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DonkeyApple

56,230 posts

171 months

Wednesday 25th February 2015
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Beazley are paying a 5% divi tomorrow. As a stock indy of oil movement and if the FTSE remains in its current phase then this is likely to offer a quick arbitrage turn as it probably won't sell off by the full 5% in the morning. Always like these punts as the average yield for holding less than a day is between .5 and 1% unleveraged.

gregf40

1,114 posts

118 months

Wednesday 25th February 2015
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DonkeyApple said:
Beazley are paying a 5% divi tomorrow. As a stock indy of oil movement and if the FTSE remains in its current phase then this is likely to offer a quick arbitrage turn as it probably won't sell off by the full 5% in the morning. Always like these punts as the average yield for holding less than a day is between .5 and 1% unleveraged.
All things being equal it most certainly will drop by 5% if the dividend equates to 5% (and assuming you actually mean the share is going ex-div as opposed to paying a divi).

If it was that easy don't you think every hedge fund under the sun would do it?

DonkeyApple

56,230 posts

171 months

Wednesday 25th February 2015
quotequote all
gregf40 said:
DonkeyApple said:
Beazley are paying a 5% divi tomorrow. As a stock indy of oil movement and if the FTSE remains in its current phase then this is likely to offer a quick arbitrage turn as it probably won't sell off by the full 5% in the morning. Always like these punts as the average yield for holding less than a day is between .5 and 1% unleveraged.
All things being equal it most certainly will drop by 5% if the dividend equates to 5% (and assuming you actually mean the share is going ex-div as opposed to paying a divi).

If it was that easy don't you think everyone would do it?
It doesn't work like that in reality wink

There are imperfections created by the movement of funds moving in/out ahead of the XD and a retail trading operates in volumes that can benefit from this arbitrage op.

Have a look at the special div paid on Melrose this week, that traded above as did AstraZeneca last week.

Catlin last week has failed in contrast but if you run the right filters and monitor the order book flow changes in the run up then it's a low risk strategy with a near 70% strike rate.


walm

10,610 posts

204 months

Wednesday 25th February 2015
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Sideways Rich said:
Thoughts on Bowleven - BLVN? In 15 days they will have their current market cap in cash with the Lukoil deal.
Sure, but they are going to burn through the cash - they aren't giving it back.
The deal looks 100% priced in now - so where is the incremental upside?

DonkeyApple

56,230 posts

171 months

Thursday 26th February 2015
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
gregf40 said:
DonkeyApple said:
Beazley are paying a 5% divi tomorrow. As a stock indy of oil movement and if the FTSE remains in its current phase then this is likely to offer a quick arbitrage turn as it probably won't sell off by the full 5% in the morning. Always like these punts as the average yield for holding less than a day is between .5 and 1% unleveraged.
All things being equal it most certainly will drop by 5% if the dividend equates to 5% (and assuming you actually mean the share is going ex-div as opposed to paying a divi).

If it was that easy don't you think everyone would do it?
It doesn't work like that in reality wink

There are imperfections created by the movement of funds moving in/out ahead of the XD and a retail trading operates in volumes that can benefit from this arbitrage op.

Have a look at the special div paid on Melrose this week, that traded above as did AstraZeneca last week.

Catlin last week has failed in contrast but if you run the right filters and monitor the order book flow changes in the run up then it's a low risk strategy with a near 70% strike rate.
My partner was running a stop at 5.5% so was stopped out in Beazley at the open for break even as the trade technically failed. I was on the phone and missed it and am holding a 3% loss and waiting for the bid up now over the following 7 days or so which usually occurs.

The Stiglet

2,062 posts

196 months

Friday 27th February 2015
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Is there any hope for UK small and micro caps in 2015 or best to get out? I bought into the Marlborough fund in March last year and it's been a dive ever since. Clearly a case of bad timing but I don't want to keep up the underperformance chasing a break-even scenario when there are other opportunities.

