Your questions answered Vol 2 - IM Private Clients
Discussion
A good Sunday morning to all!
I thought I would wade in on a few points...
1) Direct Debits
This will be checked internally first thing Monday morning. Santander having problems is one thing, but if Barclacy and Natwest are not coming though either logic dictates it is either an issue our end, or an issue with the DD system across the board. The most likely of these is obviously our end!
2) Managing shares into cash in turbulant times and market falls:
A wonderful idea in principle that is only hampered by reality! John - you are completely correct, selling down one shareholdding to replace it with another is never a light move and something that therefore does not happen with out excellent reason. Cash is indeed an inanimate object in comp[arison, but this is the problem. You have moved out of markets based upon one timing and have to get it exactly right when moving back in (as has been said).
So shares to shares are apple to apples, shares to cash and cash back to shares are apples and oranges (and oranges and apples again!).
We don't think we (P1) have the ability to pull this off at the same time for multiple investors in the same holdings with different requirements. Of course (as has been said) within our ISA and pension wrappers we offer you the facility to do this yourselves if you want to have a go. You could indeed get lucky, but if you make this part of your ongoing investment management mandate luck will not always be on your side I am afraid, as history has proved every time.
Please don't get me wrong, if the US declares war on Russia we will be in a bunker with Will at P1 moving heaven and earth regardless of ongoing mandate principles, but in times like these such a reaction would be highly unprofessional.
As I have said before, it hurts all of us (myself very much included on a personal, not just professional, level), but look at history for the correct approach through and out.
For context, if you had invested £100,000 in the S&P 500 on 1st January 2002, it would have been worth £616,850 if you had simply stayed put though to 31st December 2021.
By contrast, had you kept going in and out and missed the market’s 10 best days during that time, it would have 'only' been worth £282,600.
So staying put would have given you more than double the overall return in this case.
Then there is also the Fidelity Paradox (my term, not theirs!):
Fidelity apparently did an internal review of the performance of its customers accros the globe over the ten years between 2003 to 2013 and found that the best returns were from its customers who were either dead or inactive. These are customers who either died and had their assets frozen, or forgot about their assets.
For anyone interested, the next highest performers were those invested in energy, healthcare, and small-cap portfolios, but that is another story...
3) The IM British GT Championship
Thanks all for the positive feedback and great photos from Snetterton. Next on the calendar is Spa-Francorchamps and I believe a road trip to Belgium is on the cards for some of those who were luckly enough to get free VIP passes.
On that note, the IM Racing watch goes into production on Monday with order dues to be delivered within the next 8 weeks. This little side project of mine probably highlights the difficulties of market timing as only I could manage to lauch a zero financial margin and completely unnecessary trinket (albeit it a bloody lovely one!) at a time when we are all suffering from investment losses, but there you go!
BTW, anyone thinking it is expensive (which it is a bit!) just add up the cost of the VIP track day experience at Silverstone that comes with each one and then deduct from the actual price. Even Simpo would then have to conceed the value!!!*
Cheers
Julian
*Probably not
I thought I would wade in on a few points...
1) Direct Debits
This will be checked internally first thing Monday morning. Santander having problems is one thing, but if Barclacy and Natwest are not coming though either logic dictates it is either an issue our end, or an issue with the DD system across the board. The most likely of these is obviously our end!
2) Managing shares into cash in turbulant times and market falls:
A wonderful idea in principle that is only hampered by reality! John - you are completely correct, selling down one shareholdding to replace it with another is never a light move and something that therefore does not happen with out excellent reason. Cash is indeed an inanimate object in comp[arison, but this is the problem. You have moved out of markets based upon one timing and have to get it exactly right when moving back in (as has been said).
So shares to shares are apple to apples, shares to cash and cash back to shares are apples and oranges (and oranges and apples again!).
We don't think we (P1) have the ability to pull this off at the same time for multiple investors in the same holdings with different requirements. Of course (as has been said) within our ISA and pension wrappers we offer you the facility to do this yourselves if you want to have a go. You could indeed get lucky, but if you make this part of your ongoing investment management mandate luck will not always be on your side I am afraid, as history has proved every time.
Please don't get me wrong, if the US declares war on Russia we will be in a bunker with Will at P1 moving heaven and earth regardless of ongoing mandate principles, but in times like these such a reaction would be highly unprofessional.
As I have said before, it hurts all of us (myself very much included on a personal, not just professional, level), but look at history for the correct approach through and out.
For context, if you had invested £100,000 in the S&P 500 on 1st January 2002, it would have been worth £616,850 if you had simply stayed put though to 31st December 2021.
