NVIDIA - your thoughts?
Discussion
greengreenwood7 said:
@Batforce....don't know if you have access to NVDS in your ISA?
If your comfortable with doing it - could always either use any cash that's sitting in there to buy NVDS if NVDA starts to pullback, or sell the pot ( when you think its overheated) and be ready to deploy into NVDS ( the inverse of NVDA ).
Thanks GGW7, I'll take a look. Historically I've been a buy and forget person, never tried to time the market really..If your comfortable with doing it - could always either use any cash that's sitting in there to buy NVDS if NVDA starts to pullback, or sell the pot ( when you think its overheated) and be ready to deploy into NVDS ( the inverse of NVDA ).
Mankers said:
What else do you own stock / equity wise or is this a single stock play (ie undiversified)?
I'm pretty well diversifed, fairly heavy on tech but that's the sector I work in so I know it better than others. Thanks for the recommendation and will take a look - I'm in L&G Tech Index which I've had since 2008, Pictet Robotics and Close FTSE Techmark - the latter I'm trying to find an alternative for - something that focuses on UK technology which isn't a VCT or the like...dingg said:
Ride your winners cut your losers
Pretty much my philosophy, although I do have a "junk" portfolio which currently consists of EQT, SYME and PHE... no point selling them as they are largely worthless and I hold out hope one of them will shoot for the moon one day!I think I'll just stick a stop loss on the NVIDIA and forget about them!
Thanks all!
My experience thus far with AI is hype train.
Value definitely there, but twelvety trillion dollars is probably too much.
But in the end personal views and long-term sentiment and trying to mystic-Meg the future are irrelevant. What matters is making money.
Right now just take profit and hold.
Nvidia could be worth 10x in 10 years. Or square root of naff all. No one knows.
Value definitely there, but twelvety trillion dollars is probably too much.
But in the end personal views and long-term sentiment and trying to mystic-Meg the future are irrelevant. What matters is making money.
Right now just take profit and hold.
Nvidia could be worth 10x in 10 years. Or square root of naff all. No one knows.
dingg said:
Ride your winners cut your losers
Imo once the split happens stick a stop on them that you're comfortable with and review every so often, raise the stop as appropriate until the story changes..
i never use stops, the market just does random crashes for 2 seconds and you get stopped out. Imo once the split happens stick a stop on them that you're comfortable with and review every so often, raise the stop as appropriate until the story changes..
dingg said:
Ride your winners cut your losers
Easy to say although it doesn't make any sense if you're interested in the concept of "diversification". You'll risk ending up with an increasingly concentrated portfolio that's going like a train until suddenly ..... it isn't.IMO it's well worth maintaining balance even at the expense of pursuing ultimate gains.
Mr Whippy said:
My experience thus far with AI is hype train.
Value definitely there, but twelvety trillion dollars is probably too much.
But in the end personal views and long-term sentiment and trying to mystic-Meg the future are irrelevant. What matters is making money.
Right now just take profit and hold.
Nvidia could be worth 10x in 10 years. Or square root of naff all. No one knows.
It’s what the industry calls “AI washing”.Value definitely there, but twelvety trillion dollars is probably too much.
But in the end personal views and long-term sentiment and trying to mystic-Meg the future are irrelevant. What matters is making money.
Right now just take profit and hold.
Nvidia could be worth 10x in 10 years. Or square root of naff all. No one knows.
Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
oneandone said:
It’s what the industry calls “AI washing”.
Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
Is that the same catch up China has achieved chasing ASML. If China invested about 1T they’d reach ASML in 2032, by which time ASML would be further ahead. It is a frivolous comment ‘new entrants will catch up fast’. Can you articulate how? I heard Intel and AMD would catch up. They never did. Once an architecture is embedded in the DC it is very very sticky. And AI is not just about GPU. It is the entire stack. Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
I would go far as to suggest, even if AMD chips were free they still wouldn’t be cheap enough.
AdamIM said:
oneandone said:
It’s what the industry calls “AI washing”.
Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
Is that the same catch up China has achieved chasing ASML. If China invested about 1T they’d reach ASML in 2032, by which time ASML would be further ahead. It is a frivolous comment ‘new entrants will catch up fast’. Can you articulate how? I heard Intel and AMD would catch up. They never did. Once an architecture is embedded in the DC it is very very sticky. And AI is not just about GPU. It is the entire stack. Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
I would go far as to suggest, even if AMD chips were free they still wouldn’t be cheap enough.
holes , everyone has one…” I don’t look at this as an outsider speculating on stock valuations, just as someone with nearly 40 years in vendor land in the tech sector.
It’s far easier and cheaper to imitate than it is to innovate, followers will copy at a fraction of the R&D.
NVIDiA got lucky several times ( but not taking anything away from them and all my friends who work there, they did a brilliant job capitalising on it)
They were a graphics company and someone worked out they could run virtual servers on.
