Brexit uncertainty and financial worries

Brexit uncertainty and financial worries

Author
Discussion

DonkeyApple

55,740 posts

170 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
alabbasi said:
I suspect that many of those that voted leave now understand that they were lied to by self serving politicians, not able to deliver anything that they promised.

But for the type of guy that voted 3 years ago on the premise of a lie, yet is still thinking that everything is going to be okay today. Seriously? Even though ministers are resigning or throwing away their careers because they don't want their name on this decision.

I'm going to suggest that they're probably not deep thinkers. It's qualified as I know a bunch of these people, They don't really have their own thoughts on the subject. You can look at their social media timeline which it's full of meme's, probably created someone in Macedonia.


Edited by alabbasi on Sunday 8th September 17:09
A more intelligent way to look at the same scenario is that one way or another, those who voted Leave are not financially exposed in the same way as those desperate to remain?

It’s a very foolish stance to assume that everyone who voted to leave is a fool when they clearly aren’t and it is so clear that there are as many fools on both sides.

C_Steve

43 posts

57 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
alabbasi said:
Here are lots of googled headlines which don’t actually support what I claimed...
So to be clear, no banks have threatened to pull out of the Uk?

Can I assume you’ve very little knowledge of financial services and your only knowledge is based on reading a few headlines via Google?

Edited by C_Steve on Sunday 8th September 20:51

alabbasi

2,518 posts

88 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
C_Steve said:
So to be clear, no banks have threatened to pull out if the Uk?

Can I assume you’ve very little knowledge of financial services and your only knowledge is based on reading a few headlines via Google?
Now you're being pedantic. The damage is obvious

DonkeyApple

55,740 posts

170 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
alabbasi said:
Honda and Nissan both issued Brexit warnings and as the UK acts as the clearing house for the rest of Europe, quite a few.

See this article from Reuters regarding banking

ASSOCIATION OF FOREIGN BANKS IN GERMANY
Germany’s association of foreign banks expects about 20 banks to expand their presence in Germany as a result of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.

BANK OF AMERICA CORP
Bank of America (BAC.N) is merging its London-based subsidiary with its Dublin-based Irish entity, which will become its main EU base.

Bank of America finished moving its banking and markets operations in Europe to a new base in Dublin from London, the bank said in December, after it received all necessary regulatory and court approvals.

Up to 400 jobs in Bank of America’s markets, trading, sales and fixed income teams would move from London to the EU and to Paris in particular, in a first wave of transfers next year.

The bank has spent $300 million to $400 million getting ready for a potential hard Brexit, Bloomberg reported in November.

BARCLAYS
Barclays (BARC.L) announced plans to shift up to 200 roles to the continent as part of its Brexit planning. In July it began switching 40 to 50 investment banking jobs from Britain to Frankfurt. The roles will technically be employed by the bank’s main European entity in Ireland. Chief Executive Jes Staley has said that the group will keep the bulk of its activities in Britain.

BNP PARIBAS
BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) was expected to move up to 300 London investment bank staff because of Brexit, but a source told Reuters in November that the lender has estimated fewer than 90 of its UK-based bank staff will be affected. A number of them, mostly dealing with sales, will have to relocate to mainland Europe.

CITIGROUP
Citigroup (C.N) has opted to bolster its operations in Frankfurt, where its EU trading business will be based after Brexit.

The U.S. bank has also applied for a markets licence and hired senior staff in France, while setting up a unit in Luxembourg to support its private bank. The Financial Times reported on.ft.com/2qG68kJ in November that the bank is scouting a larger Paris office.

Citigroup said in October it was planning to move 63 jobs out of London, as it prepares for the possibility of a hard Brexit. The U.S. bank has said it might need to create 150 new jobs in the EU and that it would move a “couple of hundred” jobs from London.

Bloomberg reported bloom.bg/2AqqUKW in October that Citigroup plans to move some private-banking roles to Madrid from London.

Citigroup is setting up a new British bank, headquartered in London, to house its UK consumer business after Brexit.

CREDIT AGRICOLE
The investment banking unit of Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA) fine-tuned its projection, saying around 20 personnel will move from London to mainland Europe after originally estimating 100.The group was to move its European government bonds trading platform from London to Paris in September 2017.

