What’s your big gamble? (Volume 2)

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

Aiminghigh123 said:

Had a really good day.

Spreadbetted RR from Friday taking £636. Shorted it later for another £30.

Sold CINE taking 20% from Friday buy in £388.

Rest is up 3.87%. Almost at break even on IAG finally, 200 is the target sell.

Keep going.

+3.88% for me today - mainly by not doing anything

Up just over 8% on the day, mostly driven by The vodka bar and the dodgy popcorn seller.

I was starting to think about moving the vodka bar to a different account so that I didn’t have to look at it...

[500 Miles]

Adam B said:

hmm down 1.5% today, because I have yet to rotate into recovery stocks

BZT down 10% but people will need copper for all these EV cars and batteries, drilling results imminent so hopeful here
GGP - down due to positive vaccine news
UFO - continues to fall, should have pulled plug ages ago, but now in the "so low who cares bucket"

At least I didnt buy RMS early today

There you go applying logic... much better to bet on pubs and cinemas that are closed.

[500 Miles]

vulture1 said:

500 Miles said:

Adam B said:

hmm down 1.5% today, because I have yet to rotate into recovery stocks

BZT down 10% but people will need copper for all these EV cars and batteries, drilling results imminent so hopeful here
GGP - down due to positive vaccine news
UFO - continues to fall, should have pulled plug ages ago, but now in the "so low who cares bucket"

At least I didnt buy RMS early today

There you go applying logic... much better to bet on pubs and cinemas that are closed.

He returns! Your timing on revolution seems almost perfect.

Assume you can't post so much here now you are heavyly involved in a few companies?

Hello buddy - part of it was keeping a low profile and part of it was just becoming insanely busy with a few things.

Fine being on here as long as I don’t go all Gerry!

[500 Miles]

Luke. said:

Up 13.5% on the day, but only because I sold out of all my sensible investments to pile into CINE. Still £10k down mind you, but now not sh!tting myself I’ve blown the whole lot. Which is how spent most of the summer. Which is nice.

The wheelbarrow is strong with this one..

Top man!

[500 Miles]

Luke. said:

g4ry13 said:

How much exposure have you got in CINE now?

If I recall, it was previously around £60k?

Think it’s around £62k, but I sold them all and bought them all back again twice now in moments of weakness, so gained some extra shares completely unintentionally. Think I’m at around 104500 shares now. It’s not relaxing. But still not a patch on 500 Miles stake in the shtty popcorn company. Obvs.

Between us we must own at least one cinema! Might be handy if lockdown continues.. that popcorn won't eat itself.

[500 Miles]

MikeStroud said:

Having dumped all my original recovery stocks and gone big in gold etc I’m now gonna have to reverse some of that. I’m thinking of hyve and TUI as recovery stocks.

Any thoughts on these? Any better suggestions?

I'm in Hyve and many many times wish I wasn't... although that's only because I got in when they couldn't go any lower.... then they went lower...

I'm now only down 25% and obviously they are still a very long way from pre-covid highs... How many people will really want to go to a conference in the next 24 months... I'm betting there will be more people that want to go on holidays..

Sorry, I'm not helping but it's a stock I keep thinking about selling... I just hate selling at a loss and I also hate selling a stock that will undoubtedly rocket the day after I sell.

[500 Miles]

MikeStroud said:

A few people on here mentioning they don’t want to sell a share at a big loss so sitting on that stuff.

I was like that back in June but now think nothing of selling something I’m 30% down on IF: it’s not going to recover anytime soon and IF there’s another opportunity that will make some money soon.

Why not sell that crud, put it in AA or EUA, get 10%+ in the next month or so then buy back in again?

That’s a much better approach - just need to get over the emotional connection and fomo.

[500 Miles]

ferrisbueller said:

I'd have lost a stload of money.

The hard back is deciding which ones are the true losers and which are just underwater...

