What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

[ATM]

Nat Gas is looking very cheap. Tempting to load up and wait it out.

[NuckyThompson]

Hemo clinical hold lifted. Hopefully a good rate move today as this pharma transits into the clinical stages.

[Adam.]

Gargamel said:

I am in TRX already, sadly they have been flat for me so far, but I agree they have good potential.

Me too, hopefully it holds these gains and stays in the 60s

ORR - sick of AIM miners and being spiked but will investigate

[egomeister]

NuckyThompson said:

Hemo clinical hold lifted. Hopefully a good rate move today as this pharma transits into the clinical stages.

Look like its settling at about +20%, but I'd fully expect then to be trying to get a substantial fundraise away off the back of this news as there probably isn't a lot of cash left at the moment.

[NuckyThompson]

I’m wondering if there will be more investment from the likes of prevail. I think Hemo have enough money for the year but to keep the clinical ball rolling costs money.

Share price tracked back to just over 4p which I think is the absolute base of this share now. I expect the price to tick up towards 10p through the year. Paticularly if we get some positive news on the CBR pipeline too

[bigbaddom]

I sold 20% of my Hemo holding 4 days before the news broke at 3.90.

I had told myself I would hold the remainder basically until this end of time or until they get bought out.

A bit gutted I didn’t wait and sell them at 6p rather than 3.90 but that’s life.

The fact it’s come back to 4p doesnt fill me with joy.
Sure the well known sell the news, but you would have thought it would stay slightly positive.

I think 10p is an age off and am not fully convinced we don’t go back to 2.50.

The 6p investment wasn’t really buying in at 6p either. They have options at 6p but they could be getting 4 x what they would normally charge for their involvement to make the strike price that high.

Just my thoughts, as I said I have a chunky holding and will keep them but the lse board gets on my nerves. All these super positive posts and some super negative admittedly but no balance and everyone just slates one another.

[egomeister]

NuckyThompson said:

I’m wondering if there will be more investment from the likes of prevail. I think Hemo have enough money for the year but to keep the clinical ball rolling costs money.

Share price tracked back to just over 4p which I think is the absolute base of this share now. I expect the price to tick up towards 10p through the year. Paticularly if we get some positive news on the CBR pipeline too

I had a quick look at this again the other day. At 30 Jun they had £3.1m in cash, having burned £4.3m in the previous 6 months. They've done a couple of small raises in H2 last year, but realistically I don't he how there is any money in the bank at the moment. If they don't place before Easter at a chunky discount I'll be amazed.

[asfault]

This thread is interesting in another way.

It completely died when the markets were all down and heading downwards,
But with rising markets and record S&P 500 it has come alive again.

[egomeister]

asfault said:

This thread is interesting in another way.

It completely died when the markets were all down and heading downwards,
But with rising markets and record S&P 500 it has come alive again.

Given so many of the stocks which could be considered gambles need money its not surprising that attention increases when the PR spivvery goes into overdrive The lockdowns gave many a chanced to dive into this stuff more too.

It's interesting to see how some of the names have performed since back in the day. I set up a watchlist of some of the smallcrap companies that got attention in this thread (unfortunately not with prices, so its a bit harder to see how the performance has been). There's a good list that are no longer trading or suspended pending death like Deepverge, Cineworld, Remote Monitored/Nanosynth & Inland homes, and plenty that have seen massive share price destruction (Eurasia, SYME, Amigo, Synairgen etc etc.

It would be interesting to see how many companies mentioned have actually sustained some kind of increase!

[Chris Type R]

egomeister said:

It would be interesting to see how many companies mentioned have actually sustained some kind of increase!

Many of the recovery / dividend plays have done not too badly. There were a handful which would probably have done less well, had it not been for takeovers.

[Mallard126]

Speaking of gambles, one that hasn't paid off for me (yet?) is Mulberry.

I bought a few grand's worth in December in the hope that Mike Ashley might have a pop at taking over the whole business. He currently owns about 38% of it and was knocked back for a seat on the board last year so I wouldn't be surprised if he decides to launch a takeover bid. It's gone backwards a bit since I bought but I'll hold on in the hope that my theory turns out to be somewhat accurate.

