What’s your big gamble? (Volume 2)

[ferrisbueller]

Adam B said:

ferrisbueller said:

egomeister said:

ferrisbueller said:

egomeister said:

ferrisbueller said:

I've been out or I would have topped up earlier this morning. I'll keep an eye on it.

I am intrigued as to how these shorts, circa 9% total, are going to close out. They're going to be climbing over each other to get out.
The US opening date looks like an obvious milestone but who knows.

I doubt they are worried if they believe it's a zero

Are they still betting on zero?

Genuine question.

The short tracker is still showing 8.75% (data will be a few days off reflecting reality)

No idea really, it's not something I've looked into deeply - all I know is it has a massive debt obligation and revenue recovery is still up in the air so I can see a solid argument for failure!

When did the shorts start building their positions?

Obviously fluctuates but they reduced from almost 15% to 3% in February, Start of June they built back up to almost 9% and some were still increasing as the share price was dropping through end July, early August. I've been checking every day but no big changes reported yet.

I was assuming they were betting on failure to meet debt covenants, a second wave lockdown in the US (or anything else that delays US reopening).

Cineworld themselves have delayed Q2 results update until next month, I guess so they can reflect some decent revenues.

If the shorters built back up start of June (£1) they are still sitting on a nice profit, anyone big enough to move the SP (eg large L/S hedge fund) does not usually dump their short in a panic buy. The spike at midday looks very odd so maybe a big US hedgie shorter hit the "take profits" button when they woke up and spat out their morning coffee.

Whilst not a believer in CINE was tempted to buy back when it 35p again, ah well - not buying at these levels, Q2 results will be a car crash

At the time they were building this time around, from about 4% up, it was 60-80. I don't have the access required to see all the data but there were some big transactions towards the end of last week and obviously there have been some goings on today, but per previous, I don't think we've seen the volumes required to put a big dent in those shorts.

Q2 results are obviously going to be bad. I don't understand why people say that like it's a revelation.

[Adam B]

ferrisbueller said:

Q2 results are obviously going to be bad. I don't understand why people say that like it's a revelation.

Everyone knows it and its "priced in", but somehow the market always acts surprised when its confirmed

[ferrisbueller]

Adam B said:

ferrisbueller said:

Q2 results are obviously going to be bad. I don't understand why people say that like it's a revelation.

Everyone knows it and its "priced in", but somehow the market always acts surprised when its confirmed

Numerous companies have now communicated st results and the price has responded positively.

[DRFC1879]

MikeStroud said:

DRFC1879 said:

I've not read all of volume one but I'm a bit surprised to see no mention of STAR since I started reading.

It's the most frustrating holding in my portfolio. Nothing but good news, strong partnerships, great facility with their bank etc. etc. but it's pretty stagnant and I'm slightly offside with my investment at the moment.

I've got plenty of volatile stocks so it's good to hold something less stressful day-to-day but I just can't get my head around its long term lack of action!

Where’s the upside on this? Downwards trending sp for last five years. Revenue flat. Loss every year. What are their usp’s? Why the suggested buy ?

Yeah the last few years have been pretty tough but the outlook is good. Partnership with Bosch on Tetis Container tracking devices, new banking facility secured which pretty much eliminates the possibility of dilution through an offering, new contracts and approvals for airfreight on their Kylos tracking device. All signs of progress from capex-hungry development into mainstream scalable supply.

[anonymous-user]

Yesterday I was at -1%
Today +6%

Best was +40% on 8th June.

[anonymous-user]

DRFC1879 said:

MikeStroud said:

DRFC1879 said:

I've not read all of volume one but I'm a bit surprised to see no mention of STAR since I started reading.

It's the most frustrating holding in my portfolio. Nothing but good news, strong partnerships, great facility with their bank etc. etc. but it's pretty stagnant and I'm slightly offside with my investment at the moment.

I've got plenty of volatile stocks so it's good to hold something less stressful day-to-day but I just can't get my head around its long term lack of action!

