BOE 3rd November Rate Announcement
Discussion
It is just the end of the beginning.
Interestingly, the FED seem to be talking about having to come down on the rate sooner than wanted. Which isn't exactly good news if correct given that it would imply they're seeing overtightening already.
There is no soft landing as of yet as the economy is nowhere near the landing pad. We may get a soft landing, we may get a monumental asset crash, we most likely will land somewhere between the two but all we can say about right now is that we are in a hiatus while everyone waits to see the data and what's happening.
Lots of retail data due over the coming months, Black Friday, Christmas and the totally debt riddled car market which these days is probably a pretty good consumer confidence/insanity indicator.
Interestingly, the FED seem to be talking about having to come down on the rate sooner than wanted. Which isn't exactly good news if correct given that it would imply they're seeing overtightening already.
There is no soft landing as of yet as the economy is nowhere near the landing pad. We may get a soft landing, we may get a monumental asset crash, we most likely will land somewhere between the two but all we can say about right now is that we are in a hiatus while everyone waits to see the data and what's happening.
Lots of retail data due over the coming months, Black Friday, Christmas and the totally debt riddled car market which these days is probably a pretty good consumer confidence/insanity indicator.
princeperch said:
Panamax said:
Yes, timing can make a big difference. Earlier this week I was reflecting on the different fortunes of Thorntons chocolates, sold to Ferrero for £112m after being completely nailed by the GFC, and Hotel Chocolat now sold to Mars for £534m. The GFC crucified Thorntons chain of shops when customers realised it was so easy to cut back and just buy some chocolate in Tesco.
I had a reservation on at Coq d'Argent for next Monday lunchtime anticipating their £35 Set Menu. Email from them today says they're stopping that menu this weekend and Monday would be either Festive Set Menu at £70 a head or their full a la carte. Crisis? What crisis? (Realistically £125 to £150 a head after wine, sides and 15% service charge. Reservation cancelled.)
I see Coq d'argent have a set menu still but you have to book it via travel zoo. I had a reservation on at Coq d'Argent for next Monday lunchtime anticipating their £35 Set Menu. Email from them today says they're stopping that menu this weekend and Monday would be either Festive Set Menu at £70 a head or their full a la carte. Crisis? What crisis? (Realistically £125 to £150 a head after wine, sides and 15% service charge. Reservation cancelled.)
Here we go again - likely with BoE blowing in the wind.
The story so far,
https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/repor...
The story so far,
- UK economy stagnated; worst performance in G7 in terms of pre-pandemic comparison.
- UK Inflation nowhere near BoE target, not least because rate rises have pushed up costs. Any reduction in inflation has been from energy prices etc rather than attributable to BoE rate hikes.
- Fed moves, BoE tags along behind.
https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/repor...
It’s suddenly a shock that debasing your currency via QE has consequences 
This won’t be over until we all feel pain.
The GFC was an opportunity to exorcise all the leverage, excess greed and dead wood, but it was all largely protected and amplified by policy until now.
There is no way to keep this going now. More stimulus means more inflation.
This will be 10 years of doldrums and inflation that keeps rearing its head as a best case imo.
To think we can get back to the artificial anomaly of 09-20 growth and stimulus is a dream for our economy as it stands.
Utterly full of greed and profiteering and zombie businesses… half the shops and stuff you see to buy is just stuff from aluexpress and the like.
This won’t be over until we all feel pain.
The GFC was an opportunity to exorcise all the leverage, excess greed and dead wood, but it was all largely protected and amplified by policy until now.
There is no way to keep this going now. More stimulus means more inflation.
This will be 10 years of doldrums and inflation that keeps rearing its head as a best case imo.
To think we can get back to the artificial anomaly of 09-20 growth and stimulus is a dream for our economy as it stands.
Utterly full of greed and profiteering and zombie businesses… half the shops and stuff you see to buy is just stuff from aluexpress and the like.
So here we are, two months on, and as forecast the UK economy has sunk into recession thanks to BoE interest rate policy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68285833
Sure, it makes little difference whether the economy is "just in recession" or "just avoiding recession" but either way it's clearly flat-lining.
Goods inflation reverting to norm - thanks primarily to calming of the global energy market.
Wage inflation continuing unabated - thanks, I suggest, to BoE increasing everyone's costs and leading to further wage demands.