By contrast, had you kept going in and out and missed the market’s 10 best days during that time, it would have 'only' been worth £282,600.
So staying put would have given you more than double the overall return in this case.
Then there is also the Fidelity Paradox (my term, not theirs!):
Fidelity apparently did an internal review of the performance of its customers accros the globe over the ten years between 2003 to 2013 and found that the best returns were from its customers who were either dead or inactive. These are customers who either died and had their assets frozen, or forgot about their assets.
For anyone interested, the next highest performers were those invested in energy, healthcare, and small-cap portfolios, but that is another story...
3) The IM British GT Championship
Thanks all for the positive feedback and great photos from Snetterton. Next on the calendar is Spa-Francorchamps and I believe a road trip to Belgium is on the cards for some of those who were luckly enough to get free VIP passes.
On that note, the IM Racing watch goes into production on Monday with order dues to be delivered within the next 8 weeks. This little side project of mine probably highlights the difficulties of market timing as only I could manage to lauch a zero financial margin and completely unnecessary trinket (albeit it a bloody lovely one!) at a time when we are all suffering from investment losses, but there you go!
BTW, anyone thinking it is expensive (which it is a bit!) just add up the cost of the VIP track day experience at Silverstone that comes with each one and then deduct from the actual price. Even Simpo would then have to conceed the value!!!*
Cheers
Julian
*Probably not
Morning Julian and welcome back
(Not that it isn't a fine watch, I just have one I like already.)
BTW, for those watching, Julian and I used to have excellent chats about the state of the world, and generally keep global events on track. Now that he's emigrated we haven't been able to keep the world running true for a while and you can see what happens - the whole bloody world goes tits up!
So, we need investments that will thrive in high inflation, weak GBP and war. Adam, can you crank something out by Friday?
JulianPH said:
A good Sunday morning to all!
I thought I would wade in on a few points...
2) Managing shares into cash in turbulant times and market falls:
A wonderful idea in principle that is only hampered by reality! John - you are completely correct, selling down one shareholdding to replace it with another is never a light move and something that therefore does not happen with out excellent reason. Cash is indeed an inanimate object in comp[arison, but this is the problem. You have moved out of markets based upon one timing and have to get it exactly right when moving back in (as has been said).
What do you make of my idea that if you buy back for less than you sold, you're ahead? (just as if you sell for more than you bought you're ahead). So there's no need to 'guess the bottom' or 'guess the top', simply compare the numbers before moving...I thought I would wade in on a few points...
2) Managing shares into cash in turbulant times and market falls:
A wonderful idea in principle that is only hampered by reality! John - you are completely correct, selling down one shareholdding to replace it with another is never a light move and something that therefore does not happen with out excellent reason. Cash is indeed an inanimate object in comp[arison, but this is the problem. You have moved out of markets based upon one timing and have to get it exactly right when moving back in (as has been said).
JulianPH said:
We don't think we (P1) have the ability to pull this off at the same time for multiple investors in the same holdings with different requirements.
That's fair enough.JulianPH said:
Fidelity apparently did an internal review of the performance of its customers accros the globe over the ten years between 2003 to 2013 and found that the best returns were from its customers who were either dead or inactive. These are customers who either died and had their assets frozen, or forgot about their assets.
Some of that may be because dead people have no need to draw cash... In the living world, investments are pretty pointless if you can't at some time spend some of them, and taking cash (either to live on or buy toys) reduces performance.JulianPH said:
BTW, anyone thinking it is expensive (which it is a bit!) just add up the cost of the VIP track day experience at Silverstone that comes with each one and then deduct from the actual price. Even Simpo would then have to conceed the value!!!*
If I fancied a VIP track day at Silverstone I'd accept the included watch, sell it for 10% off the list price and trouser £900 (Not that it isn't a fine watch, I just have one I like already.)BTW, for those watching, Julian and I used to have excellent chats about the state of the world, and generally keep global events on track. Now that he's emigrated we haven't been able to keep the world running true for a while and you can see what happens - the whole bloody world goes tits up!
So, we need investments that will thrive in high inflation, weak GBP and war. Adam, can you crank something out by Friday?
Hi again
Regarding the Direct Debits, I have just received the below:
Cheers
Julian
Regarding the Direct Debits, I have just received the below:
IMTowers said:
We had an issue with the DD collection for the 1st, but this was swiftly corrected.
We expect DDs to debit on the 5th this month, allowing the normal allocation to accounts on 7th July. So hopefully, no net delay.
I’ve added a notice on the client site to flag this info (which will be removed once the collection is successfully allocated).
Thanks, Dan
So I've no idea what the issue was, but it has been fixed now!We expect DDs to debit on the 5th this month, allowing the normal allocation to accounts on 7th July. So hopefully, no net delay.
