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[klmhcp]

DonkeyApple said:

avinalarf said:

1) what is GOOG ?

Just do a quick search on Google.

[DonkeyApple]

avinalarf said:

3) Primark,you agree,is a "great business", and based on my knowledge of retailing why should I not buy it ?

What if the market is of the view that it is an even greater business than you believe it to be but your view is the correct one? If you're correct then you'll lose money.

[walm]

avinalarf said:

3) Primark,you agree,is a "great business", and based on my knowledge of retailing why should I not buy it ?
4) What is it worth ? .....well surely the markets and profits and performance will decide that..

Question 4 answers Question 3.

Fundamentally, your strategy isn't completely terrible.
I would far rather own good businesses than awful ones.

But you are completely ignoring: valuation, sentiment and expectations.

If everybody expects a great business to do well, with growing profits and solid performance - THEN THE STOCK WON'T MOVE.

All those expectations are built in to the CURRENT STOCK PRICE.

You need a disconnect to move the stock.

That's what you are missing.

[avinalarf]

klmhcp said:

I'm not jumping through your hoops, I think individual stock picking (for price gains rather than divis etc) for amateurs like us is a total blind gamble - I'm just saying that you appear to think you know something the market doesn't.

If you're buying stock because you think the price is lower than it should be, you are saying that you know more than every other investor out there. I put it to you that you don't and that you are guessing.

No hoops.....I have laid my cards on the table .....if you decide not to contribute that's up to you.
I don't consider that I'm gambling.
I do understand I am taking a risk.
The criteria I am using ,although different from other posters,and I accept unconventional, is very specific and only on companies that have a business model I "understand ".
Infallible,of course not,if I based all my business decisions on always being right I'd not have a business.
I get it right the great majority of the time.
BTW would you be willing to tell me if you have ever run a successful retail business ?

[dom9]

But you need to know what the other sellers/buyers have priced in, as others have pointed out; a good business may already have a 20% profit increase priced in. So, if it only makes say 15%, it's still a good business but you'd be asking why the share price has dropped after such good profits.

You need to factor in not just the balance sheet, projections etc but also what the market is saying and those people will be looking at technicals and other factors. So, you need a more rounded picture of the market, not just a snapshot of the business, if that makes sense?

I haven't been playing the markets for the last year but, when I did, and it was part of our business, it was almost full time, despite not being day trading.

[avinalarf]

DonkeyApple said:

avinalarf said:

1) what is GOOG ?

Just do a quick search on Google.

I did just that......
Apparently GOOG is a new psychedelic drug that greatly enhances the ability of investors to make correct predictions of share values.
Ahhh,so that's what Walm is on,now we know his little secret.

[avinalarf]

dom9 said:

But you need to know what the other sellers/buyers have priced in, as others have pointed out; a good business may already have a 20% profit increase priced in. So, if it only makes say 15%, it's still a good business but you'd be asking why the share price has dropped after such good profits.

You need to factor in not just the balance sheet, projections etc but also what the market is saying and those people will be looking at technicals and other factors. So, you need a more rounded picture of the market, not just a snapshot of the business, if that makes sense?

I haven't been playing the markets for the last year but, when I did, and it was part of our business, it was almost full time, despite not being day trading.

FWIW.....Primark is expanding into Europe and the USA .
I have visited a couple of their European stores .....same format and busy.
The £ to $ is obviously affecting the purchase price of goods putting pressure on margins.
Market is optimistic but bears in mind present £ to $ rate making goods more expensive and pressure on margins.
I'm thinking about cashing in and taking a profit,for now.

[klmhcp]

avinalarf said:

dom9 said:

But you need to know what the other sellers/buyers have priced in, as others have pointed out; a good business may already have a 20% profit increase priced in. So, if it only makes say 15%, it's still a good business but you'd be asking why the share price has dropped after such good profits.

You need to factor in not just the balance sheet, projections etc but also what the market is saying and those people will be looking at technicals and other factors. So, you need a more rounded picture of the market, not just a snapshot of the business, if that makes sense?

