Brewdog shares
Discussion
DonkeyApple said:
So you're saying kids shouldn't be allowed to buy beer? 
I know what you are saying but these competitions only work precisely because consumers don't calculate risk/reward and we have rules and regs in the UK to protect them as a result of this known and driving reality. We obviously have the rules of the Gaming Act and we have competition rules but at the bottom we have marketing rules.
In this instance, you can't say something is solid gold when it isn't even if it's pretty obvious that a can of that volume wouldn't be worth just £15k. We know that the vast majority of consumers who are of the type that are triggered into making purchases as a result of games, competitions, offers etc won't be making that basic calculation. But the crux is the valuation. There has to be justification for the published claim of £15k. And that's exactly what Brewdog have. They have a piece of paper from a third party that has calculated the can's possible value. It will have been constructed using published data from previous sales of junk at values well over any logical value. It'll be playing to the concept that consumers with the least amount of money tend to give objects the highest values.
What is likely to happen now is that they will have to send that documentation over as part of any enquiry and it will be decided whether they were taking the complete piss out of mug customers, whether the valuation was just bullish and erred on the implausible or whether it was totally kosher and its generally accepted that there are more than enough idiots with crypto winnings to piss away.
.
The agent may even have chosen to ask a specially selected group of people what they thought the value of a gold plated can with an on trend word/brand on it would be and have clear data showing that the average value given in response exceeded £15k. If you were to stand at the top of any highstreet and stop people to ask what it was worth you'd generally get people saying a few quid but go to the bottom of the highstreet, on a Saturday when the younger people are out and you'll start getting whacky numbers from people. Once you've a suitable number of consecutive answers containing some more stupid ones that will spike your end number and also some properly stupid ones that you can delete as anomalies to show you're being professional then you have completely logorante data to back up your claim of potential value.
If you look at the small print on adverts for beauty products that are a load of snake oil you will see weird sample numbers of consumers such as '77 of 108 people asked said they saw visible results'. Now we know that all they've done is asked several thousand people and then gone through the data to find a long enough run of favourable responses to meet the guidelines and achieve the result of giving the impression that the product works but the target customer is the one who sets out wanting to believe so most won't even look at the small print and those who do will suspect rational thought to see what they want to see.
We all remember being told by an American firm that cats had specifically told them how much they liked their product. When it was finally pointed out that cats almost certainly hadn't told them jack then they changed the word to owners but they almost certainly would have collated some data to back up the total coincidence that the same number of owners liked the food as much as cats previously did.
In the U.K., a well-known advertising slogan for Whiskas was "eight out of 10 owners said their cat prefers it".[1] After a complaint to the Advertising Standards Authority, this was changed to "eight out of 10 owners who expressed a preference said their cat prefers it"
I'm pretty sure the next thing will be that after a complaint from the Cat Oppression Society they will have to stop using the word 'owner' as cats are free sentient beings that cannot be suckled by the slavers ownership. But that's by the by.
On the surface and from an outside perspective, to go out and offer a slug of brass calling it 'solid gold' and then publishing a valuation of such extreme uplift using the greater fool principal dialled up to the max does suggest a relatively binary set of realities, either the firm is really quite incompetent or it considers their typical customer to be borderline retarded.
Does any of that matter? Probably not. Older customers won't see that value in a decorated paperweight, younger people may see it as the greatest object since the auction of a non fungible token of an image of Elon's first pube. But most people won't care but the brand name will have been put in their heads a little better.
Thanks for that, an intelligent reply and explanation.I know what you are saying but these competitions only work precisely because consumers don't calculate risk/reward and we have rules and regs in the UK to protect them as a result of this known and driving reality. We obviously have the rules of the Gaming Act and we have competition rules but at the bottom we have marketing rules.
In this instance, you can't say something is solid gold when it isn't even if it's pretty obvious that a can of that volume wouldn't be worth just £15k. We know that the vast majority of consumers who are of the type that are triggered into making purchases as a result of games, competitions, offers etc won't be making that basic calculation. But the crux is the valuation. There has to be justification for the published claim of £15k. And that's exactly what Brewdog have. They have a piece of paper from a third party that has calculated the can's possible value. It will have been constructed using published data from previous sales of junk at values well over any logical value. It'll be playing to the concept that consumers with the least amount of money tend to give objects the highest values.
What is likely to happen now is that they will have to send that documentation over as part of any enquiry and it will be decided whether they were taking the complete piss out of mug customers, whether the valuation was just bullish and erred on the implausible or whether it was totally kosher and its generally accepted that there are more than enough idiots with crypto winnings to piss away.
