Bottled out - taken my gains

[sidicks]

PhilboSE said:

What did CAPE tell you just before the banking crisis in 2008 and Greek debt problem in 2013?

I think that his point was that genuine investors (as opposed to amateur speculators) use a range of metrics to assess valuations and manage exposures, not just one.

[PhilboSE]

sidicks said:

PhilboSE said:

What did CAPE tell you just before the banking crisis in 2008 and Greek debt problem in 2013?

I think that his point was that genuine investors (as opposed to amateur speculators) use a range of metrics to assess valuations and manage exposures, not just one.

I'd like to think of myself as an amateur investor, rather than a speculator. Although seeing as I do it for a living (my own), perhaps that makes me a professional investor...

In any event, I'm not disregarding metrics on investment strategies. However what a simple metric can't help you predict is a sudden change in market sentiments. How many investors were told to get out of the markets just before the most recent devaluations? In the very early days post Lehmann I'd seen some big losses and wanted to bail. My IFA told me that would be selling low and a classic "amateur speculator" mistake - I stayed in the markets and saw my losses triple. When it's your own loss it makes it a lot more personal compared with when you're investing someone else's money!

Part of what I'm saying is that there's always a disjunct between the inherent value of equities, and market sentiment. Part of the issue is that markets are so volatile these days, probably driven by automated trading algorithms. We often see dips of 1.5% in a day followed by a gain of another 1.5% almost the next day. I wonder what actually changed in the underlying nature of the businesses in those 24 hours - answer: nothing.

However when the corrections come, they come hard and fast it seems. I've been investing for nearly 30 years, all but the last couple of years following the advice of "professionals", sometimes against my better instincts. Not once have I ever been advised to get out of the markets, and yet I've lived (and lost significant money) through many market crashes.

[Croutons]

You haven't mentioned what you were invested in?

I wasn't going to be so crass as to ask how much (which you have confirmed anyway) was in to get any return, but I'd still be interested to know where you had it.

FWIW, many of the funds touted in the Finance Forum have done +10-15% in the last 6 months (depending on your exact timing of course), eg Lindsell Train, Fundsmith etc, but I wondered how many eggs you split that sort of sum in to and if individual shares or funds.

[PhilboSE]

Croutons said:

You haven't mentioned what you were invested in?

I wasn't going to be so crass as to ask how much (which you have confirmed anyway) was in to get any return, but I'd still be interested to know where you had it.

FWIW, many of the funds touted in the Finance Forum have done +10-15% in the last 6 months (depending on your exact timing of course), eg Lindsell Train, Fundsmith etc, but I wondered how many eggs you split that sort of sum in to and if individual shares or funds.

My OP tried to make the thread about market sentiment rather than the numbers, but the thread was getting derailed into debate about the size and vehicles so I thought it best to knock that on the head.

All fairly mainstream, I'm not looking for spectacular growth. Reasonably evenly spread across the following. I rebalanced the portfolio in January this year so they all started from the same point more or less. They were all up when I sold apart from India which was down 16%.

Fundsmith Equity I
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders A
JPM Europe Dynamic (ex UK) C
Artemis Income (Class I)
Jupiter Income (Class Z)
Marlborough Multi Cap Income (Class P)
Threadneedle UK Equity Income (Class Z)
CF Lindsell Train UK Equity (Class D)
Franklin UK Mid Cap A
Rathbone Income (Class S)
River & Mercantile UK Dynamic Equity A
TM Sanditon UK F
Lindsell Train Global Equity (Class D)
Newton Global Income (Class U)
Baring Europe Select I
FP Crux European Special Situations I
Threadneedle European Select Z
TM Sanditon Europe F
JPM Emerging Markets B
Jupiter Asian Income I
Legg Mason IF Royce US Smaller Companies (X)
Aberdeen Latin American Equity (Class I)
Jupiter India (Class X)
Schroder Small Cap Discovery (Class Z)
Man GLG Japan CoreAlpha (Professional)
Schroder Tokyo (H)

[sidicks]

PhilboSE said:

My OP tried to make the thread about market sentiment rather than the numbers, but the thread was getting derailed into debate about the size and vehicles so I thought it best to knock that on the head.