I haven't been playing the markets for the last year but, when I did, and it was part of our business, it was almost full time, despite not being day trading.

FWIW.....Primark is expanding into Europe and the USA .
I have visited a couple of their European stores .....same format and busy.
The £ to $ is obviously affecting the purchase price of goods putting pressure on margins.
Market is optimistic but bears in mind present £ to $ rate making goods more expensive and pressure on margins.
I'm thinking about cashing in and taking a profit,for now.

YOU ARE NOT THE ONLY PERSON WHO KNOWS THIS!

[avinalarf]

klmhcp said:

YOU ARE NOT THE ONLY PERSON WHO KNOWS THIS!

Listen fella,one liners won't cut it for me .
Unlike other contributors that have pedigree,I have no idea of your credentials and whether you have anything worthwhile to add.
I called you out on a previous post,you ignored it.
Sorry to be brusque but either you put up or......
BTW are those capitals written in red or green ink ?

Edited by avinalarf on Friday 9th September 13:41

[walm]

avinalarf said:

klmhcp said:

YOU ARE NOT THE ONLY PERSON WHO KNOWS THIS!

Unlike other contributors that have pedigree,I have no idea of your credentials and whether you have anything worthwhile to add.

He's not wrong though.

You need a variant perception.
Something the market disagrees with.

Everyone knows Primark is a great business. If it keeps delivering as a great business should then why on earth would the stock go up?

If I were you I would be looking at UK focused retailers.

If you had noticed how low expectations were for cycling LFL in Halfords and that the stores were packed during July and the good weather, you could have made a bit on their recent beat.

Or take a hard look at Kingfisher (B&Q+Screwfix). They have some punchy cost savings targets - do you think they can do it?

These are more contentious stocks where the answer isn't so obvious, IMHO.

[avinalarf]

walm said:

avinalarf said:

klmhcp said:

YOU ARE NOT THE ONLY PERSON WHO KNOWS THIS!

Unlike other contributors that have pedigree,I have no idea of your credentials and whether you have anything worthwhile to add.

He's not wrong though.

You need a variant perception.
Something the market disagrees with.

Everyone knows Primark is a great business. If it keeps delivering as a great business should then why on earth would the stock go up?

If I were you I would be looking at UK focused retailers.

If you had noticed how low expectations were for cycling LFL in Halfords and that the stores were packed during July and the good weather, you could have made a bit on their recent beat.

Or take a hard look at Kingfisher (B&Q+Screwfix). They have some punchy cost savings targets - do you think they can do it?

These are more contentious stocks where the answer isn't so obvious, IMHO.

I didn't say he was wrong however caustic one liners irritate me.
Walm ,you and other posters take the time and trouble to extrapolate and add worthwhile input to the debate.
I note your comments about the other shares and will investigate.
Halfords is an interesting one,I haven't followed the share recently but a supplier of mine and Halfords tells me that surprisingly the cycling side of the business,clothing and equipment,not bikes have slowed down over the past season generally.
Also I've noticed the mushrooming of cycle specialist shops recently that offer a very focussed product.
I thought I was playing fairly safe wth ABF ,that and the fact that I believe I bought at a fair price that left room for a bit of an increase.
So far I've been proved correct, however I'm the first to admit my stock pickings require a lot more knowledge into the workings of the markets.

[klmhcp]

It's not caustic one liners - I've taken the time to reply on a couple of occasions but you don't listen to what's being said by 3 or 4 of us hence I posted it in caps.

I'm actually trying to help you understand but you've got a very strange way about you. Good luck with it!

[klmhcp]

avinalarf said:

BTW would you be willing to tell me if you have ever run a successful retail business ?

Not retail but I've run a successful B2B company for the last 15 years. Not that it's relevant to this at all.

[avinalarf]

walm said:

avinalarf said:

klmhcp said:

YOU ARE NOT THE ONLY PERSON WHO KNOWS THIS!

Unlike other contributors that have pedigree,I have no idea of your credentials and whether you have anything worthwhile to add.