Jeremy Hunt scouring the cupboards to find room for tax cuts at a time when UK taxes are the highest since WW2 and many economic groups are saying UK can't afford to cut taxes.
Government spending spiralling out of control. Why? Because it's largely "wage" based and it's wages that continue to rise.
Rail strikes to continue for another six months. NHS strikes not addressed.
What a mess.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68285833
Sure, it makes little difference whether the economy is "just in recession" or "just avoiding recession" but either way it's clearly flat-lining.
Goods inflation reverting to norm - thanks primarily to calming of the global energy market.
Wage inflation continuing unabated - thanks, I suggest, to BoE increasing everyone's costs and leading to further wage demands.
Jeremy Hunt scouring the cupboards to find room for tax cuts at a time when UK taxes are the highest since WW2 and many economic groups are saying UK can't afford to cut taxes.
Government spending spiralling out of control. Why? Because it's largely "wage" based and it's wages that continue to rise.
Rail strikes to continue for another six months. NHS strikes not addressed.
What a mess.
Panamax said:
So here we are, two months on, and as forecast the UK economy has sunk into recession thanks to BoE interest rate policy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68285833
Sure, it makes little difference whether the economy is "just in recession" or "just avoiding recession" but either way it's clearly flat-lining.
Goods inflation reverting to norm - thanks primarily to calming of the global energy market.
Wage inflation continuing unabated - thanks, I suggest, to BoE increasing everyone's costs and leading to further wage demands.
Jeremy Hunt scouring the cupboards to find room for tax cuts at a time when UK taxes are the highest since WW2 and many economic groups are saying UK can't afford to cut taxes.
Government spending spiralling out of control. Why? Because it's largely "wage" based and it's wages that continue to rise.
Rail strikes to continue for another six months. NHS strikes not addressed.
What a mess.
All very true.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68285833
Sure, it makes little difference whether the economy is "just in recession" or "just avoiding recession" but either way it's clearly flat-lining.
Goods inflation reverting to norm - thanks primarily to calming of the global energy market.
Wage inflation continuing unabated - thanks, I suggest, to BoE increasing everyone's costs and leading to further wage demands.
Jeremy Hunt scouring the cupboards to find room for tax cuts at a time when UK taxes are the highest since WW2 and many economic groups are saying UK can't afford to cut taxes.
Government spending spiralling out of control. Why? Because it's largely "wage" based and it's wages that continue to rise.
Rail strikes to continue for another six months. NHS strikes not addressed.
What a mess.
To add to the depression, there's no sign of any political party having the right skills and non political imperative to achieve any improvement, so the stagnation/decline will continue. How the UK voter will actually vote later this year is all too easy to predict, however. As for me, being non partisan, I've not got a clue which political party I will vote for. Whichever it is, I suspect it will be a party not capable of sorting out the UK, so rather a waste.
R.
.
The Leaper said:
All very true.
To add to the depression, there's no sign of any political party having the right skills and non political imperative to achieve any improvement, so the stagnation/decline will continue. How the UK voter will actually vote later this year is all too easy to predict, however. As for me, being non partisan, I've not got a clue which political party I will vote for. Whichever it is, I suspect it will be a party not capable of sorting out the UK, so rather a waste.
R.
.
We need a change but Labour are not a change but just the next batch of identikit people. I find Reeves very concerning as she has no policy other than simply saying everything is wrong and that it's all someone else's fault. The failure of a viable opposition is as much to blame as the failures of the incumbents. Labour isn't even attempting to woo or serve the people who should be the backbone of their electorate but rather focussing all policy on those that aren't. To add to the depression, there's no sign of any political party having the right skills and non political imperative to achieve any improvement, so the stagnation/decline will continue. How the UK voter will actually vote later this year is all too easy to predict, however. As for me, being non partisan, I've not got a clue which political party I will vote for. Whichever it is, I suspect it will be a party not capable of sorting out the UK, so rather a waste.
R.
.
As for the fact that of ONS data is correct the U.K. may have been in 'recession' last year is of no merit or relevance.
DonkeyApple said:
The Leaper said:
All very true.
To add to the depression, there's no sign of any political party having the right skills and non political imperative to achieve any improvement, so the stagnation/decline will continue. How the UK voter will actually vote later this year is all too easy to predict, however. As for me, being non partisan, I've not got a clue which political party I will vote for. Whichever it is, I suspect it will be a party not capable of sorting out the UK, so rather a waste.
