Share tips thread (Vol 2)

Share tips thread (Vol 2)

Author
Discussion

ATM

18,412 posts

221 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
Greshamst said:
Took the opportunity to buy some Unilever and diageo yesterday as have had my eye on them for a while.

Only problem was on Halifax sharedealing when I pressed to trade it gave me a screen saying the offer had timed out, and I had to refresh for a new quote, which I did.
Then found out two identical trades had gone through.
Complained but they’re saying after investigation, there was no IT issue on their end, so they won’t do anything about it.
I got stopped out of DGE just after last summer I think it was. Am out in general now anyway but I suspect they’ll be pretty badly affected if people stop going out to drink/eat at the moment.

Brave time to get in IMO.
I would argue the opposite. If people stay in then they will buy bottles and cans for home and probably drink more.

R8Steve

4,150 posts

177 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
Greshamst said:
Took the opportunity to buy some Unilever and diageo yesterday as have had my eye on them for a while.

Only problem was on Halifax sharedealing when I pressed to trade it gave me a screen saying the offer had timed out, and I had to refresh for a new quote, which I did.
Then found out two identical trades had gone through.
Complained but they’re saying after investigation, there was no IT issue on their end, so they won’t do anything about it.
Unilever?

One of Unilevers biggest markets is Asia, it didn't perform particularly well last year and the CEO indicated that 2020 was unlikely to be much better. They now have coronavirus to deal with not only in their biggest market but worldwide.

I think it's a bit early to be buying them personally.

Diageo i'd agree with, a good strong company but it's PE ratio is very high, a lot of expectations will need to be met for this to rise significantly.

CellarDoor

894 posts

90 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
R8Steve said:
Greshamst said:
Took the opportunity to buy some Unilever and diageo yesterday as have had my eye on them for a while.

Only problem was on Halifax sharedealing when I pressed to trade it gave me a screen saying the offer had timed out, and I had to refresh for a new quote, which I did.
Then found out two identical trades had gone through.
Complained but they’re saying after investigation, there was no IT issue on their end, so they won’t do anything about it.
Unilever?

One of Unilevers biggest markets is Asia, it didn't perform particularly well last year and the CEO indicated that 2020 was unlikely to be much better. They now have coronavirus to deal with not only in their biggest market but worldwide.

I think it's a bit early to be buying them personally.

Diageo i'd agree with, a good strong company but it's PE ratio is very high, a lot of expectations will need to be met for this to rise significantly.
Aren't Unilever one of the biggest sellers of bleach, cleaning and personal care products globally? I would have thought their range of products would be in high demand globally.



p1stonhead

25,771 posts

169 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
ATM said:
p1stonhead said:
Greshamst said:
Took the opportunity to buy some Unilever and diageo yesterday as have had my eye on them for a while.

Only problem was on Halifax sharedealing when I pressed to trade it gave me a screen saying the offer had timed out, and I had to refresh for a new quote, which I did.
Then found out two identical trades had gone through.
Complained but they’re saying after investigation, there was no IT issue on their end, so they won’t do anything about it.
I got stopped out of DGE just after last summer I think it was. Am out in general now anyway but I suspect they’ll be pretty badly affected if people stop going out to drink/eat at the moment.

Brave time to get in IMO.
I would argue the opposite. If people stay in then they will buy bottles and cans for home and probably drink more.
Compared to what they supply wholesale to bars pubs and restaurants?

Drop in the ocean surely.

bad company

18,780 posts

268 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
Greshamst said:
Took the opportunity to buy some Unilever and diageo yesterday as have had my eye on them for a while.

Only problem was on Halifax sharedealing when I pressed to trade it gave me a screen saying the offer had timed out, and I had to refresh for a new quote, which I did.
Then found out two identical trades had gone through.
Complained but they’re saying after investigation, there was no IT issue on their end, so they won’t do anything about it.
Easy to say after the event but you should have taken a screenshot then made a complaint.

CellarDoor

894 posts

90 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
ATM said:
p1stonhead said:
Greshamst said:
Took the opportunity to buy some Unilever and diageo yesterday as have had my eye on them for a while.

Only problem was on Halifax sharedealing when I pressed to trade it gave me a screen saying the offer had timed out, and I had to refresh for a new quote, which I did.
Then found out two identical trades had gone through.
Complained but they’re saying after investigation, there was no IT issue on their end, so they won’t do anything about it.
I got stopped out of DGE just after last summer I think it was. Am out in general now anyway but I suspect they’ll be pretty badly affected if people stop going out to drink/eat at the moment.

