Your questions answered Vol 2 - IM Private Clients
Discussion
PM3 said:
okgo said:
Twilio about to turn a profit and extremely sticky product - while I doubt it’ll get back to $400 I think it’ll certainly gain from here.
about same chance as ...... me playing pickup stick with my a** cheeks 
PM3 said:
okgo said:
Twilio about to turn a profit and extremely sticky product - while I doubt it’ll get back to $400 I think it’ll certainly gain from here.
about same chance as ...... me playing pickup stick with my a** cheeks OT- UK inflation just in shows a material drop to 4.6%, the lowest rate since Nov 2021. This will stem the strength of GBP/USD and should also see longer dated yields (which drive lending/mortgages) come down. So the takeaway is that the outlook looks significantly more positive that it did earlier.
Regards
Adam
AdamIM said:
Hi Ron, I’m referencing the 2.5b consumers who use WhatsApp free of any charges. If they asked me to pay £5/m tomorrow I’d agree. Im sure 100’s of millions would too.
You may well be, but I know none of my immediate family, and none of my brothers would be paying anything a month, we'd just move on to another app, in fact a lot of us on Android already likely have a perfectly suitable replacement, Google RCS messages, which is replacing the basic SMS app, it has very similar functionality as What's App. There's also messenger, unless they charge for that as well.I still think they are likely to monetise the business side first, rather than drive users away,.
Edited by Ron-ski on Wednesday 15th November 10:38
Ron-ski said:
AdamIM said:
Hi Ron, I’m referencing the 2.5b consumers who use WhatsApp free of any charges. If they asked me to pay £5/m tomorrow I’d agree. Im sure 100’s of millions would too.
You may well be, but I know none of my immediate family, and none of my brothers would be paying anything a month, we'd just move on to another app, in fact a lot of us on Android already likely have a perfectly suitable replacement, Google RCS messages, which is replacing the basic SMS app, it has very similar functionality as What's App. There's also messenger, unless they charge for that as well.I still think they are likely to monetise the business side first, rather than drive users away,.
Edited by Ron-ski on Wednesday 15th November 10:38
Good afternoon.
Have the dashboard feeds updated for yesterday? Yesterday was a great day for the PHT and PHE etc - There looked to be at a min a 1.5% + growth yesterday in the PHT stocks but doesn't appear to being shown in the portfolios/dash yet?
Have the dashboard feeds updated for yesterday? Yesterday was a great day for the PHT and PHE etc - There looked to be at a min a 1.5% + growth yesterday in the PHT stocks but doesn't appear to being shown in the portfolios/dash yet?
Edited by superlightr on Wednesday 15th November 13:12
superlightr said:
Have the dashboard feeds updated for yesterday? There was a 1.5% + growth yesterday in the PHT stocks but doesn't appear to being shown in the portfolios/dash yet?
Hi James,Yes all up to date. PHT (portfolio) +190bps, FX move -173 bps. Net +16.6 bps. If you run your mouse over the graph it has moved a very small amount.
The USD weakened a fair bit due to low inflation = cap on rates and likely nearer term reductions. Luckily the UK reported big CPI falls too so has stopped the USD fall in its tracks. Today might be a better day
AdamIM said:
superlightr said:
Have the dashboard feeds updated for yesterday? There was a 1.5% + growth yesterday in the PHT stocks but doesn't appear to being shown in the portfolios/dash yet?
Hi James,Yes all up to date. PHT (portfolio) +190bps, FX move -173 bps. Net +16.6 bps. If you run your mouse over the graph it has moved a very small amount.
The USD weakened a fair bit due to low inflation = cap on rates and likely nearer term reductions. Luckily the UK reported big CPI falls too so has stopped the USD fall in its tracks. Today might be a better day
superlightr said:
AdamIM said:
superlightr said:
Have the dashboard feeds updated for yesterday? There was a 1.5% + growth yesterday in the PHT stocks but doesn't appear to being shown in the portfolios/dash yet?
Hi James,Yes all up to date. PHT (portfolio) +190bps, FX move -173 bps. Net +16.6 bps. If you run your mouse over the graph it has moved a very small amount.
The USD weakened a fair bit due to low inflation = cap on rates and likely nearer term reductions. Luckily the UK reported big CPI falls too so has stopped the USD fall in its tracks. Today might be a better day
so far we have a 44bps boost, today
Edited by AdamIM on Wednesday 15th November 13:42
2Btoo said:
Can someone explain in nice and simple terms why low inflation causes a country's currency to weaken?
I don't doubt it's true, but have always been a bit fick as to why these sorts of things are connected.
No more interest rate increases possibility signs of decreasing rates going forward I don't doubt it's true, but have always been a bit fick as to why these sorts of things are connected.
Ding is correct. It's complex and the simple way to think about it is Demand and Supply. High demand = stronger dollar and so forth
A bit more detail, but yesterdays move was simply CPI suggesting peak rates are in and lower rates are coming which caused outflows of USD and represented in the Futures 'FUT' market.
Interest Rates Impact Investment Flows:
When interest rates in a country increase, it becomes more attractive for foreign investors to invest in that country's assets (and you need USD to deposit cash or buy something in the US). Higher interest rates offer better returns on investment compared to other countries with lower rates. As a result, there's an increased demand for that country's currency to invest in its assets (like bonds or stocks), causing an appreciation in the value of its currency.
Carry Trade : Traders engaged in the carry trade borrow in currencies with lower interest rates and invest in higher-yielding currencies. If the U.S. raises its interest rates, it can attract more foreign capital seeking higher returns. This can lead to an increased demand for the USD, driving up its value.
Inflation and Central Bank Policies: Central banks use interest rates as a tool to manage inflation and economic growth. Higher interest rates can be used to control inflation by reducing spending. When a country's central bank increases rates to combat inflation, it often strengthens the country's currency as well.
Global Economic policy : Interest rates in the U.S. relative to those in other countries can affect the flow of capital. If the U.S. interest rates are higher compared to other major economies, it can attract foreign investment and consequently strengthen the USD.
Sentiment and Speculation: Anticipation of interest rate changes can heavily influence currency markets. If investors expect interest rates to rise in the future, they might buy into the currency ahead of time, increasing its value. Conversely, if they expect rates to fall, it could lead to a decrease in the currency's value.
In essence, while interest rates do have a significant impact on the value of a currency like the USD, the relationship is part of a larger, intricate network of economic factors that collectively determine currency valuations in the foreign exchange market.
A bit more detail, but yesterdays move was simply CPI suggesting peak rates are in and lower rates are coming which caused outflows of USD and represented in the Futures 'FUT' market.
Interest Rates Impact Investment Flows:
When interest rates in a country increase, it becomes more attractive for foreign investors to invest in that country's assets (and you need USD to deposit cash or buy something in the US). Higher interest rates offer better returns on investment compared to other countries with lower rates. As a result, there's an increased demand for that country's currency to invest in its assets (like bonds or stocks), causing an appreciation in the value of its currency.
Carry Trade : Traders engaged in the carry trade borrow in currencies with lower interest rates and invest in higher-yielding currencies. If the U.S. raises its interest rates, it can attract more foreign capital seeking higher returns. This can lead to an increased demand for the USD, driving up its value.
Inflation and Central Bank Policies: Central banks use interest rates as a tool to manage inflation and economic growth. Higher interest rates can be used to control inflation by reducing spending. When a country's central bank increases rates to combat inflation, it often strengthens the country's currency as well.
Global Economic policy : Interest rates in the U.S. relative to those in other countries can affect the flow of capital. If the U.S. interest rates are higher compared to other major economies, it can attract foreign investment and consequently strengthen the USD.
Sentiment and Speculation: Anticipation of interest rate changes can heavily influence currency markets. If investors expect interest rates to rise in the future, they might buy into the currency ahead of time, increasing its value. Conversely, if they expect rates to fall, it could lead to a decrease in the currency's value.
In essence, while interest rates do have a significant impact on the value of a currency like the USD, the relationship is part of a larger, intricate network of economic factors that collectively determine currency valuations in the foreign exchange market.
Some of you may have read that Open Ai fired Sam Altman on Friday along with two other Board members. Apparently they did this without consulting Microsoft. Given Satya Nadella was on a stage with Altman just 3 days prior espousing their admiration for each other and their close working relationship, this was rather embarrassing.
In a developing twist, Msft have hired all three ex Open AI staff with Altman now head of Msft's newly formed AI division. The stock is up 2.5% in pre market.
The story is developing, MSFT have completely gutted Open AI, hiring 100's of key staff.
It's a very interesting situation and a net positive for MSFT and NVDA. We know MSFT has ordered 400K+ GPUs for 2024 and has committed $50B(2024) to materially expand AI data centre factories. Open AI has a 75,000GPU installation in progress and I can't see MSFT using that now, rather they will have to purchase more GPUs.
It is conceivable that Open AI go bust as I expect MSFT to sue for recovery of much of their investment, leaving OpenAI toxic and unable to raise capital. And to be fair, how can you trust a company that pulls such a stunt.
MSFT stock it up 2% in PM sitting at an all time high
In a developing twist, Msft have hired all three ex Open AI staff with Altman now head of Msft's newly formed AI division. The stock is up 2.5% in pre market.
The story is developing, MSFT have completely gutted Open AI, hiring 100's of key staff.
It's a very interesting situation and a net positive for MSFT and NVDA. We know MSFT has ordered 400K+ GPUs for 2024 and has committed $50B(2024) to materially expand AI data centre factories. Open AI has a 75,000GPU installation in progress and I can't see MSFT using that now, rather they will have to purchase more GPUs.
It is conceivable that Open AI go bust as I expect MSFT to sue for recovery of much of their investment, leaving OpenAI toxic and unable to raise capital. And to be fair, how can you trust a company that pulls such a stunt.
MSFT stock it up 2% in PM sitting at an all time high
Edited by AdamIM on Monday 20th November 11:14
Edited by AdamIM on Monday 20th November 11:15
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