My biggest loss is TILS - down 64%.. I managed to hold off buying until the top... then fomo took over and ploughed a decent amount in..

Now I look at it every few days and know it’s a loser...

Others like PMO (down 14%) I think will come good.

RBG was down almost 50% at one point however a mix of averaging down and the recent shareprice bounce has resulted in it being my biggest gainer.

Then there is DeepVerge..... ffs Was up over 100%, now down 11%... is it a loser, or will it climb back up? No idea... I did sell down a bit whilst in profit but still have a decent chunk of shares in them.

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

Aiminghigh123 said:

I’m now 60% down on deepverge. One of my smallest holdings but horrible to see.

I regretted for some time selling out of SKIN for only a 33% profit. Missed some very solid gains, but maybe it was a lucky escape afterall.

I regret ever having heard of Gerry and his cat lady..

[500 Miles]

*Badger* said:

500 Miles said:

The hard back is deciding which ones are the true losers and which are just underwater...

Others like PMO (down 14%) I think will come good.

What is your exposure on PMO in % of your whole portfolio?

I've been in and out a couple of times but cannot decide weather to go back in. Where do you see this heading and why?

It's just less than 1% - This was a very simple covid play - SP was around 100p before the world stopped, obviously the oil price dropped through the floor - as did the oil companies share prices. Bought in waiting for it to recover but haven't followed the company in any detail - I do know that it's not a newsagent though

One of the mistakes I made was to spread my investments too widely which has made it impossible to track the various companies, keep meaning to consolidate.

[500 Miles]

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/new...

Mentions for some of our favourites

[500 Miles]

Chris Type R said:

Nice, I only with you'd mentioned Revolution Bars sooner

No comment

Good to see Boo over 300, will be better when it stuffs with a 4 though..

[500 Miles]

Decent set of results from Microfocus - up 27%, which makes my loss a much more respectable 7%....

I bought when (I thought) they couldn’t go any lower....

[500 Miles]

SpunkyGlory said:

MikeStroud said:

AA

Been rising steadily with decent jump today ahead of next weeks bid deadline.

Take the profit now in case there is another delay and sp drop? Or gamble on a bid coming in higher than the current sp??

I'd be taking it now because I don't have the stones to hold out. But I'd almost certainly also make the wrong decision.

Hope that helps.

I’m holding on which means the bid deadline will probably be extended and the price will drop.

I hope I help as much as SpunkyGlory (There’s a phrase I never thought I would utter)

[500 Miles]

nicklaus1988 said:

Late rise from AVCT, news hopefully imminent.

Of for fk sake...

Held onto them for ages, weren’t doing anything... sold this morning.... a rare sell and I choose the one that goes up 28 fn percent...

Thread rule,.. no one ever speak about Avacta again.. unless it plummets

[500 Miles]

MikeStroud said:

dingg said:

Re Aa.
Someone who has a lot more insight than I have re PE take-over situations reckons that for a bid to be accepted its got to be in the 75p region.

On that basis I will hold and either be a happy chappy or be nursing bruised bks next week again.

Thanks for that. I think 74p is a bit ambitious considering their debt and only one bidder.

That said this is the gambling thread. That means betting on the outcome of an event rather than being in for the long haul. So I’ll stay in and await the outcome of the event next week... even though I’m not hopeful of a positive outcome!!

I agree - I was hopeful of those levels previously when there were multiple bidders but with only one show in town (apart from going it alone) then I think something in the 40’s would be a good outcome. Although I would obviously love any price in the 70’s!

It’s one of those shares that doesn’t seem to do much but I’m actually up circa 80% on it, 74p would give a great return which is probably why it’ll never happen! If it does, I’ll send you a keg of beer to celebrate!

[500 Miles]

Aiminghigh123 said:

Echoing what others have said, trading is a lot about mind set.

I only started investing in April although most of my money went in at the end of June.

Ups and downs is an understatement and I’m only 10% up presently having been as much as 22% up.