Where’s the upside on this? Downwards trending sp for last five years. Revenue flat. Loss every year. What are their usp’s? Why the suggested buy ?

Yeah the last few years have been pretty tough but the outlook is good. Partnership with Bosch on Tetis Container tracking devices, new banking facility secured which pretty much eliminates the possibility of dilution through an offering, new contracts and approvals for airfreight on their Kylos tracking device. All signs of progress from capex-hungry development into mainstream scalable supply.

Thanks. I was thinking I'd add them as another penny share gamble, but sadly they are not on T212.

[petemurphy]

MikeStroud said:

Yesterday I was at -1%
Today +6%

Best was +40% on 8th June.

yesterday i was at my best money wise and i thought i could do no wrong. today its all down and i feel like its all going tits. if i do make any money on all this its going towards therapy

[petemurphy]

ALawson said:

Should have gambled on this, up 9.5% today.

As Pete says TILs not good but still up 26% overall and COST at least headed back up......should tank tomorrow now.

getting very worried about tils - hoping they have a surprise in tonight conference. can you remember when they said accustem would be the last time they mentioned it?

[ferrisbueller]

petemurphy said:

MikeStroud said:

Yesterday I was at -1%
Today +6%

Best was +40% on 8th June.

yesterday i was at my best money wise and i thought i could do no wrong. today its all down and i feel like its all going tits. if i do make any money on all this its going towards therapy

Weren't you 5x up on a big lump in SNG? Have you spent it?!

[i4got]

Two great days. Portfolio up 7.6% yesterday and 4.7% today. Mostly CINE but notable mentions go to 4D, NEX, CPI, IBST and HEMO.

[Chris Type R]

i4got said:

Two great days. Portfolio up 7.6% yesterday and 4.7% today. Mostly CINE but notable mentions go to 4D, NEX, CPI, IBST and HEMO.

That's pretty good going.

[Timja]

Sold some AA at 39.5p and Restaurant Group At 61p today while they were up. FOMO meant I kept 2/3 of them but wanted to bank some profits.

[petemurphy]

ferrisbueller said:

Weren't you 5x up on a big lump in SNG? Have you spent it?!

yeah still have it in sng but small percentages make a difference now so 3% down on sng means big cash movement so doesnt take much for me to go peak money or lose a lot. have a few different things and they peaked yesterday but all down today. so yes still good but as its not as good as yesterday then woe is me

[Aiminghigh123]

Adam B said:

decent day overall - up 2%

TILS only negative although that ended up only 1% down

MNZS finally woke up

Financials I hold recovering a little but they are firmly in LT bucket (AXA, BNP, BNC)

HEMO doing well for me

Oh bugger!!! I forgot about Menzies. I was going to stick £1.5k in at 120 and sell at 130. I have traded in that range loads in the past then forgot.

[Skyedriver]

SleepyOwl said:

Anyone else in Amigo?

yup.

[Fckitdriveon]

Skyedriver said:

yup.

yup.......well down.......either I sell at a loss or hold longer term....cant decide.

[Aiminghigh123]

Skyedriver said:

SleepyOwl said:

Anyone else in Amigo?

yup.

I’m in as well 10% down but I’m holding unless it hits 20 which would be a good pay day as it’s one of my larger holdings.

[SimonTheSailor]

I'm in on Amigo too, missed the last spike. Talk of the price shifting but nothing is happening. Might take a little while while they sort out the compensation claims and get lending again.

[petemurphy]

petemurphy said:

getting very worried about tils - hoping they have a surprise in tonight conference. can you remember when they said accustem would be the last time they mentioned it?

conference doesnt seem to have had any new news and accumstem still a while off it may not be pretty tomorrow. but then i thought that last time and it went up to 300. fingers crossed. might just file them away as they do tend to just drop news anytime.

[journeymanpro]

Weird end for the Dow, ominous for tomorrow.