He's not wrong though.

You need a variant perception.
Something the market disagrees with.

Everyone knows Primark is a great business. If it keeps delivering as a great business should then why on earth would the stock go up?

If I were you I would be looking at UK focused retailers.

If you had noticed how low expectations were for cycling LFL in Halfords and that the stores were packed during July and the good weather, you could have made a bit on their recent beat.

Or take a hard look at Kingfisher (B&Q+Screwfix). They have some punchy cost savings targets - do you think they can do it?

These are more contentious stocks where the answer isn't so obvious, IMHO.

I didn't say he was wrong however caustic one liners irritate me.
Walm ,you and other posters take the time and trouble to extrapolate and add worthwhile input to the debate.
I note your comments about the other shares and will investigate.
Halfords is an interesting one,I haven't followed the share recently but a supplier of mine and Halfords tells me that surprisingly the cycling side of the business,clothing and equipment,not bikes have slowed down over the past season generally.
Also I've noticed the mushrooming of cycle specialist shops recently that offer a very focussed product.
I thought I was playing fairly safe wth ABF ,that and the fact that I believe I bought at a fair price that left room for a bit of an increase.
So far I've been proved correct, however I'm the first to admit my stock pickings require a lot more knowledge into the workings of the markets.

[dom9]

klmhcp is correct though - regurgitating news that is in the public domain basically means it's already priced in, one way or another.

You basically need to bet (or have knowledge that others don't) whether or not they can hit targets/ make plans work/ have missed something unforeseen etc.

You make money by selling when the price is high, because you believe it's going to crash when others don't or buy when it's low because you know it's going to explode... when others don't.

If the FT tells you a company is about to take off, then a lot of that is likely to be priced in (less the risk it doesn't happen) and it's already too late.

I'm perhaps being oversimplistic but I hope you see what I mean.

Look at the Big Short; they did research that others didn't and found a fairly major issue that no one else saw. That wasn't priced in already.

Actually, I know a lot of people with very similar stories who did see the Lehmans event happening and cleared their positions before Armageddon but that's a story for another time. They still make more money in the city than they'd earn from book sales (probably)

Knowing retail is as far from understanding the workings of the stock market (if anyone really does) as being a mechanic. Prices are based on sentiment, feeling, deals the public don't get to see and 'professionals' get a lot of this information before the public.

Read twinturboz posts throughout this thread as he deals with technicals, discusses the volatility of certain stocks a lot and is a valuable contributor. What you'll find is that there is money to be made by 'using' the volatility and 'betting' against views of others.

I'd guess someone like TT has made money on stocks such as Tesla on the buy and sell sides. That's despite it making no profit and being horrifically overvalued, to the casual investor...

[avinalarf]

klmhcp said:

It's not caustic one liners - I've taken the time to reply on a couple of occasions but you don't listen to what's being said by 3 or 4 of us hence I posted it in caps.

I'm actually trying to help you understand but you've got a very strange way about you. Good luck with it!

On the contrary.
If you read my posts you will find that I have thanked the contributors for their helpful comments and fully acknowledge that I have plenty to learn about the intricacies of stock picking.
I have however also tried to explain on what basis I purchased ABF shares.
I accept that my reasons may be naive to more experienced stock pickers.
I have taken on board all the comments,including yours,and it's certainly given me food for thought and a lot of useful observations.
I do thank you and acknowledge where you have taken the time to explain yourself.
No reason or wish for you and me to fall out, so big hug from me,I'll even let you buy me a drink,if we ever meet.

[avinalarf]

klmhcp said:

avinalarf said:

BTW would you be willing to tell me if you have ever run a successful retail business ?

Not retail but I've run a successful B2B company for the last 15 years. Not that it's relevant to this at all.

To me it's important as it gives me a perspective as to who I'm dealing with and where they may be coming from.
As an example,I have used an excellent accountant for many years but he wouldn't be able,or wish,to run my business.
Different skills ,horses for courses.