Mattt

16,661 posts

220 months

Friday 27th February 2015
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Anyone looking at Woodfords new fund? I've done well so far out of his first.

K12beano

20,854 posts

277 months

Friday 27th February 2015
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Are you patient?

Zippee

13,502 posts

236 months

Friday 27th February 2015
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Mattt said:
Anyone looking at Woodfords new fund? I've done well so far out of his first.
Very long term and potentially illiquid at points. Agree on his first fund though smile

Mattt

16,661 posts

220 months

Saturday 28th February 2015
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Yes I was thinking of only putting in a little bit, as it should do well in the long run - but agree it's not a short term proposal.

TheLordJohn

5,746 posts

148 months

Saturday 28th February 2015
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Don't know if it's been asked yet, but as we are a car forum, has anyone looked into Ferrari yet?

trashbat

6,006 posts

155 months

Saturday 28th February 2015
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TheLordJohn said:
Don't know if it's been asked yet, but as we are a car forum, has anyone looked into Ferrari yet?
I'll be getting some automatically, providing I don't sell up my Fiat shares first (97% gain, don't expect much more out it for now). I'm not so interested in Ferrari though, a much less interesting narrative I think, so I'll probably sell them. I might need to think about what the pound/euro direction is though, as it's put a dent in my Fiat profits.

Edited by trashbat on Saturday 28th February 08:55

traxx

3,143 posts

224 months

Sunday 1st March 2015
quotequote all
trashbat said:
TheLordJohn said:
Don't know if it's been asked yet, but as we are a car forum, has anyone looked into Ferrari yet?
I'll be getting some automatically, providing I don't sell up my Fiat shares first (97% gain, don't expect much more out it for now). I'm not so interested in Ferrari though, a much less interesting narrative I think, so I'll probably sell them. I might need to think about what the pound/euro direction is though, as it's put a dent in my Fiat profits.

Edited by trashbat on Saturday 28th February 08:55
Arent Fiat aiming for some crazy PE like 35?

trashbat

6,006 posts

155 months

Sunday 1st March 2015
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traxx said:
Arent Fiat aiming for some crazy PE like 35?
On Fiat or Ferrari? If Fiat I probably ought to know, but I've no idea. I gather it's currently around 16.

My interest in it's been as a growth share on the back of a turnaround tale & hopefully some positives in the forthcoming Alfa revival, so hasn't to date been very much about the specific economics, but nowadays at a fairly high share price I should either get out or look at the detail.

jeff m2

2,060 posts

153 months

Monday 2nd March 2015
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If anyone has any Bacanora BCN.L then tomorrow could be a good day to sell.
Up 32% this afternoon in Canada, mid price 1.78 Canadian Looney.
A limit sell just over a Pound should go thru ok during happy hour.

Or of course it could go higher, as there is quite a high speculative component to UKbiggrin

Up on 4X volume, I only saw it because one of my limit sells was exercised.


gaz1234

5,233 posts

221 months

Monday 2nd March 2015
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Tullow fked?

marky1

1,047 posts

198 months

Tuesday 3rd March 2015
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gaz1234 said:
Tullow fked?
Out of the FTSE 100.

DSLiverpool

14,832 posts

204 months

Saturday 7th March 2015
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Would the market have a Lib / Lab coalition factored in now ? or should that horrible thing actually happen is it ready to dive. I suppose a Lab / UKIP coalition would be worse - doesnt bear thinking about.

g4ry13

17,280 posts

257 months

Saturday 7th March 2015
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More like a UKIP / ... coalition!

The libs are looking to have a shocking election, i'm not sure they're going to be 3rd or even 4th!

isee

3,713 posts

185 months

Monday 9th March 2015
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DonkeyApple said:
My partner was running a stop at 5.5% so was stopped out in Beazley at the open for break even as the trade technically failed. I was on the phone and missed it and am holding a 3% loss and waiting for the bid up now over the following 7 days or so which usually occurs.
Are you trading from home or is it OPM?
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