Your questions answered Vol 2 - IM Private Clients

[Simpo Two]

pingu393 said:

You can't spend a percentage on beer and pizza, but you can spend the free £20k. The percentage will only tell you that you made a brilliant decision, or that you were a complete numpty and should have put it on a horse. But what is done is done.

What percentage number would you want?

You want money in vs value now. That sum can be expressed as a percentage.

If you made £20K on a million that wouldn't be much to crow about. But if you made £20K on £20K, it certainly would be. So you need both to assess performance.

[pingu393]

Simpo Two said:

pingu393 said:

You can't spend a percentage on beer and pizza, but you can spend the free £20k. The percentage will only tell you that you made a brilliant decision, or that you were a complete numpty and should have put it on a horse. But what is done is done.

What percentage number would you want?

You want money in vs value now. That sum can be expressed as a percentage.

If you made £20K on a million that wouldn't be much to crow about. But if you made £20K on £20K, it certainly would be. So you need both to assess performance.

The problem isn't with massive differences like that, but is £21k over 18 months better than £20k over 16 months.

Only you can decide, because you may have been able to buy a car for £20k car that two months later would have cost £22k.

[PM3]

I am curious Anyone have any opinion what happened about 12 May 2023 to OGG for me it just detached itself from the vague following ( lesser magnitude of swing) IM100 . I plotted my OGG, IM100 and the difference . Maybe its just a case of what happened to IM100 that it just ran ahead

[leef44]

PM3 said:

I am curious Anyone have any opinion what happened about 12 May 2023 to OGG for me it just detached itself from the vague following ( lesser magnitude of swing) IM100 . I plotted my OGG, IM100 and the difference . Maybe its just a case of what happened to IM100 that it just ran ahead

I know OGG has bonds and that has dropped in value significantly but it is hard to imagine it would have that big an impact given that it is only a small portion of the portfolio. So yes, I'm curious what is driving such a big detachment.

[AdamIM]

PM3 said:

I am curious Anyone have any opinion what happened about 12 May 2023 to OGG for me it just detached itself from the vague following ( lesser magnitude of swing) IM100 . I plotted my OGG, IM100 and the difference . Maybe its just a case of what happened to IM100 that it just ran ahead

Morning,

Here are the daily figures for both models (May). If you email me i can send you the file.

Edited by AdamIM on Friday 10th November 09:46

[PM3]

Adam, you have mail . (Thanks for the super fast engagement already !)

[2Btoo]

pingu393 said:

Only you can decide, because you may have been able to buy a car for £20k car that two months later would have cost £22k.

Another interesting comment ... the more I look at the whole business of investing the more I see it integrating into life as a whole. Measuring the performance of an investment *can* be done by raw percentages but there are other factors to bear in mind (as discussed) but also how it fits with everything else going on in your life. This example of buying a car is a nice one; the performance of your investment isn't the biggest factor - it's how you spend (or don't spend) the money.

I recall asking Terry Smith what is a suitable timeframe for assessing the performance of an investment. His reply was that a lifetime is not long enough. I thought it a weird answer at the time but the more I think about it the more true I suspect it was.

[AdamIM]

CPI numbers just in. Headline inflation flat (0%) on from September and Core inflation lower than expected. It is clear that 'inflation' is starting to fade away. As expected the USD weakened 140bps on the news. Equity markets are happy and the rally continues. Id expect debt yields to fall too.



Regards

Adam

[superlightr]

been some bumpy rides the last month but boy o boy when jumps up occur ie last week are they good. PHT doing fab again. approx 36% YTD if my calcs are correct.

With the IM portfolio re-balance - were there any equities added or taken away or just a rebalance?

Would love to have Meta and Palantir in PHT,

Was thinking that with the big jump last weeks end would today this week be a drop down or the start of the santa rally. With the figures in today and the sentiment the fed bank has done enough with rates as played out we are in an epic position. Plus the big intuitional investors (smart money) will be playing catch up so hopefully a very strong end to this year coming ie out of money markets and back into equities.

its fascinating how all the different strings get pulled in so many directions and what come out at the end.

