should now fall in price again, right?
I'm optimistic. Trump's acceptance speech was unusually conciliatory, and seemed to be a call to arms to America to rebuild, and not just walls. Domestically, I think it'll be good for American markets and I think too, we'll see, globally, a change of impetus, too. The uncertainty over defence, trade and environmental pacts with international partners will result in more volatility and uncertainty though, IMHO.
Overall though, we've been here so often of late, I wonder if markets won't react with quite as much volatility as we may once have thought. Maybe we have already priced much of the movement in. I think many clients are far more cognisant and accepting of political events creating volatility these days. So, no big changes in proposition. Interestingly, once again, the pollsters, many active fund managers and hedge funds seem to have got it wrong.
I don't imagine many brokers would have seen much churn either, because everyone was expecting a Clinton victory. There are so many positive noises coming from the US now, that markets have to be cautious that they don't talk up a bull run. It's human nature not to learn from mistakes, fear and greed (etc). Just published..I'm optimistic. Trump's acceptance speech was unusually conciliatory, and seemed to be a call to arms to America to rebuild, and not just walls. Domestically, I think it'll be good for American markets and I think too, we'll see, globally, a change of impetus, too. The uncertainty over defence, trade and environmental pacts with international partners will result in more volatility and uncertainty though, IMHO.
Overall though, we've been here so often of late, I wonder if markets won't react with quite as much volatility as we may once have thought. Maybe we have already priced much of the movement in. I think many clients are far more cognisant and accepting of political events creating volatility these days. So, no big changes in proposition. Interestingly, once again, the pollsters, many active fund managers and hedge funds seem to have got it wrong.
http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/kaletsky...
Ginge R said:
There are so many positive noises coming from the US now, that markets have to be cautious that they don't talk up a bull run.
FTSE 100 has actually fallen nearly 3% in the last two days. One possibility is that potentially facing trade tariffs into Europe and potentially facing trade tariffs into USA, UK could be royally shafted. Let's hope that's not the way things work out.Ozzie Osmond said:
Ginge R said:
There are so many positive noises coming from the US now, that markets have to be cautious that they don't talk up a bull run.
FTSE 100 has actually fallen nearly 3% in the last two days. One possibility is that potentially facing trade tariffs into Europe and potentially facing trade tariffs into USA, UK could be royally shafted. Let's hope that's not the way things work out.Could end up great, could end up in a real s
t storm. Does anyone really know?
Ozzie Osmond said:
Ginge R said:
There are so many positive noises coming from the US now, that markets have to be cautious that they don't talk up a bull run.
FTSE 100 has actually fallen nearly 3% in the last two days. One possibility is that potentially facing trade tariffs into Europe and potentially facing trade tariffs into USA, UK could be royally shafted. Let's hope that's not the way things work out.
. Where's Hanson these day? 
DonkeyApple said:
Just reshuffle the losers away each Q . Where's Hanson these days?
I use to like Whitbread back in the day.. Where's Hanson these days? Bit of an Emerging Market fund sell off here (US), it wasn't really solid money, just people looking for lower p/es.
I took EM profits too.
Banks are up (a lot) still a hold because of the overdue Fed action on rates.
If the sanctions on Russia are lifted or softened and Turkey recovers maybe an opportunity in Emerg Europe.
I can't see UK losing it's money hub status, alternatives just not there.
I see Trump to be the least of your problems. Maybe even a small positive.
PS can you please up your consumer spending, I need the rate over 1.3. Thank you.
Ozzie Osmond said:
FTSE 100 has actually fallen nearly 3% in the last two days. One possibility is that potentially facing trade tariffs into Europe and potentially facing trade tariffs into USA, UK could be royally shafted. Let's hope that's not the way things work out.
Yes, that was the point I made about international partners, it's not just us. Sterling has recovered a little since he got elected, so the FTSE has dropped. Domestically, things will be looking good for the US over the medium term IMHO. 
Bond yields are rising, hence the prices drop. The US has a long overdue rate rise which will also have an effect as it prices in.
UK gilts. What can I say, the Pound has dropped 15% against other currencies, gilts are sterling denominated.
They lose their appeal.
Nothing to do with Trump.
UK gilts. What can I say, the Pound has dropped 15% against other currencies, gilts are sterling denominated.
They lose their appeal.
Nothing to do with Trump.
jeff m2 said:
Bond yields are rising, hence the prices drop. The US has a long overdue rate rise which will also have an effect as it prices in.
UK gilts. What can I say, the Pound has dropped 15% against other currencies, gilts are sterling denominated.
They lose their appeal.
Nothing to do with Trump.
Trouble is the last decade has seen widows and orphans buying toxic debt on 4% yields and using leverage to increase the return. A bit more of a drop and a few margin calls and defaults and we're back to 2007. I don't really see Trump being the cause but his words have highlighted the massive problem that waits for us all down the line. UK gilts. What can I say, the Pound has dropped 15% against other currencies, gilts are sterling denominated.
They lose their appeal.
Nothing to do with Trump.
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