I’ve added a notice on the client site to flag this info (which will be removed once the collection is successfully allocated).
Thanks, Dan
Cheers
Julian
Simpo Two said:
Morning Julian and welcome back
Cheers John, I have been keeping up with comments and popping in and out with my own, but it is always good to be back on a more regular basis. Simpo Two said:
What do you make of my idea that if you buy back for less than you sold, you're ahead? (just as if you sell for more than you bought you're ahead). So there's no need to 'guess the bottom' or 'guess the top', simply compare the numbers before moving...
Cracking! The only problem I can see is that in order to buy back for less than you sold, you would have had to have known exactly when to sell in the first place and been 100% confident that it would then fall at this point, before you could do so...We've not yet mangaged to work out how to compare these numbers before doing so!
Simpo Two said:
Some of that may be because dead people have no need to draw cash... In the living world, investments are pretty pointless if you can't at some time spend some of them, and taking cash (either to live on or buy toys) reduces performance.
Not really, it is a measure of underlying investment performance and does not take into account withdrawals (whether these happen or not).Simpo Two said:
If I fancied a VIP track day at Silverstone I'd accept the included watch, sell it for 10% off the list price and trouser £900 (Not that it isn't a fine watch, I just have one I like already.)
You could well be onto something, unless purchasers placed the value of the VIP track day at Silverstone as being worth more than 100 quid! (Not that it isn't a fine watch, I just have one I like already.)Simpo Two said:
BTW, for those watching, Julian and I used to have excellent chats about the state of the world, and generally keep global events on track. Now that he's emigrated we haven't been able to keep the world running true for a while and you can see what happens - the whole bloody world goes tits up!
So, we need investments that will thrive in high inflation, weak GBP and war. Adam, can you crank something out by Friday?
We certainly did and I look forward to returning to this as my health continues to recover fully!So, we need investments that will thrive in high inflation, weak GBP and war. Adam, can you crank something out by Friday?
That will be a combination of shares in companies providing non-cyclical goods, utilities, healthcare and pharma. Fortunately IM offers all of this in PHE
On another footing, property, gold and commodities, ideally priced in Dollars or Euros, can also be good bets.
Cheers
Julian
Another important point in the ‘sell buy hold cash’ thing is varying sectors swizzle around in price differently.
Ie, tech/cyclical/value, they all flapped around from 2021 to now. Even commodities are now falling.
The ‘dip’ is now 18 months in, still going. But commodities only just started.
You’d have to know what to sell and when all the way down, otherwise you’d have sold out of energy to then miss the rises.
Yes you can rotate around, but timing each step is hard.
Then buying back in. All the same considerations. Timing all these steps accurately and consistently?
It genuinely is easier to just average buy in and then you’ll be happy to ride the dips knowing the base investments are solid.
Oooor, like me, you want to buy specific units cheap, so PHT, PHE, etc, and so are happy to punt for a lower buy price by sitting a chunk in cash.
Ooor if you suddenly got a lump sum but feel like a seeming peak in prices isn’t a good point to start averaging in.
The biggest difficulty I think with this strategy is doing it within funds where you might sell out “good” stuff or end up retaining “bad” stuff.
If you’re doing this all DIY then fine.
But to expect a provider to do all this for you on a per-customer risk considered basis, wouldn’t be cheap.
And history shows it just doesn’t work out over the long haul.
Ie, tech/cyclical/value, they all flapped around from 2021 to now. Even commodities are now falling.
The ‘dip’ is now 18 months in, still going. But commodities only just started.
You’d have to know what to sell and when all the way down, otherwise you’d have sold out of energy to then miss the rises.
Yes you can rotate around, but timing each step is hard.
Then buying back in. All the same considerations. Timing all these steps accurately and consistently?
It genuinely is easier to just average buy in and then you’ll be happy to ride the dips knowing the base investments are solid.
Oooor, like me, you want to buy specific units cheap, so PHT, PHE, etc, and so are happy to punt for a lower buy price by sitting a chunk in cash.
Ooor if you suddenly got a lump sum but feel like a seeming peak in prices isn’t a good point to start averaging in.
The biggest difficulty I think with this strategy is doing it within funds where you might sell out “good” stuff or end up retaining “bad” stuff.
If you’re doing this all DIY then fine.
But to expect a provider to do all this for you on a per-customer risk considered basis, wouldn’t be cheap.
And history shows it just doesn’t work out over the long haul.
JulianPH said:
On that note, the IM Racing watch goes into production on Monday with order dues to be delivered within the next 8 weeks. ….