[avinalarf]

dom9 said:

klmhcp is correct though - regurgitating news that is in the public domain basically means it's already priced in, one way or another.

You basically need to bet (or have knowledge that others don't) whether or not they can hit targets/ make plans work/ have missed something unforeseen etc.

You make money by selling when the price is high, because you believe it's going to crash when others don't or buy when it's low because you know it's going to explode... when others don't.

If the FT tells you a company is about to take off, then a lot of that is likely to be priced in (less the risk it doesn't happen) and it's already too late.

I'm perhaps being oversimplistic but I hope you see what I mean.

Look at the Big Short; they did research that others didn't and found a fairly major issue that no one else saw. That wasn't priced in already.

Actually, I know a lot of people with very similar stories who did see the Lehmans event happening and cleared their positions before Armageddon but that's a story for another time. They still make more money in the city than they'd earn from book sales (probably)

Knowing retail is as far from understanding the workings of the stock market (if anyone really does) as being a mechanic. Prices are based on sentiment, feeling, deals the public don't get to see and 'professionals' get a lot of this information before the public.

Read twinturboz posts throughout this thread as he deals with technicals, discusses the volatility of certain stocks a lot and is a valuable contributor. What you'll find is that there is money to be made by 'using' the volatility and 'betting' against views of others.

I'd guess someone like TT has made money on stocks such as Tesla on the buy and sell sides. That's despite it making no profit and being horrifically overvalued, to the casual investor...

I am aware of much of what you are saying but nevertheless thank you for your post.
Re. Primark and expansion into Eurpe and USA,well although common knowledge there's no definite saying how this will turn out,especially in the USA which has been a very difficult nut to crack for many a successful UK retailer.
So one takes a view how that might pan out.
As for TT contributions and technicalities of the markets,well that's something I certainly need to gen up on.

[DonkeyApple]

dom9 said:

klmhcp is correct though - regurgitating news that is in the public domain basically means it's already priced in, one way or another.

You basically need to bet (or have knowledge that others don't) whether or not they can hit targets/ make plans work/ have missed something unforeseen etc.

You make money by selling when the price is high, because you believe it's going to crash when others don't or buy when it's low because you know it's going to explode... when others don't.

If the FT tells you a company is about to take off, then a lot of that is likely to be priced in (less the risk it doesn't happen) and it's already too late.

I'm perhaps being oversimplistic but I hope you see what I mean.

Look at the Big Short; they did research that others didn't and found a fairly major issue that no one else saw. That wasn't priced in already.

Actually, I know a lot of people with very similar stories who did see the Lehmans event happening and cleared their positions before Armageddon but that's a story for another time. They still make more money in the city than they'd earn from book sales (probably)

Knowing retail is as far from understanding the workings of the stock market (if anyone really does) as being a mechanic. Prices are based on sentiment, feeling, deals the public don't get to see and 'professionals' get a lot of this information before the public.

Read twinturboz posts throughout this thread as he deals with technicals, discusses the volatility of certain stocks a lot and is a valuable contributor. What you'll find is that there is money to be made by 'using' the volatility and 'betting' against views of others.

I'd guess someone like TT has made money on stocks such as Tesla on the buy and sell sides. That's despite it making no profit and being horrifically overvalued, to the casual investor...

Mind you, I think the Big Short is a little disingenuous . I recall being in LA long before they claim to have discovered the issue and people were talking openly about the mortgage shop scams and how no one would be able to pay. They were obviously the only people to put their money where their mouths were though.

[dom9]

DonkeyApple said:

Mind you, I think the Big Short is a little disingenuous . I recall being in LA long before they claim to have discovered the issue and people were talking openly about the mortgage shop scams and how no one would be able to pay. They were obviously the only people to put their money where their mouths were though.

That's what I find 'odd' about it all... A lot of people seemed to 'know' but not many acted. My buddy (senior at a Swiss bank) organised a conference call with one of his research guys who'd apparently 'found' this... Only one other guy turned up.

People just didn't want to know.

Anyway... Setting up my own office next week so I can see me become more active on here again.