My portfolio is like this:

Long Term:
IAG, although half I will sell if it hits 200 the other plan on keeping it for 18 months.
RDSB 10 years minimum. Slowly topping it up when I can.
BP same
Barc same
BAB
SYME is a long term gamble 1 year then sell out.

Short/Medium
GKP target 105 will be 40% gain
RBG target 35 will be 50% gain
AMGO target 20 for 100% gain gamble
GGP up 20% and been selling bits off.
PFC target 200 will be 60% gain

Proper gambles with amounts in that if it goes belly up won’t be end of the world.
DVRG
DRUM
IDP
KOD
RMS
TRX
VLS

Proper gambles usually very volatile and hoping one day they have a random spike and sell for 50-100% which has happened a couple of times but I have also sold some at a loss when they look terminal problems don’t have any movement.

Most of my profits have come from having a price I’m happy to buy in at and a price I’m happy to sell at CINE I doubled from 25-50, it was a long term but vaccine help speed that up. Took another 20% last week 41-49. Looking at low 40s to get in again.

The last 2 weeks I have been doing some spreadbetting. Not for the faint hearted but I have been quite successful. I have been using RR and taken £1500 in profit over 7 active trade days. Been watching the chart and looking for pockets of resistance and buying or selling at these points then exiting 2 points (usually at £30-£60 a point) for profit, sometimes it spikes and can gain a bit more. If it goes 2 points in the wrong directing sell for a loss. My win ratio is quite good at the moment, might be luck will see after a month.

Sorry long post.

Good post - although I can’t believe you’ve lumped in the DVD manufacturer with one of the worlds leading fmcg company’s... you’re off my Xmas card list

[500 Miles]

Meeten-5dulx said:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to announce tomorrow a £16.5bn increase in defence spending over the next four years in what is being billed as the biggest programme of investment in Britain's armed forces since the end of the Cold War

Who do we think will be the main beneficiaries?

RR?
BAB?

Hello buddy - not seen you for a while!

They should all benefit as well as BAE, qinetiq, Meggit ... I used to do work for these 3 and BAE was the best operator, the others it was like walking through treacle. Part of the problem was due to the sector they were in but not all of it - they are trying to modernise and improve do their could be efficiency gains from them as well.

[500 Miles]

NumBMW said:

22s said:

Not looking good for Cine...

From FT:

The world’s second largest cinema chain Cineworld is considering slashing rents and permanently closing UK cinemas after lockdown restrictions and a lack of blockbuster films caused business to collapse.

The chain is looking at a “company voluntary arrangement”, an insolvency process used to cut costs, as part of discussions with lenders to gain access to capital to see it through until big movie releases return in the spring, according to three sources close to the negotiations.

The chain hired the restructuring specialists AlixPartners last month to engage in emergency talks with lenders, ahead of a potential breach of its loan covenants in December. It is also negotiating individually with landlords for rent cuts across its 127-site estate.

+10% on that news. At least !

Same situation as RBG - it went down on the leak of the CVA but then increased on the vaccine and then increased again on the CVA being approved.

They will be looking to close some cinemas that were marginal or loss making pre-covid - never waste a good crisis.

Of course, in this market.. anything could happen. Could half... could double.. I’m holding so I hope the market responds well to our favourite overpriced popcorn and sweet seller..

[500 Miles]

Meeten-5dulx said:

Stranger... even saw you posting during the day this week.
This non exec stuff must be boring....

Not had much to offer in way of tips so keeping a lo pro.
That and having to try organise a kitchen refurb.... but know MrsM wants a fancy hob so I got rustle up some readies...
Even reopened my IG account to be able to profit on falls (not that there seems to be many)

A fancy hob? I wouldn’t treat her mate, she’ll only get into the habit of asking for more.. get down B&Q and pick up a Weber bbq... when it’s -5 in Perth and she’s flipping burgers she’ll remember that it doesn’t pay to be needy