CREDIT SUISSE
Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) is set to make Madrid its post-Brexit trading hub in the European Union after initially planning to move only some investment banking jobs to the city from London, Bloomberg reported bloom.bg/2BCKlRt in November, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

The bank is expected to move about 50 investment bankers to Germany, 50 to Madrid, and up to 150 more to other European Union hubs including Luxembourg in the event of a hard Brexit. The lender has named Frankfurt, Madrid and Luxembourg as post-Brexit hubs.

Chief Executive Tidjane Thiam said last year that his bank was relatively well placed to deal with Brexit and that only 15-20 percent of volumes in the investment bank would be affected. Chairman Urs Rohner has compared Brexit preparations to open-heart surgery.

DAIWA SECURITIES GROUP
Daiwa Securities Group (8601.T) said it will set up a subsidiary in Frankfurt, which its head had previously touted as its favoured destination as London-based staff could easily be transferred to its investment banking branch in the German city. The Japanese brokerage has said it would still keep staff in London even after Brexit.

DEUTSCHE BANK
Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) said in September it would move assets from London to Frankfurt after Brexit, in line with demands from British and EU regulators. Deutsche Bank said it would make Frankfurt rather than London the primary booking hub for its investment banking clients.

According to a report by the Financial Times, Deutsche Bank could over time move about three quarters of its estimated 600 billion euros ($683.76 billion) in assets from London to Frankfurt.

According to a source close to the matter, Deutsche Bank is also considering transforming its UK arm into a smaller, less complex and ring-fenced subsidiary.

The bank has said hundreds of jobs will move from London rather than thousands. The now-former CEO John Cryan had said he expected to move far fewer than 4,000 jobs to Frankfurt.

EUROCLEAR
Settlement bank Euroclear is opening a new unit in Ireland to avoid Brexit disrupting its ability to process Irish stock and bond transactions. While Euroclear Ireland and Euroclear UK would become legally separate entities, the aim is for both to continue using the existing CREST technical plumbing.

Euroclear is moving its holding company from London to Brussels.

The Irish Times reported here Euroclear is pushing authorities to allow it to continue settling Irish shares in Britain even in the event of a hard Brexit.

FRENCH BANKS
French banks may end up relocating significantly fewer staff than originally expected from London to mainland Europe after Brexit, banking officials said in November.

Sector analysts had forecast that France’s three biggest banks might relocate more than 500 staff combined from London to continental Europe, mostly to Paris, but the final numbers to be moved are likely to be significantly lower.

GOLDMAN SACHS
Goldman Sachs (GS.N) has expanded the number of staff moving to Frankfurt, Bloomberg reported in October.

The bank would have hubs in Frankfurt and Paris after Brexit and it would be up to the staff to decide where they want to move to from London, former CEO Lloyd Blankfein told French newspaper Le Figaro. Handelsblatt reported in January that Goldman Sachs was considering moving up to 1,000 staff to Frankfurt, with its chief in Germany Wolfgang Fink having said the bank could triple or quadruple its presence there.

HANDELSBANKEN
Sweden’s Handelsbanken said it had converted its British branch into a subsidiary that would operate as a standalone business, helping to shield the bank from any potentially disruptive Brexit.

HSBC
HSBC (HSBA.L) could spend up to $300 million moving jobs and parts of its business to Paris.

HSBC has shifted ownership of its Polish and Irish subsidiaries from its London-based entity to its French unit, and will do so for seven more European branches.

The bank said in August that it has not yet begun transferring any of the up to 1,000 staff it has said could ultimately move to its French unit from Britain.

INVESTEC
Investec (INVP.L) (INLJ.J) is considering converting its London bank's Dublin branch into a subsidiary to ensure it has continued access to the European single market, Chief Executive Stephen Koseff told The Telegraph in May. However, the Anglo-South African lender and asset manager would see only a small part of its business affected by Brexit, the newspaper quoted Koseff as saying. (bit.ly/2qywZzY)

JPMORGAN
JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) in July asked “several dozen” employees to lead a first wave of relocations from Britain to continental Europe by early 2019, beefing up its presence in other EU cities including Paris, Madrid and Milan.