All fairly mainstream, I'm not looking for spectacular growth. Reasonably evenly spread across the following. I rebalanced the portfolio in January this year so they all started from the same point more or less. They were all up when I sold apart from India which was down 16%.

Fundsmith Equity I
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders A
JPM Europe Dynamic (ex UK) C
Artemis Income (Class I)
Jupiter Income (Class Z)
Marlborough Multi Cap Income (Class P)
Threadneedle UK Equity Income (Class Z)
CF Lindsell Train UK Equity (Class D)
Franklin UK Mid Cap A
Rathbone Income (Class S)
River & Mercantile UK Dynamic Equity A
TM Sanditon UK F
Lindsell Train Global Equity (Class D)
Newton Global Income (Class U)
Baring Europe Select I
FP Crux European Special Situations I
Threadneedle European Select Z
TM Sanditon Europe F
JPM Emerging Markets B
Jupiter Asian Income I
Legg Mason IF Royce US Smaller Companies (X)
Aberdeen Latin American Equity (Class I)
Jupiter India (Class X)
Schroder Small Cap Discovery (Class Z)
Man GLG Japan CoreAlpha (Professional)
Schroder Tokyo (H)

That’s an awful lot of different funds, with potentially significant overlap in some areas.
Aren’t you worried about paying multiple managers for active outperformance where there is a significant risk that this active positions could be offsetting each other?

[p1stonhead]

sidicks said:

PhilboSE said:

My OP tried to make the thread about market sentiment rather than the numbers, but the thread was getting derailed into debate about the size and vehicles so I thought it best to knock that on the head.

All fairly mainstream, I'm not looking for spectacular growth. Reasonably evenly spread across the following. I rebalanced the portfolio in January this year so they all started from the same point more or less. They were all up when I sold apart from India which was down 16%.

Fundsmith Equity I
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders A
JPM Europe Dynamic (ex UK) C
Artemis Income (Class I)
Jupiter Income (Class Z)
Marlborough Multi Cap Income (Class P)
Threadneedle UK Equity Income (Class Z)
CF Lindsell Train UK Equity (Class D)
Franklin UK Mid Cap A
Rathbone Income (Class S)
River & Mercantile UK Dynamic Equity A
TM Sanditon UK F
Lindsell Train Global Equity (Class D)
Newton Global Income (Class U)
Baring Europe Select I
FP Crux European Special Situations I
Threadneedle European Select Z
TM Sanditon Europe F
JPM Emerging Markets B
Jupiter Asian Income I
Legg Mason IF Royce US Smaller Companies (X)
Aberdeen Latin American Equity (Class I)
Jupiter India (Class X)
Schroder Small Cap Discovery (Class Z)
Man GLG Japan CoreAlpha (Professional)
Schroder Tokyo (H)

That’s an awful lot of different funds, with potentially significant overlap in some areas.
Aren’t you worried about paying multiple managers for active outperformance where there is a significant risk that this active positions could be offsetting each other?

+1 im confused as to the thought behind this too!

[DoubleSix]

p1stonhead said:

sidicks said:

PhilboSE said:

My OP tried to make the thread about market sentiment rather than the numbers, but the thread was getting derailed into debate about the size and vehicles so I thought it best to knock that on the head.

All fairly mainstream, I'm not looking for spectacular growth. Reasonably evenly spread across the following. I rebalanced the portfolio in January this year so they all started from the same point more or less. They were all up when I sold apart from India which was down 16%.