. The agent may even have chosen to ask a specially selected group of people what they thought the value of a gold plated can with an on trend word/brand on it would be and have clear data showing that the average value given in response exceeded £15k. If you were to stand at the top of any highstreet and stop people to ask what it was worth you'd generally get people saying a few quid but go to the bottom of the highstreet, on a Saturday when the younger people are out and you'll start getting whacky numbers from people. Once you've a suitable number of consecutive answers containing some more stupid ones that will spike your end number and also some properly stupid ones that you can delete as anomalies to show you're being professional then you have completely logorante data to back up your claim of potential value.
If you look at the small print on adverts for beauty products that are a load of snake oil you will see weird sample numbers of consumers such as '77 of 108 people asked said they saw visible results'. Now we know that all they've done is asked several thousand people and then gone through the data to find a long enough run of favourable responses to meet the guidelines and achieve the result of giving the impression that the product works but the target customer is the one who sets out wanting to believe so most won't even look at the small print and those who do will suspect rational thought to see what they want to see.
We all remember being told by an American firm that cats had specifically told them how much they liked their product. When it was finally pointed out that cats almost certainly hadn't told them jack then they changed the word to owners but they almost certainly would have collated some data to back up the total coincidence that the same number of owners liked the food as much as cats previously did.
In the U.K., a well-known advertising slogan for Whiskas was "eight out of 10 owners said their cat prefers it".[1] After a complaint to the Advertising Standards Authority, this was changed to "eight out of 10 owners who expressed a preference said their cat prefers it"
I'm pretty sure the next thing will be that after a complaint from the Cat Oppression Society they will have to stop using the word 'owner' as cats are free sentient beings that cannot be suckled by the slavers ownership. But that's by the by.
On the surface and from an outside perspective, to go out and offer a slug of brass calling it 'solid gold' and then publishing a valuation of such extreme uplift using the greater fool principal dialled up to the max does suggest a relatively binary set of realities, either the firm is really quite incompetent or it considers their typical customer to be borderline retarded.
Does any of that matter? Probably not. Older customers won't see that value in a decorated paperweight, younger people may see it as the greatest object since the auction of a non fungible token of an image of Elon's first pube. But most people won't care but the brand name will have been put in their heads a little better.
sevensfun said:
Northernboy said:
Of course, if the company believes that it’s worth fifteen thousand pounds then the decent thing to do would be to offer to pay him that much for it. It’s yet another PR mistake to keep insisting it’s worth so much but then flat refuse to buy it at that price.
They’re not doing too badly though....see how many bars been opened lately or opening soon?They're barely a step above that famous Hooter's prize scam of giving a 'Toy Yoda' instead of a 'Toyota' at this point.
It's not a good look for them.
PorkInsider said:
What relevance is how well or badly they're doing? Other than the fact that if they're doing so well it shouldn't trouble them to make good on the £15k can prize, should it.
They're barely a step above that famous Hooter's prize scam of giving a 'Toy Yoda' instead of a 'Toyota' at this point.
It's not a good look for them.
So you see growth as zero sign of how well they’re doing?They're barely a step above that famous Hooter's prize scam of giving a 'Toy Yoda' instead of a 'Toyota' at this point.
It's not a good look for them.
sevensfun said:
So you see growth as zero sign of how well they’re doing?
As pointed out, they don't pay for capital, and so growth is easy. If people are prepared to give you free money (as it is, effectively free, given they just dilute the existing shareholding) then growth is very easy to come by. You take money (for nothing) and open a new bar. The bar then just has to cover ongoing costs. And even then, who knows if that bar does well or it doesnt? The company can keep up the appearance of growth even it is subsidised by other parts of the business. Given their marketing and somewhat slippery CEO, I wouldn't take anything at face value.
TSG consumer partners (US private equity firm that owns a 22% stake) seem nervous.
Worried enough that they’ve flown their MD across, no doubt to start trying to remove some of the power Watt and Dickie have.
The chaps are desperate for an IPO, but I don’t think the City believe these lads have what it takes right now.
They hired people into leadership roles who had the right fmcg experience to help them develop the business ready to go public... but their senior hires tend to leave rather quickly...
Stunt marketing is always close to the wire..
They’ve done incredible things so far and are smart, driven, entrepreneurs - no doubt about that.
But do they have the maturity to listen and adapt?
It’s an interesting watch
Worried enough that they’ve flown their MD across, no doubt to start trying to remove some of the power Watt and Dickie have.
The chaps are desperate for an IPO, but I don’t think the City believe these lads have what it takes right now.
They hired people into leadership roles who had the right fmcg experience to help them develop the business ready to go public... but their senior hires tend to leave rather quickly...
Stunt marketing is always close to the wire..