BTW, anyone thinking it is expensive (which it is a bit!) just add up the cost of the VIP track day experience at Silverstone that comes with each one and then deduct from the actual price. Even Simpo would then have to conceed the value!!!*
That’s exactly the logic I used to get the man maths to work (and I’ve been wanting a new watch for a while). When is this track day/when will we get further info? Thanks.BTW, anyone thinking it is expensive (which it is a bit!) just add up the cost of the VIP track day experience at Silverstone that comes with each one and then deduct from the actual price. Even Simpo would then have to conceed the value!!!*
Steve H said:
Hi Jerry
We are working out details on the trackday at the moment. The broad plan is to get you out driving on the Silverstone GP track in something tasty with an instructor and I’ll be there giving passenger rides in the IM Racing Cayman for anyone daft enough to want one
.
Thank you. I’m looking forward to it.We are working out details on the trackday at the moment. The broad plan is to get you out driving on the Silverstone GP track in something tasty with an instructor and I’ll be there giving passenger rides in the IM Racing Cayman for anyone daft enough to want one
.JulianPH said:
Simpo Two said:
Some of that may be because dead people have no need to draw cash... In the living world, investments are pretty pointless if you can't at some time spend some of them, and taking cash (either to live on or buy toys) reduces performance.
Not really, it is a measure of underlying investment performance and does not take into account withdrawals (whether these happen or not).Hi Julian
Thanks for the recent posts. I hope Im asking the right question. We are getting closer to having funds in our hot sticky hands and I am having a play on Timeline and set up our plan for world domination - looking at 99% success rate so far with a pessimistic outlook. (as well as 2 other spreadsheets/calcs)
Timeline has an option I think for live tracking and the example give lists vanguard whatever with a reference code. Its that reference code that is fed into Timeline.
Does IM use a reference code for each of its offerings ie PHT and PHE , Index 100 etc?
Thanks for the recent posts. I hope Im asking the right question. We are getting closer to having funds in our hot sticky hands and I am having a play on Timeline and set up our plan for world domination - looking at 99% success rate so far with a pessimistic outlook. (as well as 2 other spreadsheets/calcs)
Timeline has an option I think for live tracking and the example give lists vanguard whatever with a reference code. Its that reference code that is fed into Timeline.
Does IM use a reference code for each of its offerings ie PHT and PHE , Index 100 etc?
superlightr said:
Hi Julian
Thanks for the recent posts. I hope Im asking the right question. We are getting closer to having funds in our hot sticky hands and I am having a play on Timeline and set up our plan for world domination - looking at 99% success rate so far with a pessimistic outlook. (as well as 2 other spreadsheets/calcs)
Timeline has an option I think for live tracking and the example give lists vanguard whatever with a reference code. Its that reference code that is fed into Timeline.
Does IM use a reference code for each of its offerings ie PHT and PHE , Index 100 etc?
Hi SL, I would hazard a guess that an App can link some of the Vanguard Funds because they are exchange traded. IM products are not. Regards AdamThanks for the recent posts. I hope Im asking the right question. We are getting closer to having funds in our hot sticky hands and I am having a play on Timeline and set up our plan for world domination - looking at 99% success rate so far with a pessimistic outlook. (as well as 2 other spreadsheets/calcs)
Timeline has an option I think for live tracking and the example give lists vanguard whatever with a reference code. Its that reference code that is fed into Timeline.
Does IM use a reference code for each of its offerings ie PHT and PHE , Index 100 etc?
superlightr said:
Hi Julian
Thanks for the recent posts. I hope Im asking the right question. We are getting closer to having funds in our hot sticky hands and I am having a play on Timeline and set up our plan for world domination - looking at 99% success rate so far with a pessimistic outlook. (as well as 2 other spreadsheets/calcs)
Timeline has an option I think for live tracking and the example give lists vanguard whatever with a reference code. Its that reference code that is fed into Timeline.
Does IM use a reference code for each of its offerings ie PHT and PHE , Index 100 etc?
Hi James, no problem!Thanks for the recent posts. I hope Im asking the right question. We are getting closer to having funds in our hot sticky hands and I am having a play on Timeline and set up our plan for world domination - looking at 99% success rate so far with a pessimistic outlook. (as well as 2 other spreadsheets/calcs)
Timeline has an option I think for live tracking and the example give lists vanguard whatever with a reference code. Its that reference code that is fed into Timeline.
Does IM use a reference code for each of its offerings ie PHT and PHE , Index 100 etc?
Adam is right, funds have SEDOL numbers and portfolios do not. We have for some time been discussing moving to OEICs, but that is of no help in this right now.
I would have a word with Nik and see if there is something he can do to assist you.
Cheers
Julian
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