Brave time to get in IMO.
I would argue the opposite. If people stay in then they will buy bottles and cans for home and probably drink more.
Compared to what they supply wholesale to bars pubs and restaurants?

Drop in the ocean surely.
Off trade can be bigger than the On Trade as per this report, presumably supermarkets shift a lot of volume compared to pubs which are closing at a rapid rate:

https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2019/1...



greygoose

8,322 posts

197 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
CellarDoor said:
p1stonhead said:
ATM said:
p1stonhead said:
Greshamst said:
Took the opportunity to buy some Unilever and diageo yesterday as have had my eye on them for a while.

Only problem was on Halifax sharedealing when I pressed to trade it gave me a screen saying the offer had timed out, and I had to refresh for a new quote, which I did.
Then found out two identical trades had gone through.
Complained but they’re saying after investigation, there was no IT issue on their end, so they won’t do anything about it.
Brave time to get in IMO.
I would argue the opposite. If people stay in then they will buy bottles and cans for home and probably drink more.
Compared to what they supply wholesale to bars pubs and restaurants?

Drop in the ocean surely.
Off trade can be bigger than the On Trade as per this report, presumably supermarkets shift a lot of volume compared to pubs which are closing at a rapid rate:

https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2019/1...
Most people I know drink at home rather than going down the pub every night as the prices are extortionate in most pubs, glass of wine the same as a bottle of wine from the local shop, who is going to pay for that? Add n the Coronavirus and sitting at home self-isolating with a drink could add to sales.......

Condi

17,378 posts

173 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
greygoose said:
Most people I know drink at home rather than going down the pub every night as the prices are extortionate in most pubs, glass of wine the same as a bottle of wine from the local shop, who is going to pay for that? Add n the Coronavirus and sitting at home self-isolating with a drink could add to sales.......
Most people I know drink in the pub because its sociable and much better than drinking at home, most of whom are alcoholics.

bad company

18,780 posts

268 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
Condi said:
greygoose said:
Most people I know drink at home rather than going down the pub every night as the prices are extortionate in most pubs, glass of wine the same as a bottle of wine from the local shop, who is going to pay for that? Add n the Coronavirus and sitting at home self-isolating with a drink could add to sales.......
Most people I know drink in the pub because its sociable and much better than drinking at home, most of whom are alcoholics.
Spot on. Alcoholics cannot afford to drink in pubs and who wants to drink alone.

I’ll be off to the pub for couple of pints before dinner shortly.

ATM

18,412 posts

221 months

Wednesday 4th March 2020
quotequote all
bad company said:
Condi said:
greygoose said:
Most people I know drink at home rather than going down the pub every night as the prices are extortionate in most pubs, glass of wine the same as a bottle of wine from the local shop, who is going to pay for that? Add n the Coronavirus and sitting at home self-isolating with a drink could add to sales.......
Most people I know drink in the pub because its sociable and much better than drinking at home, most of whom are alcoholics.
Spot on. Alcoholics cannot afford to drink in pubs and who wants to drink alone.

I’ll be off to the pub for couple of pints before dinner shortly.
If people are going to drink anyway and they cant go to the pub due to outbreak scares or because they are closing down then they will still drink - because they are that sort of people. They will probably put more away at home as it will cost less. The supermarket will make a bit but nowhere near as much as the pubs and restaurants will make.

DonkeyApple

56,009 posts

171 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
CellarDoor said:
Aren't Unilever one of the biggest sellers of bleach, cleaning and personal care products globally? I would have thought their range of products would be in high demand globally.
Indeed. The world is about to go all ‘Netflix and Kleenex’. biggrin

Gandahar

9,600 posts

130 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
There might be a possible big bargain to have with American Airlines when all this is done and dusted.

As we know airlines are quite rightly being hit hard by the virus, as expected, but American Airlines as an American International carrier are being hit harder than United or Delta.

See here



Ouch. That's worse percentage wise than others. South West and Delta have better managerial structure than AA or United but last year AA got ont op of union issues and were set to go .... then the wings have fallen off.

But I think the management is now up to the task. If you look at past year



Beat expectations.

However I am not advising to buy currently, just keep an eye on how low they go for a value buy whenever the virus starts disappearing into history.

Could be the best bottom feed for bargain bucket share hunters.



bad company

18,780 posts

268 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
Legal & General down over 5% today and 14% on the month. Profits increased in all the divisions and there’s a great yield.

Why are the shares dropping in value?