Fundsmith Equity I
Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Leaders A
JPM Europe Dynamic (ex UK) C
Artemis Income (Class I)
Jupiter Income (Class Z)
Marlborough Multi Cap Income (Class P)
Threadneedle UK Equity Income (Class Z)
CF Lindsell Train UK Equity (Class D)
Franklin UK Mid Cap A
Rathbone Income (Class S)
River & Mercantile UK Dynamic Equity A
TM Sanditon UK F
Lindsell Train Global Equity (Class D)
Newton Global Income (Class U)
Baring Europe Select I
FP Crux European Special Situations I
Threadneedle European Select Z
TM Sanditon Europe F
JPM Emerging Markets B
Jupiter Asian Income I
Legg Mason IF Royce US Smaller Companies (X)
Aberdeen Latin American Equity (Class I)
Jupiter India (Class X)
Schroder Small Cap Discovery (Class Z)
Man GLG Japan CoreAlpha (Professional)
Schroder Tokyo (H)

That’s an awful lot of different funds, with potentially significant overlap in some areas.
Aren’t you worried about paying multiple managers for active outperformance where there is a significant risk that this active positions could be offsetting each other?

+1 im confused as to the thought behind this too!

Perhaps the sort of portfolio you might expect to see where someone has had advice for 28 years, then fired the adviser (because it's easy peasy right?) and begun adding funds over the last two years without making the appropriate disposals. Before moving to cash on gut feel.

[sidicks]

DoubleSix said:

Perhaps the sort of portfolio you might expect to see where someone has had advice for 28 years, then fired the adviser (because it's easy peasy right?) and begun adding funds over the last two years without making the appropriate disposals. Before moving to cash on gut feel.

[bitchstewie]

zubzob said:

Do you happen to know how the portfolio performed against a benchmark such as vanguard global tracker?

Not trying to be a smartass, genuinly curious how it did.

I wonder once you have that much money to invest whether there's a "fear" of sticking six figures into a single fund or holding?

[PhilboSE]

sidicks said:

That’s an awful lot of different funds, with potentially significant overlap in some areas.

I don't know which sectors are going to see growth, so I divided the pot amongst US, UK, Euro and Asia based funds (not equal amounts - I put more into the US, which worked out well).

I also don't know which fund managers are going to be better than others going forwards, so I split each main sector pot amongst some highly rated funds in those sectors.

This explains the overlap, which I'm happy with. Unless anyone can tell me which fund in a sector is going to perform best in the future, I'll spread the risk.

sidicks said:

Aren’t you worried about paying multiple managers for active outperformance where there is a significant risk that this active positions could be offsetting each other?

Investing in a single fund in each sector has the risk that the fund manager has a bad year...each manager is investing in equities which they think will do well, hopefully across the spread they get it more right than wrong,

[PhilboSE]

DoubleSix said:

Perhaps the sort of portfolio you might expect to see where someone has had advice for 28 years, then fired the adviser (because it's easy peasy right?) and begun adding funds over the last two years without making the appropriate disposals. Before moving to cash on gut feel.

Hoho.

You want to know what my last IFA had me in? £2M in SL Gars, the biggest dogst fund ever. A global absolute return fund targetting cash+5% annually, so over the last 3 years it should be up at least 15% right? So what is it doing 5% down over 3 years (not counting the tax also paid on dividends), when it should be growing in "all market conditions"? These highly paid active fund managers with all their clever strategies have been getting it mostly wrong for the last 3 years. My IFA said (2 years ago) "I have faith, stay in, I believe in this fund"!

I've been though 2 IFAs since I've been investing. Under their advice, my portfolio miserably underperformed. If there was any thought process behind their strategies, they could never explain it. Since "going solo", I've dramatically outperformed their returns, in similar market conditions.

[Heres Johnny]

DoubleSix said:

p1stonhead said:

sidicks said:

PhilboSE said:

My OP tried to make the thread about market sentiment rather than the numbers, but the thread was getting derailed into debate about the size and vehicles so I thought it best to knock that on the head.

