Just how far can Covid 19 drive down the markets?

[millen]

Reasons to be cheerful..... https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cheer-up-covid-... (unusually, seems to be outside the paywall).
Must say, I never knew all that about the Russian flu, especially that many of our common colds may be descended from it.

[Flooble]

Sheepshanks said:

Seems quite remarkable that the markets just shrugged off a pretty big wobble at the beginning of the week.

We had a ‘board’ meeting during the week and it was a little disconcerting that our normally super positive MD is expecting everything to implode in the not too distant future. Our order backlog is at insane levels.

I am struggling to combine the two facts there. I assume by insane level you mean the backlog is higher than ever. But the MD is pessimistic? As in "Too good to last"?

[Sheepshanks]

Flooble said:

I am struggling to combine the two facts there. I assume by insane level you mean the backlog is higher than ever. But the MD is pessimistic? As in "Too good to last"?

Kind of - he doesn't think a lot of the backlog will ever ship as it's so far out line with what's normal - customers have over-ordered and ordered through multiple channels. Some will have also ordered similar products from other sources. When push-comes-to-shove it's hard to force customers to take product and even if they do take it, it just slows down future orders.

The trick is not to go mad ramping up our own production - but at the same time customers are going ape as we can't deliver enough so we could lose some of them as they scramble to get product elsewhere. We're trying to look after customers but it's a bit like owning a hotel where everyone who has ever stayed there calls you and wants to stay on the same night!

[ooid]

aparna said:

Lockdown didn't seem to have impacted the overall markets in a overtly negative way? What would you price in?

You seem to forget "Commercial Real Estate" market. It has been pretty difficult for many REITS and the future does not look quite bright, in terms of vacancy and lease expires.

[anonymous-user]

I seriously thought the markets were going to be decimated by COVID and they were at the start for a short while. But they bounced back harder than ever, nobody realised just the lengths the government would go to keep the economy ticking over.

The amount of money they government has printed has been scary and shows no sign of slowing down. I also think negative interest rates are a very strong possibility over the next year or so.

The government are never going to let rich people lose their wealth as lets be honest that will seriously effect them and their chums the most. So they will do anything they can to protect the places rich people invest their money, namely property and the stock market.

Because of the game being so rigged you might as well take advantage of it too so I am now trying to max out the amount I put in my Vanguard Lifestyle 100 account. It is clear even if there is a blip there is so much money sloshing around looking for a home that people will pile in and it will soon recover.