Burwood

18,709 posts

248 months

Thursday 5th March 2020
quotequote all
bad company said:
Legal & General down over 5% today and 14% on the month. Profits increased in all the divisions and there’s a great yield.

Why are the shares dropping in value?
Just a guess. Insurance claims on life or serious illness, can’t work type claims. Plus they also run various assets management schemes

DoubleSix

11,738 posts

178 months

Friday 6th March 2020
quotequote all
bad company said:
Legal & General down over 5% today and 14% on the month. Profits increased in all the divisions and there’s a great yield.

Why are the shares dropping in value?
Buy the rumour, sell the fact.

DonkeyApple

56,009 posts

171 months

Friday 6th March 2020
quotequote all
Burwood said:
bad company said:
Legal & General down over 5% today and 14% on the month. Profits increased in all the divisions and there’s a great yield.

Why are the shares dropping in value?
Just a guess. Insurance claims on life or serious illness, can’t work type claims. Plus they also run various assets management schemes
I like LGEN. It’s a brilliant trading stock as it will sit for months in a very slow range that can be easily traded. It’s a perfect example of what is suitable for people to use leverage for.

The key in this market is that a big chunk of LGEN’s sell down is health/ death risk. It has the long term and ongoing issue that it is an asset manager that typically manages the assets of Westerners but fewer and fewer Westerners have any assets to manage. Once the Boomers are gone LGEN will only have 4 maybe 5 customers in the UK biggrin. They have to go and find the people on the planet who are young and have a future that involves having savings to invest which typically means Asia and there seems to be a temporary hiatus on shopping in that region.

So, their long term drag on performance is related to no one under 50 having any wealth to manage and all their customers who do have wealth are in the at risk group for C19. Plus, the onboarding of new customers will have dropped measurably and this will have a marked impact on that long term drag on performance and possibly push any recovery much further down the road.

Most of the capital flows into LGEN are income funds as opposed to growth. Lots of capital is therefore linked to the div. fears over their solvency ratio puts pressure on the risk of a divi cut and that’s really what the market is probably hedging against at the moment.

It’s a stock that would naturally be on the radar for a sound recovery if the market determines that C19 is not going to make wealthy Boomers all die but instead just keep Gen X and the Millenials away from XTreme Shopping.

R8Steve

4,150 posts

177 months

Friday 6th March 2020
quotequote all
I know this is the share tips thread but is there any fellow shorters on here?

Easy pickings at the moment!

p1stonhead

25,771 posts

169 months

Friday 6th March 2020
quotequote all
Gandahar said:
p1stonhead said:
FredClogs said:
You've got to be brave to not be buying now.
One of the most glass half full statements I’ve read in a long time considering the world right now.
It must be irony surely? That half glass is full of Russian methanol which is supposed to be ethanol which is supposed to be Skol lager....

nono
As of today I revise my glass half full statement to fking mental.

bad company

18,780 posts

268 months

Friday 6th March 2020
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
I like LGEN. It’s a brilliant trading stock as it will sit for months in a very slow range that can be easily traded. It’s a perfect example of what is suitable for people to use leverage for.

The key in this market is that a big chunk of LGEN’s sell down is health/ death risk. It has the long term and ongoing issue that it is an asset manager that typically manages the assets of Westerners but fewer and fewer Westerners have any assets to manage. Once the Boomers are gone LGEN will only have 4 maybe 5 customers in the UK biggrin. They have to go and find the people on the planet who are young and have a future that involves having savings to invest which typically means Asia and there seems to be a temporary hiatus on shopping in that region.

So, their long term drag on performance is related to no one under 50 having any wealth to manage and all their customers who do have wealth are in the at risk group for C19. Plus, the onboarding of new customers will have dropped measurably and this will have a marked impact on that long term drag on performance and possibly push any recovery much further down the road.

Most of the capital flows into LGEN are income funds as opposed to growth. Lots of capital is therefore linked to the div. fears over their solvency ratio puts pressure on the risk of a divi cut and that’s really what the market is probably hedging against at the moment.

It’s a stock that would naturally be on the radar for a sound recovery if the market determines that C19 is not going to make wealthy Boomers all die but instead just keep Gen X and the Millenials away from XTreme Shopping.
Thanks, some interesting points there. I’m going to hold LGEN which is already a core holding for me, I’m essentially an income investor.

Zippee

13,495 posts

236 months

Friday 6th March 2020
quotequote all
bad company said:
Thanks, some interesting points there. I’m going to hold LGEN which is already a core holding for me, I’m essentially an income investor.
Likewise. Long term invest so not overly worried at present.