All fairly mainstream, I'm not looking for spectacular growth. Reasonably evenly spread across the following. I rebalanced the portfolio in January this year so they all started from the same point more or less. They were all up when I sold apart from India which was down 16%.

[list]

That’s an awful lot of different funds, with potentially significant overlap in some areas.
Aren’t you worried about paying multiple managers for active outperformance where there is a significant risk that this active positions could be offsetting each other?

+1 im confused as to the thought behind this too!

Perhaps the sort of portfolio you might expect to see where someone has had advice for 28 years, then fired the adviser (because it's easy peasy right?) and begun adding funds over the last two years without making the appropriate disposals. Before moving to cash on gut feel.

Not massively different to mine - I've a simple technique - pick a market I'm interested in, find a fund that has good 1 3 and 5 year returns (ie steady but healthy trend over time) and buy. Pick a sell strategy if you're twitchy or be prepared to sit any issues out. Invest no more than 5% in any one fund - you'll end up with 20 odd funds.

Add in a sprinkling of direct shares rather than trusts where you fancy that kind of trade, generally these have done worse for me.

Edited by Heres Johnny on Tuesday 24th July 05:59

[xeny]

Given the no of funds and their breadth, why not throw it all in VWRL and save wear and tear on brain cells?

It'd be a very financially sensible (albeit potentially mentally painful) comparison to see if you're getting any Alpha out of this approach, or simply paying a bunch of fees. ALAI in particular, ugh.

[MisterJD]

PhilboSE said:

... I've been though 2 IFAs since I've been investing. Under their advice, my portfolio miserably underperformed. If there was any thought process behind their strategies, they could never explain it. Since "going solo", I've dramatically outperformed their returns, in similar market conditions.

Why would you take your investment advice from IFAs and not an investment professional?

[Heres Johnny]

xeny said:

Given the no of funds and their breadth, why not throw it all in VWRL and save wear and tear on brain cells?

It'd be a very financially sensible (albeit potentially mentally painful) comparison to see if you're getting any Alpha out of this approach, or simply paying a bunch of fees. ALAI in particular, ugh.

Eggs and baskets although that accepts there could be overlap between the funds.

[Ilovejapcrap]

As a meagre blue collar working I have not the funds or the knowledge to be involved with this and basically have no fking idea what you lot are talking about, I know what an ISA is and that’s my lot.

Wish I did mind seems very interesting. I’d assume that as well as watching investments etc the other issue is watching changing in TAX etc on how you can take your profit ?

[Shnozz]

Rather than the usual b1tchfight that seems to come with every PH thread these days, any more thoughts from those wiser/in the industry on how the market is looking at the minute? I've listed the reasons why I see trouble imminently but the markets don't seem to show any sign of concern at the minute and futures markets all look like they are not anticipating much change, if any at all.

Election? Brexit? House price wobbles? All on the horizon but seems to just be business as normal.

[p1stonhead]

Ilovejapcrap said:

As a meagre blue collar working I have not the funds or the knowledge to be involved with this and basically have no fking idea what you lot are talking about, I know what an ISA is and that’s my lot.

Wish I did mind seems very interesting. I’d assume that as well as watching investments etc the other issue is watching changing in TAX etc on how you can take your profit ?

Start reading. Never too old to get into it. Presumably your money is sitting in a cash ISA? If so you will almost certainly be losing purchasing power at such low interest rates.

[DoubleSix]

MisterJD said:

Why would you take your investment advice from IFAs and not an investment professional?

Some IFAs are also qualified investment managers, not many of us though!

I agree with your sentiment however.

[bitchstewie]

Shnozz said:

Election? Brexit? House price wobbles? All on the horizon but seems to just be business as normal.

I watched 5% (I think) drop off my Nike shares the second Federer walked out on Centre Court at Wimbledon wearing Uni-Qlo.

I'm very new to this but I have one piece of wisdom, markets are weird things