Until then the Wall Street heavyweight was broadly expected to focus on expanding its Frankfurt, Luxembourg and Dublin bases, where it already holds banking licenses.

The bank said in September it will establish a wealth management business in Luxembourg and boost offerings at its investment banking and custody and fund businesses.

JPMorgan could move more than 4,000 jobs out of Britain if Brexit talks result in a divergence of regulations and trade agreements between Britain and the European Union, CEO Jamie Dimon said in a BBC interview in January. The biggest U.S. bank by assets said in July last year that the bank would probably use Frankfurt as the legal domicile of its European operations.

JULIUS BAER
Swiss private bank Julius Baer (BAER.S) is moving its European hub from Frankfurt to Luxembourg but will continue to keep its options open in London. Julius Baer is opening three new UK offices as it looks to be the bank for wealthy residents spooked by Brexit.

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) is looking to set up a third European Union subsidiary in Luxembourg to serve longstanding life insurance customers after Britain quits the bloc. If its application is successful, Lloyds will have legal bases in Britain, Berlin, Frankfurt and the Duchy.

Lloyds has selected Berlin as its European hub post-Brexit and is hoping to have this ready by the end of the year.

Lloyds declined to give details on the amount of money it would need to capitalise its Frankfurt entity, but the sum required by the main Berlin subsidiary is expected to run to the “low hundreds of millions of pounds”.

MORGAN STANLEY
Morgan Stanley (MS.N) has chosen Frankfurt to be a new base for its EU operations, a source familiar with the matter said, adding that 200 people could move. One source said the U.S. bank will have to move up to 1,000 jobs in sales and trading, risk management, legal and compliance, as well as slimming the back office in favour of locations overseas. Morgan Stanley also plans to add about 80 jobs in Paris, as it in common with other banks pursues a strategy of having one EU centre as its base but boosting hires in other major financial hubs.

MIZUHO
Japan’s Mizuho Financial Group (8411.T) said it would set up a subsidiary in Frankfurt, the latest Japanese bank to choose the German city as its new base in the European Union as Britain prepares to leave the bloc.

MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP
Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (8306.T) has picked Amsterdam as its EU investment banking base and is considering opening a branch in Paris. It has also said it could move staff to other European hubs.

NOMURA
Nomura Holdings Inc (8604.T) is applying for a licence to operate a new entity in Frankfurt.

NORTHERN TRUST
Asset management company Northern Trust has said it will set up an EU banking base in Luxembourg. Around a third of Northern Trust’s institutional clients have asked it to ringfence British exposure from their broader European portfolios to protect them from Brexit-related risks.

RBS
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) has set an extra 100 million pounds ($128.05 million) aside to account for possible bad loans as a result of Brexit uncertainty. The provision means RBS is concerned that its customers might become less able to pay their debts after Brexit.

RBS has said it may move up to around 150 jobs to Amsterdam after Brexit. RBS also said it was in talks with the Dutch central bank to use a licence it has in the Netherlands to conduct some Natwest Markets business there if it becomes necessary.

SOCIETE GENERALE
Societe Generale’s (SOGN.PA) chief executive officer Frederic Oudea said in November that SocGen is ready in case of a hard Brexit scenario.

He had said earlier that the bank will wait for more clarity on Brexit before deciding whether to move staff away from London, CEO Frederic Oudea has said. Oudea had previous said the bank could move 400 corporate and investment banking jobs from London, with most going to Paris. The bank has looked to hire “a member of a project team dedicated to the Brexit operational delivery execution stream”. SocGen said it would apply for a third-country branch licence with the UK financial regulator by early 2018.

STANDARD CHARTERED
Britain’s Standard Chartered (STAN.L) has started interviewing candidates for about 20 banking jobs it is moving to Frankfurt due to Brexit, the chief financial officer told Reuters in March.

Bloomberg reported bloom.bg/2A651QY in October that the bank was hiking Brexit job plans and that it was said to more than double the headcount in Frankfurt. The report added, citing sources, that Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered recently expanded the number of staff moving to Frankfurt by April.

SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (8316.T) said its core banking unit, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp has decided to set up a subsidiary in Frankfurt.

TD SECURITIES
TD Securities, the investment banking arm of Toronto-Dominion Bank Group (TD.TO), said it would expand operations in Dublin to bolster its European business in response to uncertainty triggered by Brexit.

UNICREDIT
Brexit will not have a major impact on European Banks or London’s status as a major financial centre, the chief executive of Italian bank UniCredit (CRDI.MI) said. UniCredit would only relocate a small number of people from London due to Brexit, CEO Jean Pierre Mustier said.

UBS
UBS (UBSG.S) told CNBC in November that it has prepared for a hard Brexit.

UBS had said in July that Brexit, which is prompting UBS to relocate some of its 5,000 staff in London to Frankfurt, would cost it more than 100 million Swiss francs ($100.52 million).UBS has set up a bank in Frankfurt to consolidate most of its European wealth management operations. The world’s biggest wealth manager told employees in March that it will take a “decentralised” approach to Brexit, with the majority of a first wave of under 200 staff moving to Frankfurt from London. Others will move to European cities where their clients are based.

The bank will merge its British entity into its German headquartered-bank in the absence of a transition deal, it said in March.

WELLS FARGO
Wells Fargo (WFC.N) has applied for an investment firm licence from the French regulator to create a Paris hub for its investment banking and capital markets activity in the European Union after Brexit.
And all those institutions have already sent the 8 junior clerks whose job it is to turn on the lights in the morning and wait there to turn them off at the end of the day.

No one has sat their exams, paid their money, made their life choices to then go and live in sleepy Frankfurt or racist Paris. You get the license, send over a few office spanners and we all stay in London, where we want to be and doing what we want to do while our wives are happy and not being treated like dirty immigrants, our children are happy at good schools and we can all go shooting, fishing, racing whenever we like and fly easily to any holiday destination of our choosing.

No descision makers are going to drag their family to some tinpot, European backwater where you can’t spend your money and your family is bored and miserable. Which is why a handful of jubs will get posted to meet the basic requirements and they will all gather in the same crap bar in Frankfurt on a Friday night, half filling it and telling tales of how they nearly made it in London or once had an interview in NY.

C_Steve

43 posts

57 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
alabbasi said:
Now you're being pedantic. The damage is obvious
‘Pedantic’? Priceless!

I guess the answer to my second question is zero, as suspected. I’m not trying to hurt your feelings by pointing out you don’t have the faintest clue what you’re talking about.

Steve


alfie2244

11,292 posts

189 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
C_Steve said:
‘Pedantic’? Priceless!

I guess the answer to my second question is zero, as suspected. I’m not trying to hurt your feelings by pointing out you don’t have the faintest clue what you’re talking about.

Steve
I asked if he was in the UK earlier.....he never answered that either.

alabbasi

2,518 posts

88 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
C_Steve said:
‘Pedantic’? I guess the answer to my second question is zero, as suspected.
So you're going to hang on the fact that they're not planning on shutting down every aspect of their business even though they're moving a bunch of their best paying job to their European operations. That might help you think that you're winning an argument that nobody gives a toss whether you win or not. It does nothing to change the fact that if there was a better deal, you'd have it by now.


anonymous-user

55 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
May I suggest .... keep it short. Not least because I have the attention span of a goldfish.

And for those who wish to pontificate about the leave/remain debate there's a mind-bendingly tedious thread (now at page 4,956) in NP&E.


C_Steve

43 posts

57 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
alabbasi said:
So you're going to hang on the fact that they're not planning on shutting down every aspect of their business even though they're moving a bunch of their best paying job to their European operations. That might help you think that you're winning an argument that nobody gives a toss whether you win or not. It does nothing to change the fact that if there was a better deal, you'd have it by now.
Where does it say that in the links you’ve provided? Lots of ‘could’, ‘might’, ‘may’ etc. Shame you claim other people are idiots yet are prepared to demonstrate your total ignorance on a subject by googling for a headline and not understanding the stuff you’ve read.

Out of interest, what is your job (assuming you have one) and where are you based?