They’ve done incredible things so far and are smart, driven, entrepreneurs - no doubt about that.
But do they have the maturity to listen and adapt?
It’s an interesting watch
The spinner of plates said:
but I don’t think the City believe these lads have what it takes right now.
Not if they honestly believe it will float at £2bn. And if it doesn't float there they'll have to explain to their existing shareholders why they were overcharged for their slice of the business.
Or maybe not. But it would be nice to think they would.
Ignoring the £2bn for now, to float they'll need to show either profit from investments made or a strong management team that gives investor confidence.
They've got vision and top line growth, but right now precious little of the above...
Not saying they won't get there, but the road got longer in recent weeks.
They've got vision and top line growth, but right now precious little of the above...
Not saying they won't get there, but the road got longer in recent weeks.
Update on the gold can debacle, and news of a bigger, better, gold can debacle promotion.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/scotland-now/brewdog...
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/scotland-now/brewdog...
bigandclever said:
Update on the gold can debacle, and news of a bigger, better, gold can debacle promotion.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/scotland-now/brewdog...
So about the old promotion... "nothing to see here, move along....... Oh look, a shiny new can over there!" https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/scotland-now/brewdog...
The Record said:
“I got in touch with the can's makers, Thomas Lyte, who told me it was actually brass with a 24-carat gold plating.
"I had it valued by a jewellery expert. He told me it was only worth £500.
...
BrewDog responded: "We stand by the £15,000 valuation of the prize.
Another feather in the cap of James Watt, now admitting to breaking US import laws by not declaring what products were in his drinks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60054053
All continues on the same theme of Mr Watt wanting to grow the business as fast as possible with little regard for much else.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60054053
All continues on the same theme of Mr Watt wanting to grow the business as fast as possible with little regard for much else.
James Watt said:
"In hindsight, there were oversights ... due to the fact we were trying to run a growing business on one side of the Atlantic and start a new business on the other."
Sure lots of businesses are trying to grow, but it doesn't normally include directions from the boss to break the law.. Brewdog employee said:
"The pressure was enormous. 'Just make it happen', that was the culture. It was clear to us this was coming from the top - from James [Watt]."
On an entirely unrelated note I went into the Brewdog bar near New Street station in Brum recently and non of the pumps were working, which made selling their beer rather harder than it should have been! Condi said:
Another feather in the cap of James Watt, now admitting to breaking US import laws by not declaring what products were in his drinks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60054053
All continues on the same theme of Mr Watt wanting to grow the business as fast as possible with little regard for much else.
Something that is abundantly clear regarding Brexit is that they seem to make a point of hiring soppy whingebags who think they should be treated like princesses and when they eventually realise it's just another shttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60054053
All continues on the same theme of Mr Watt wanting to grow the business as fast as possible with little regard for much else.
James Watt said:
"In hindsight, there were oversights ... due to the fact we were trying to run a growing business on one side of the Atlantic and start a new business on the other."
Sure lots of businesses are trying to grow, but it doesn't normally include directions from the boss to break the law.. Brewdog employee said:
"The pressure was enormous. 'Just make it happen', that was the culture. It was clear to us this was coming from the top - from James [Watt]."
On an entirely unrelated note I went into the Brewdog bar near New Street station in Brum recently and non of the pumps were working, which made selling their beer rather harder than it should have been! 
tty, low paid, boring job they run to the media. 'Just make it happen' was the culture - so many t's not what they were told but what they inferred. BrewDog is a 'disrupter' ie it changes the name of everything to sound really cool and then cuts legal corners to get product in under the noses of established businesses that follow the law. But if someone is employed to do a task then wouldn't the Board have a basic expectation that they will 'make it happen?'
And then the 'it was clear it was co
Img from the top' - no s
t, were they expecting corporate guidance to be coming from Mrs Miggins the toilet cleaner?While I may personally think the beer is for today's t
ts who will fall for any old st because they genuinely think they are so important that strangers will give them stuff for free and that the equity is for tts who think 'disrupting' is something magical and amazing when it's just sanctioned law breaking to steal market share and hopefully reach a critical mass before getting caught and you're just placing a binary bet on that singular event, I do very much get the impression that the single biggest mistake of James Watt has been to locate his business away from the South East and to have an HR policy of hiring people who identify as princesses. It's like his staff have actually believed the veneer of marketing ste. Arguably that's a failing of their parents. DonkeyApple said:
I do very much get the impression that the single biggest mistake of James Watt has been to locate his business away from the South East and to have an HR policy of hiring people who identify as princesses. It's like his staff have actually believed the veneer of marketing ste. Arguably that's a failing of their parents.
Are you saying we are all fannies up here DA?te. Arguably that's a failing of their parents. Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff