What’s your big gamble?
Discussion
Skyedriver said:
TCX said:
ALawson said:
TCX said:
Boo hoo
Painful to read,was someone twisting your arm?
Painful to read,was someone twisting your arm?
Boohoo is that a tip?
500 Miles said:
Amigo...
Just catching up in the papers ...
In the Times they are reporting that the increase in SP was driven by the agreement with the FCA to extend the deadline to deal with complaints, I haven’t read anywhere about them becoming an acquisition target due to the founder being below 50%.
They also reported that liquidity was strong and that the cost to settle claims would be substantially higher than the £35m already provisioned.
They may well be an acquisition target, I just can’t see the source of the story. Would think that an acquisition would be most likely when they had a better idea of their exposure to the complaints.
I’m still in and planning to ride the wave. I bought in a while ago and then averaged down, was underwater until late this week - now up 31%.
Definitely a roller coaster, definitely a gamble
Which in this instant proves the obvious is not always the reason!Just catching up in the papers ...
In the Times they are reporting that the increase in SP was driven by the agreement with the FCA to extend the deadline to deal with complaints, I haven’t read anywhere about them becoming an acquisition target due to the founder being below 50%.
They also reported that liquidity was strong and that the cost to settle claims would be substantially higher than the £35m already provisioned.
They may well be an acquisition target, I just can’t see the source of the story. Would think that an acquisition would be most likely when they had a better idea of their exposure to the complaints.
I’m still in and planning to ride the wave. I bought in a while ago and then averaged down, was underwater until late this week - now up 31%.
Definitely a roller coaster, definitely a gamble
classic journalist, Looks to see SP is up 61%... looks at RNS. oh it must be because they have longer to sort out complaints. Stops looking any further. writes story.
It's nothing to do with that RNS. Investors don't care if they have 6 days 6 weeks or 6 months to answer complaints.
The journalists missed the other RNS saying Richmond holdings are now 49.6%
there are loads of articles since the beginning of the year includes Press releases and RNS from Amigo about being up for sale and then having a prospective purchaser who went through due diligence and was valuing the company at £100m which was 20.9p a share.
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_159058040...
But James Benamor who owned 61% said it was an insult and on twitter said it was worth 4 or 5 times this amount so rejected it.
Then he called a meeting to dispose of every current Director and CEO but decided to let the other minority shareholders vote and not just him with his 61% to pass the motions.
Much to his surprise they voted 90% for keeping the current people.
so in a fit of pique presumably he set in motion an irrevocable contract to sell his shares 1% a day to the masses rather than sell to whoever offered 20.9p
it's all bonkers
Before the virus the company was trading at 60p.
what the market likes is, as we know, his share is now under 50% so it opens up the possibility of a buy out again.
but even if it is not sold the bit in Friday's RNS that we like is the company's cash position has gone UP £20m to £135m in the last 2 months and so is dealing with lockdown fine, unlike most other companies.
Looking at the accounts the value of the company is about 4 or 5 times the current market cap of £65m so Benamor is right in saying an SP of 80p is more like it. -
and at the IPO only 2 years ago today on 4th July 2018 the price was 275p valuing the company at £1.3 billion so the SP now is ridiculous value which doesn't really take into account the £135 million in cash!!
Even if it has to pay out £50 million in complaints that is about 6 months profit so no problem.
The dividend is also excellent so actually not as much a risk as i thought and although I will sell some shares at some point I will also be keeping some for the long run,
So, I would be happy with a takeover offer at 40p because that at least covers the money in the bank account ! but they can forget 20p
Edited by GPH on Saturday 4th July 17:45
and they had already made provision in the 9 months accounts to December 2019 of £18.7 million for complaints
https://amigoloans.cdn.prismic.io/amigoloans/6892f...
https://amigoloans.cdn.prismic.io/amigoloans/6892f...
GPH said:
500 Miles said:
Amigo...
Just catching up in the papers ...
In the Times they are reporting that the increase in SP was driven by the agreement with the FCA to extend the deadline to deal with complaints, I haven’t read anywhere about them becoming an acquisition target due to the founder being below 50%.
They also reported that liquidity was strong and that the cost to settle claims would be substantially higher than the £35m already provisioned.
They may well be an acquisition target, I just can’t see the source of the story. Would think that an acquisition would be most likely when they had a better idea of their exposure to the complaints.
I’m still in and planning to ride the wave. I bought in a while ago and then averaged down, was underwater until late this week - now up 31%.
Definitely a roller coaster, definitely a gamble
Which in this instant proves the obvious is not always the reason!Just catching up in the papers ...
In the Times they are reporting that the increase in SP was driven by the agreement with the FCA to extend the deadline to deal with complaints, I haven’t read anywhere about them becoming an acquisition target due to the founder being below 50%.
They also reported that liquidity was strong and that the cost to settle claims would be substantially higher than the £35m already provisioned.
They may well be an acquisition target, I just can’t see the source of the story. Would think that an acquisition would be most likely when they had a better idea of their exposure to the complaints.
I’m still in and planning to ride the wave. I bought in a while ago and then averaged down, was underwater until late this week - now up 31%.
Definitely a roller coaster, definitely a gamble
classic journalist, Looks to see SP is up 61%... looks at RNS. oh it must be because they have longer to sort out complaints. Stops looking any further. writes story.
It's nothing to do with that RNS. Investors don't care if they have 6 days 6 weeks or 6 months to answer complaints.
The journalists missed the other RNS saying Richmond holdings are now 49.6%
there are loads of articles since the beginning of the year includes Press releases and RNS from Amigo about being up for sale and then having a prospective purchaser who went through due diligence and was valuing the company at £100m which was 20.9p a share.
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_159058040...
But James Benamor who owned 61% said it was an insult and on twitter said it was worth 4 or 5 times this amount so rejected it.
Then he called a meeting to dispose of every current Director and CEO but decided to let the other minority shareholders vote and not just him with his 61% to pass the motions.
Much to his surprise they voted 90% for keeping the current people.
so in a fit of pique presumably he set in motion an irrevocable contract to sell his shares 1% a day to the masses rather than sell to whoever offered 20.9p
it's all bonkers
Before the virus the company was trading at 60p.
what the market likes is, as we know, his share is now under 50% so it opens up the possibility of a buy out again.
but even if it is not sold the bit in Friday's RNS that we like is the company's cash position has gone UP £20m to £135m in the last 2 months and so is dealing with lockdown fine, unlike most other companies.
Looking at the accounts the value of the company is about 4 or 5 times the current market cap of £65m so Benamor is right in saying an SP of 80p is more like it. -
and at the IPO only 2 years ago today on 4th July 2018 the price was 275p valuing the company at £1.3 billion so the SP now is ridiculous value which doesn't really take into account the £135 million in cash!!
Even if it has to pay out £50 million in complaints that is about 6 months profit so no problem.
The dividend is also excellent so actually not as much a risk as i thought and although I will sell some shares at some point I will also be keeping some for the long run,
So, I would be happy with a takeover offer at 40p because that at least covers the money in the bank account ! but they can forget 20p
Edited by GPH on Saturday 4th July 17:45
Just because the management team want to jump at 20.9p then surely he holds all the cards and can simply say "nope, I'm looking at 60p+".
As I say, unless he is very petulant and cutting off his nose etc then why sell his holding at a pittance ?
MikeStroud said:
I don't really get this. Unless Benamor is an extremely petulant person then (as he owned 61%) surely he could simply tell anyone that will listen he is not selling at anything less than X (60p+)??
Just because the management team want to jump at 20.9p then surely he holds all the cards and can simply say "nope, I'm looking at 60p+".
As I say, unless he is very petulant and cutting off his nose etc then why sell his holding at a pittance ?
His contract with his broker is making him do it. Just because the management team want to jump at 20.9p then surely he holds all the cards and can simply say "nope, I'm looking at 60p+".
As I say, unless he is very petulant and cutting off his nose etc then why sell his holding at a pittance ?
it makes no rational sense but YES he said he would not work with the current Board and thought he would be backed by the other shareholders but they snubbed him.
so rather than sell to the new company the Board wanted to he would spite the Board and other shareholders by selling millions of shares a day. even if he lost money......
But i guess he also hoped he might get more than 20p a share and as of about Tuesday next week he will probably get his wish so it makes sense in the end
but they are now being gladly bought up - also by funds and institutions apparently because they can smell the value
This whole saga will become a big media story soon.
so rather than sell to the new company the Board wanted to he would spite the Board and other shareholders by selling millions of shares a day. even if he lost money......
But i guess he also hoped he might get more than 20p a share and as of about Tuesday next week he will probably get his wish so it makes sense in the end
but they are now being gladly bought up - also by funds and institutions apparently because they can smell the value
This whole saga will become a big media story soon.
Edited by GPH on Saturday 4th July 18:33
GPH said:
it makes no rational sense but YES he said he would not work with the current Board and thought he would be backed by the other shareholders but they snubbed him.
so rather than sell to the new company the Board wanted to he would spite the Board and other shareholders by selling millions of shares a day. even if he lost money......
But i guess he also hoped he might get more than 20p a share and as of about Tuesday next week he will probably get his wish so it makes sense in the end
but they are now being gladly bought up - also by funds and institutions apparently because they can smell the value
This whole saga will become a big media story soon.
Come Monday morning, its all the shoe shine boys will be talking about. so rather than sell to the new company the Board wanted to he would spite the Board and other shareholders by selling millions of shares a day. even if he lost money......
But i guess he also hoped he might get more than 20p a share and as of about Tuesday next week he will probably get his wish so it makes sense in the end
but they are now being gladly bought up - also by funds and institutions apparently because they can smell the value
This whole saga will become a big media story soon.
Edited by GPH on Saturday 4th July 18:33
https://twitter.com/JamesBenamor/status/1278242625...
It's all here on his Twitter, The previous CEO has just left so Benamor says he is going to sue him for loss of share value now he cant hid behind Amigo's lawyers.
It's all really personal to him obviously as he started the company, so revenge is what he wants and logic goes out the window sometimes.
But as I said, it looks like it will work out ok for him in the long run as he has been selling 1% of his 61% for 10 days at around 5p but now has 50 days left selling at above the 20p offer from Tuesday onwards?
In January it was 70p before all the arguing started and how many companies have had their bank account increase rather than decrease in the last 3 months - not many but they have even though they have not been lending to new clients since April,
Finally, the current market cap of the company at a SP of 14p is the same as 1 years' profit........
That's why it's going up rapidly. nothing to do with an RNS about replying to customer complaints
It's all here on his Twitter, The previous CEO has just left so Benamor says he is going to sue him for loss of share value now he cant hid behind Amigo's lawyers.
It's all really personal to him obviously as he started the company, so revenge is what he wants and logic goes out the window sometimes.
But as I said, it looks like it will work out ok for him in the long run as he has been selling 1% of his 61% for 10 days at around 5p but now has 50 days left selling at above the 20p offer from Tuesday onwards?
In January it was 70p before all the arguing started and how many companies have had their bank account increase rather than decrease in the last 3 months - not many but they have even though they have not been lending to new clients since April,
Finally, the current market cap of the company at a SP of 14p is the same as 1 years' profit........
That's why it's going up rapidly. nothing to do with an RNS about replying to customer complaints
Edited by GPH on Saturday 4th July 19:10
TCX said:
Skyedriver said:
TCX said:
ALawson said:
TCX said:
Boo hoo
Painful to read,was someone twisting your arm?
Painful to read,was someone twisting your arm?
Boohoo is that a tip?
GPH said:
https://twitter.com/JamesBenamor/status/1278242625...
It's all here on his Twitter, The previous CEO has just left so Benamor says he is going to sue him for loss of share value now he cant hid behind Amigo's lawyers.
It's all really personal to him obviously as he started the company, so revenge is what he wants and logic goes out the window sometimes.
But as I said, it looks like it will work out ok for him in the long run as he has been selling 1% of his 61% for 10 days at around 5p but now has 50 days left selling at above the 20p offer from Tuesday onwards?
In January it was 70p before all the arguing started and how many companies have had their bank account increase rather than decrease in the last 3 months - not many but they have even though they have not been lending to new clients since April
My only concern is that even with 49% holding he still has effectively a majority stake as the other 51% is scattered across the universe.It's all here on his Twitter, The previous CEO has just left so Benamor says he is going to sue him for loss of share value now he cant hid behind Amigo's lawyers.
It's all really personal to him obviously as he started the company, so revenge is what he wants and logic goes out the window sometimes.
But as I said, it looks like it will work out ok for him in the long run as he has been selling 1% of his 61% for 10 days at around 5p but now has 50 days left selling at above the 20p offer from Tuesday onwards?
In January it was 70p before all the arguing started and how many companies have had their bank account increase rather than decrease in the last 3 months - not many but they have even though they have not been lending to new clients since April
Edited by GPH on Saturday 4th July 19:01
SimonTheSailor said:
If we're all so sure that it's going to be 20p so soon - why aren't all the big financial people buying everything if it's a certainty ?
I personally don't think it will or if it does, it'll come crashing back down very quickly when everyone in at sub 15p takes profit. The second I see 20p, I'll be out and very happy regardless but even if we see 17p/18p on Monday I'll be amazed.
Skyedriver said:
TCX said:
Skyedriver said:
TCX said:
ALawson said:
TCX said:
Boo hoo
Painful to read,was someone twisting your arm?
Painful to read,was someone twisting your arm?
Boohoo is that a tip?
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