Donkey Apple clearly knows his stuff, you’d be wise to read and learn.

Condi

17,321 posts

172 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
He could be stuffed though. He works for a private company providing services to the NHS. If they can't provide that service because they can't get, or can't afford, staff, then they'd have to give the contract up. They could lose the contract anyway if there were cutbacks could by the economy (and NHS spending) contracting.
Possibly, but he is not the best qualified person to use such emotive language about the overall health of the economy by describing it as heading towards a 'perfect storm' based on little more than his own thoughts.

His comments on the effects of Brexit on his own business are valid, but for an assessment of the overall economy shouldn't the BBC be using qualified people rather than health care workers? You wouldn't take advice on healthcare from an economist, so why is the opposite a valid opinion?

Gribs

470 posts

137 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
bad company said:
Don’t we just love someone who thinks over 17 million who voted to leave are all idiots.
Well half of the population have below average intelligence, and roughly a quarter of the population voted for brexit, so it's certainly possible a large proportion were idiots.

C_Steve

43 posts

57 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
Gribs said:
Well half of the population have below average intelligence, and roughly a quarter of the population voted for brexit, so it's certainly possible a large proportion were idiots.
Not necessarily true. Neither is it true that being below average intelligence makes you an idiot.

By the same token it is certainly possibly that a large proportion of the population who voted remain were idiots. But it’s not helpful or appropriate to suggest that on a thread like this.


Edited by C_Steve on Sunday 8th September 21:41

bad company

18,730 posts

267 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
Gribs said:
bad company said:
Don’t we just love someone who thinks over 17 million who voted to leave are all idiots.
Well half of the population have below average intelligence, and roughly a quarter of the population voted for brexit, so it's certainly possible a large proportion were idiots.
No doubt you consider yourself to be in the above average group?

C_Steve

43 posts

57 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
bad company said:
No doubt you consider yourself to be in the above average group?
He’s not above average at statistics, that’s for sure!

Groat

5,637 posts

112 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
Spotted!!

C_Steve

43 posts

57 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
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Groat said:
Spotted!!
Told you Alfie
wink

Sheepshanks

32,923 posts

120 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
Condi said:
Sheepshanks said:
He could be stuffed though. He works for a private company providing services to the NHS. If they can't provide that service because they can't get, or can't afford, staff, then they'd have to give the contract up. They could lose the contract anyway if there were cutbacks could by the economy (and NHS spending) contracting.
Possibly, but he is not the best qualified person to use such emotive language about the overall health of the economy by describing it as heading towards a 'perfect storm' based on little more than his own thoughts.

His comments on the effects of Brexit on his own business are valid, but for an assessment of the overall economy shouldn't the BBC be using qualified people rather than health care workers? You wouldn't take advice on healthcare from an economist, so why is the opposite a valid opinion?
It wasn't suggested that he is best person to make a comment. He's not even the only person in that article. I imagine we must be into the thousands of people that the BBC has asked by now.

Anyway, the reality is that no-one has much of an idea what's going to happen. My expectation is the hassle will be immense - the only uncertainty in my mind is how long it will last.

alabbasi

2,518 posts

88 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
C_Steve said:
Out of interest, what is your job (assuming you have one) and where are you based?
Yeah I have a job, a pretty good one that takes me all around the world. I'm also under 50 and have been educated past GCSE's so I fit all the remain demographics.

C_Steve

43 posts

57 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
alabbasi said:
Yeah I have a job, a pretty good one that takes me all around the world. I'm also under 50 and have been educated past GCSE's so I fit all the remain demographics.
Doesn’t really answer the question.

However, you still chose to make stupid and incorrect statements about something you clearly don’t know much about, then tried to ‘double down’ when your lies were highlighted. Which made you look a bit of an ‘idiot’.

alabbasi

2,518 posts

88 months

Sunday 8th September 2019
quotequote all
What did I lie about?

C_Steve said:
Doesn’t really answer the question.

However, you still chose to make stupid and incorrect statements about something you clearly don’t know much about, then tried to ‘double down’ when your lies were highlighted. Which made you look a bit of an ‘idiot’.