R.
.
We need a change but Labour are not a change but just the next batch of identikit people. I find Reeves very concerning as she has no policy other than simply saying everything is wrong and that it's all someone else's fault. The failure of a viable opposition is as much to blame as the failures of the incumbents. Labour isn't even attempting to woo or serve the people who should be the backbone of their electorate but rather focussing all policy on those that aren't. To add to the depression, there's no sign of any political party having the right skills and non political imperative to achieve any improvement, so the stagnation/decline will continue. How the UK voter will actually vote later this year is all too easy to predict, however. As for me, being non partisan, I've not got a clue which political party I will vote for. Whichever it is, I suspect it will be a party not capable of sorting out the UK, so rather a waste.
R.
.
R.
The Leaper said:
I agree. IMO there's a lack of trustworthy, principal-led, competent persons among all the present MPs. I think the political parties are full of people who have little skill so cannot get a job outside of politics, hence the country is run by people with second/third rates skills and first rate incompetence.
R.
Being an MP is not exactly an attractive prospect, social media pile ons, death threats, threats to families, media invasion of your life etc.R.
Like many things you can also blame social media and the general dumbing down of everything. You might have an MP give a reasoned and thoughtful hour long speech but what makes the headlines is some moronic 3 word soundbite from some two-bit idiot.
I can see why anyone with a brain would avoid it...
The Leaper said:
I agree. IMO there's a lack of trustworthy, principal-led, competent persons among all the present MPs. I think the political parties are full of people who have little skill so cannot get a job outside of politics, hence the country is run by people with second/third rates skills and first rate incompetence.
R.
I quite like Starmer, I think he has principles but even in opposition you can see very clearly he has to continually surrender those principles and once in power he will be bought but a figurehead as it will be the devolved powers who are in charge in the shape of the London and other regional mayors. R.
He is but an Orvil to a tyrannical car and poor people loathing Keith Harris who will be fisted every day for the baying crowds while wishing endlessly that he could fly. But he can't.
The recession deepening will sort the wage inflation issue.
Then the USA going tits up because it’s just blowing more borrowed money on stimulus via fiscal spending… bond yields will rise as no one will want to buy.
Markets tanking there will equalise value with ftse etc somewhat.
Deflation will fix the rest until numbers balance sufficiently to make a working economy.
Ooor, we get printing like never before for the “next crisis”… which serves as cover for all the policy idiocy.
Maybe all the BTFDers have still got it right…? But I think that markets will still dip ala Q1 2020 again before the economic debasement continues.
Then the USA going tits up because it’s just blowing more borrowed money on stimulus via fiscal spending… bond yields will rise as no one will want to buy.
Markets tanking there will equalise value with ftse etc somewhat.
Deflation will fix the rest until numbers balance sufficiently to make a working economy.
Ooor, we get printing like never before for the “next crisis”… which serves as cover for all the policy idiocy.
Maybe all the BTFDers have still got it right…? But I think that markets will still dip ala Q1 2020 again before the economic debasement continues.
okgo said:
They don’t pay a decent wage. And they have plenty of staff. The fact many of them are useless and riding the gravy train is another story
That’s it for me.It’s the old PH classic where some people think you con get lawmakers for ~£100k per year because “it’s a good wage” meanwhile others are pointing out that a decent law graduate can command that leaving uni. I would halve the number of MP’s and triple their wages. There’s some logic there, fewer offices to run would allow for that sort of money at no extra cost to the taxpayer. That way successful and intelligent people would be attracted to the role, we’d get to weed out the s
t candidates we currently have. I’d also like to see zero tolerance for bullst like expenses fiddling, immediate by-election, loss of all non contributory pension rights and the courts taking a dim view to it. Our current system of pay peanuts is getting us monkeys, there’s none of the prestige of oldDonkeyApple said:
I quite like Starmer, I think he has principles but even in opposition you can see very clearly he has to continually surrender those principles and once in power he will be bought but a figurehead as it will be the devolved powers who are in charge in the shape of the London and other regional mayors.
If Starmer has principles that can be given up fairly easily then..... he doesn't have principles.In any case I don't think it really matters - all he needs to be is to avoid rank incompetence of the order that we have seen from Johnson/Truss/Sunak and it's still going to be an improvement.....
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