They had 2 waves of crypto mining
There is a massive AI bubble and they are front and center.
AI is a bubble ( unless you have a vested interest, then it’s fledgling), it may still have a long way to go, but someone will get caught holding the baby.
The final issue is the one that has impacted every single tech company and that’s the innovator’s dilemma.
You may not agree with my opinion and I may not agree with yours, but seeing as it’s all speculative, only time will show the answer.
I’m crap at holding stock, if I were the op I’d sell and enjoy my upside, but that’s just me
AdamIM said:
oneandone said:
It’s what the industry calls “AI washing”.
Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
Is that the same catch up China has achieved chasing ASML. If China invested about 1T they’d reach ASML in 2032, by which time ASML would be further ahead. It is a frivolous comment ‘new entrants will catch up fast’. Can you articulate how? I heard Intel and AMD would catch up. They never did. Once an architecture is embedded in the DC it is very very sticky. And AI is not just about GPU. It is the entire stack. Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
I would go far as to suggest, even if AMD chips were free they still wouldn’t be cheap enough.
The tech world is full of these sorts of stories since the dawn of computing.
Never mind the fact “AI” is software.
We could have sufficiently complex models that are lean enough to run on a current mobile phone in 5 years, who knows…
We could have training models that can run on a fast home gpu. Who knows.
And just to add… most models are trained with copyright data.
Until that issue is resolved in some way the reliance on these AI is at best a bit cautionary isn’t it?
Definitely something to play with and try out but something to invest in big time?
Edited by Mr Whippy on Monday 27th May 21:38
oneandone said:
AdamIM said:
oneandone said:
It’s what the industry calls “AI washing”.
Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
Is that the same catch up China has achieved chasing ASML. If China invested about 1T they’d reach ASML in 2032, by which time ASML would be further ahead. It is a frivolous comment ‘new entrants will catch up fast’. Can you articulate how? I heard Intel and AMD would catch up. They never did. Once an architecture is embedded in the DC it is very very sticky. And AI is not just about GPU. It is the entire stack. Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
I would go far as to suggest, even if AMD chips were free they still wouldn’t be cheap enough.
holes , everyone has one…” I don’t look at this as an outsider speculating on stock valuations, just as someone with nearly 40 years in vendor land in the tech sector.
It’s far easier and cheaper to imitate than it is to innovate, followers will copy at a fraction of the R&D.
NVIDiA got lucky several times ( but not taking anything away from them and all my friends who work there, they did a brilliant job capitalising on it)
They were a graphics company and someone worked out they could run virtual servers on.
They had 2 waves of crypto mining
There is a massive AI bubble and they are front and center.
AI is a bubble ( unless you have a vested interest, then it’s fledgling), it may still have a long way to go, but someone will get caught holding the baby.
The final issue is the one that has impacted every single tech company and that’s the innovator’s dilemma.
You may not agree with my opinion and I may not agree with yours, but seeing as it’s all speculative, only time will show the answer.
I’m crap at holding stock, if I were the op I’d sell and enjoy my upside, but that’s just me
AdamIM said:
oneandone said:
AdamIM said:
oneandone said:
It’s what the industry calls “AI washing”.
Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
Is that the same catch up China has achieved chasing ASML. If China invested about 1T they’d reach ASML in 2032, by which time ASML would be further ahead. It is a frivolous comment ‘new entrants will catch up fast’. Can you articulate how? I heard Intel and AMD would catch up. They never did. Once an architecture is embedded in the DC it is very very sticky. And AI is not just about GPU. It is the entire stack. Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
I would go far as to suggest, even if AMD chips were free they still wouldn’t be cheap enough.
holes , everyone has one…” I don’t look at this as an outsider speculating on stock valuations, just as someone with nearly 40 years in vendor land in the tech sector.
It’s far easier and cheaper to imitate than it is to innovate, followers will copy at a fraction of the R&D.
NVIDiA got lucky several times ( but not taking anything away from them and all my friends who work there, they did a brilliant job capitalising on it)
They were a graphics company and someone worked out they could run virtual servers on.
They had 2 waves of crypto mining
There is a massive AI bubble and they are front and center.
AI is a bubble ( unless you have a vested interest, then it’s fledgling), it may still have a long way to go, but someone will get caught holding the baby.
The final issue is the one that has impacted every single tech company and that’s the innovator’s dilemma.
You may not agree with my opinion and I may not agree with yours, but seeing as it’s all speculative, only time will show the answer.
I’m crap at holding stock, if I were the op I’d sell and enjoy my upside, but that’s just me
AdamIM said:
oneandone said:
AdamIM said:
oneandone said:
It’s what the industry calls “AI washing”.
Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
Is that the same catch up China has achieved chasing ASML. If China invested about 1T they’d reach ASML in 2032, by which time ASML would be further ahead. It is a frivolous comment ‘new entrants will catch up fast’. Can you articulate how? I heard Intel and AMD would catch up. They never did. Once an architecture is embedded in the DC it is very very sticky. And AI is not just about GPU. It is the entire stack. Add a tenuous link to AI to your offering and hope to get dragged along in the hype.
Wasn’t so long ago everything became a “cloud”, for the same reason.
Also other players and new Chinese entrants will play catch up very quickly.
I would go far as to suggest, even if AMD chips were free they still wouldn’t be cheap enough.
holes , everyone has one…” I don’t look at this as an outsider speculating on stock valuations, just as someone with nearly 40 years in vendor land in the tech sector.
It’s far easier and cheaper to imitate than it is to innovate, followers will copy at a fraction of the R&D.
NVIDiA got lucky several times ( but not taking anything away from them and all my friends who work there, they did a brilliant job capitalising on it)
They were a graphics company and someone worked out they could run virtual servers on.
They had 2 waves of crypto mining
There is a massive AI bubble and they are front and center.
AI is a bubble ( unless you have a vested interest, then it’s fledgling), it may still have a long way to go, but someone will get caught holding the baby.
The final issue is the one that has impacted every single tech company and that’s the innovator’s dilemma.
You may not agree with my opinion and I may not agree with yours, but seeing as it’s all speculative, only time will show the answer.
I’m crap at holding stock, if I were the op I’d sell and enjoy my upside, but that’s just me
guyvert1 said:
The ones with these 'opinions' seem to follow the same lines as they normally do, always odd they when they appear as another id and start all over again, why bother ?
“These opinions” you mean the ones that don’t agree with or support you ?
I’ve given an “opinion” based on a life time of experienced, I have no vested interest, I’d wager you do though...
From what I have read the fundamentals and Nvidia’s market position are very strong…unlikely anyone else suddenly appears that is going to challenge their position in the short to medium term. There are question is really two fold Do you like Nvidia and do you think the current “Tech Boom” is overdone or has further to run ? The latter is probably your biggest concern on the downside/risk…that the market decides the tech boom is done.
Mr Whippy said:
And just to add… most models are trained with copyright data.
Until that issue is resolved in some way the reliance on these AI is at best a bit cautionary isn’t it?
Definitely something to play with and try out but something to invest in big time?
AI isn't just Generative AI, i.e. ChatGPT which is a s/w based on Deep Learning techniques - Gen AI is just getting all the attention at the moment! The copyright issue is a real one that needs to be solved for the creative industries but imagine the value of applying ML to data that you own - historical, real or synthetic? This can bring a huge amount of value to an organisation and people are paying for it...believe me Until that issue is resolved in some way the reliance on these AI is at best a bit cautionary isn’t it?
Definitely something to play with and try out but something to invest in big time?
oneandone said:
guyvert1 said:
The ones with these 'opinions' seem to follow the same lines as they normally do, always odd they when they appear as another id and start all over again, why bother ?
“These opinions” you mean the ones that don’t agree with or support you ?
I’ve given an “opinion” based on a life time of experienced, I have no vested interest, I’d wager you do though...
Can’t see anyone catching up soon, from the times today
Nvidia boss hurries out new serving of chips to hungry market.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article
/c84d110c-8951-41a3-aff2-0d418e8302bf?
shareToken=9bae6b34b3382618
d2c4b2eebeaf6c62
Nvidia boss hurries out new serving of chips to hungry market.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article
/c84d110c-8951-41a3-aff2-0d418e8302bf?
shareToken=9bae6b34b3382618
d2c4b2eebeaf6c62
BatForcePC said:
Mr Whippy said:
And just to add… most models are trained with copyright data.
Until that issue is resolved in some way the reliance on these AI is at best a bit cautionary isn’t it?
Definitely something to play with and try out but something to invest in big time?
AI isn't just Generative AI, i.e. ChatGPT which is a s/w based on Deep Learning techniques - Gen AI is just getting all the attention at the moment! The copyright issue is a real one that needs to be solved for the creative industries but imagine the value of applying ML to data that you own - historical, real or synthetic? This can bring a huge amount of value to an organisation and people are paying for it...believe me Until that issue is resolved in some way the reliance on these AI is at best a bit cautionary isn’t it?
Definitely something to play with and try out but something to invest in big time?
And who owns data? I have years of creative data going back but none has anything in contracts about feeding it into ML systems.
So what is the value it can bring into an organisation?
Explain explicitly with an example.
Ie, business X spent £1,000,000 on NN AI, applied it to their data sets, and now makes £2,000,000 more each year by doing XYZ differently and has stolen market share in a novel way that their competitors can’t and will retain this competitive edge, while also not now shedding jobs which would be deflationary if applied widely, itself then harming the economy and ability to make money.
As I see it AI basically saves money on employees. But employees need work to buy the s
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