Edited by superlightr on Tuesday 14th November 15:13

Edited by superlightr on Tuesday 14th November 15:15

Edited by superlightr on Tuesday 14th November 15:16

[AdamIM]

superlightr said:

been some bumpy rides the last month but boy o boy when jumps up occur ie last week are they good. PHT doing fab again. approx 36% YTD if my calcs are correct.

With the IM portfolio re-balance - were there any equities added or taken away or just a rebalance?

Would love to have Meta and Palantir in PHT,

Was thinking that with the big jump last weeks end would today this week be a drop down or the start of the santa rally. With the figures in today and the sentiment the fed bank has done enough with rates as played out we are in an epic position. Plus the big intuitional investors (smart money) will be playing catch up so hopefully a very strong end to this year coming ie out of money markets and back into equities.

its fascinating how all the different strings get pulled in so many directions and what come out at the end.

Edited by superlightr on Tuesday 14th November 15:13

Edited by superlightr on Tuesday 14th November 15:15

Edited by superlightr on Tuesday 14th November 15:16

Hi James,

YTD(1 Jan-today) PHT is up over 50%
We conducted a standard rebalance. However we are always looking and there will be some changes by the year end.

Meta certainly did turn things around and it's growth since the lows has been spectacular. It's a good business but a polarising one- we did look at it but we concluded at the time that it was either going to rebound or suffer from negative sentiment and of course Apples privacy policy opt-in. It was very much a coin flip at the time. I am surprised how quickly they turned the business around and I don't think the stock is particularly expensive either. They haven't monetised WhatsApp, yet.

I think we all suffer from confirmation bias(to a degree) when looking at investing
Regards

Adam

Edited by AdamIM on Tuesday 14th November 15:45

[AdamIM]

To all PHO holders. SMCI had a big day today +$36 or 14%+ (real time). I did say it would be volatile and it will continue to be the case for some time.

Regards

Adam

[Ron-ski]

AdamIM said:

They haven't monetised WhatsApp, yet.

In June they added channels, which looks perfect for being monetised, and then there is Whats App Business, which has a 1000 free messages a month.

https://business.whatsapp.com/products/platform-pr...

[AdamIM]

Ron-ski said:

AdamIM said:

They haven't monetised WhatsApp, yet.

In June they added channels, which looks perfect for being monetised, and then there is Whats App Business, which has a 1000 free messages a month.

https://business.whatsapp.com/products/platform-pr...

Hi Ron, I’m referencing the 2.5b consumers who use WhatsApp free of any charges. If they asked me to pay £5/m tomorrow I’d agree. Im sure 100’s of millions would too.

[2Btoo]

AdamIM said:

Hi Ron, I’m referencing the 2.5b consumers who use WhatsApp free of any charges. If they asked me to pay £5/m tomorrow I’d agree. Im sure 100’s of millions would too.

Oooooh now that's a sticky one!

Would I pay £5/month to use WhatsApp? No.

Do I want them to charge £5/month to use WhatsApp? Yes - I own Meta shares (through FundSmith)!

[PM3]

Please please please..... NO to Meta in PHT ( oh and while we are in my dream world, dump that TWILIO . Its been a shart from the start )

[2Btoo]

PM3 said:

Please please please..... NO to Meta in PHT ( oh and while we are in my dream world, dump that TWILIO . Its been a shart from the start )

Interesting. Why such strong feelings?

[okgo]

2Btoo said:

Interesting. Why such strong feelings?

Twilio about to turn a profit and extremely sticky product - while I doubt it’ll get back to $400 I think it’ll certainly gain from here.

[Sheepshanks]

superlightr said:

Would love to have Meta and Palantir in PHT,

Be great if you could get the timing right, but Meta isn’t quite back to where it was a couple of years ago.

[okgo]

Sheepshanks said:

Be great if you could get the timing right, but Meta isn’t quite back to where it was a couple of years ago.

It isn’t far.

It’s mad that it took that hit over the metaverse a year back. It was always a money making machine - 2bn MAU for insta and the market somehow thought the metaverse was going to sink it? Mental.

[superlightr]

As Adam has said PHT has done great since launch and this years 50%+ YTD - Its where we have about 40% of our total funds. So big bet on it.

Edited by superlightr on Tuesday 14th November 23:37