Oh and another gamble that I made a couple of weeks ago was selling some of my AIM stock to invest in Sainsbury's as I thought the drop after their results was massively overdone. They've gone back another 6% or so since I bought. That's one that I'm confident in for the longer term though. Asda's owners have fallen out with one another, staff are unhappy and there are strike rumours. Morrisons have been a basket case of a business for several years and have sold off their forecourts to keep the lights on. Aldi & Lidl's growth and store opening plans have slowed right down and JS are gaining market share. I reckon over the next couple of years they'll be well up on current levels and they'll be paying reasonable divis along the way.

[Chris Type R]

Mallard126 said:

Speaking of gambles, one that hasn't paid off for me (yet?) is Mulberry.

Looking at the charts it looks like they're back to lock-down lows.

[NuckyThompson]

egomeister said:

I had a quick look at this again the other day. At 30 Jun they had £3.1m in cash, having burned £4.3m in the previous 6 months. They've done a couple of small raises in H2 last year, but realistically I don't he how there is any money in the bank at the moment. If they don't place before Easter at a chunky discount I'll be amazed.

Thinking more and more that perhaps there’s something going on behind the scenes, fantastic RNS but surely they’ve had months to figure out funding on the basis of going clinical? Prevail invested at a premium of double the current share price so you’d think Hemo would have something lined up via them or a bigger pharma.

Lots don’t seem to have faith in the CEO in terms of business sense though so maybe that’s it. But I honestly expected after that RNS landing that we’d see a stead move upwards throughout the year. Perhaps the markets expect some reassurance from Hemo of how they’re going to fund things though and The CEO hasn’t anticipated that. Will be disappointed without some other RNS with a plan mapped out this week though

[egomeister]

NuckyThompson said:

Thinking more and more that perhaps there’s something going on behind the scenes, fantastic RNS but surely they’ve had months to figure out funding on the basis of going clinical? Prevail invested at a premium of double the current share price so you’d think Hemo would have something lined up via them or a bigger pharma.

Lots don’t seem to have faith in the CEO in terms of business sense though so maybe that’s it. But I honestly expected after that RNS landing that we’d see a stead move upwards throughout the year. Perhaps the markets expect some reassurance from Hemo of how they’re going to fund things though and The CEO hasn’t anticipated that. Will be disappointed without some other RNS with a plan mapped out this week though

I'm not sure where the line is between talking to people about future funding and then subsequently the active pursuit of it. (at what point do these people/entities get made insiders?)

Looking at the prevail deal a bit more I don't really put too much emphasis on the premium. They've put in a relatively small about (not at a notifiable level, so could have sold out already), and the deal was combined with putting future work on the trials through their sister company so they could be doing very well out of it the further things progress. This seems to be a fairly standard way of doing a deal for Prevail, and makes a lot of sense as they can derisk easily and keep plenty of upside.

The slide in share price since the pop from the news has been dreadful. It wouldn't surprise me if they are sounding out for a placing right now.

[NuckyThompson]

I think you may be right, a shame as they’ve had plenty of time to secure funding rather than have to do a placing.

Another positive RNS this morning on CBR but this will probably somehow still take a downturn lol

[egomeister]

They didn't really have anything to secure funding on until they got the approval to move to P1, so I'm not at all surprised it wasn't lined up.

Cynically I would say the announcement today was timed to help a placing, in which case it was probably reasonably successful as its sitting at +20% right now. I've not really looked at HEMO for a few years, so how significant would you say todays news is? Given its all pre-clinical work I'd probably consider it a nice research study and not much more - debateable if its worth a ~£6m+ jump in the share price

[NuckyThompson]

I’m inclined to agree with you on the fund raise,

Todays news I would have thought would attract attention of big pharma though as essentially it’s suggesting you can attack diseases like Covid without an injection. It’s big big news if Hemo had finding in place or outside support.

If and RNS came out now with an injection of cash from prevail or AZ for example then I’d be getting really excited and think we’d be seeing these 3 figure rises in one day that the LSE bored mad heads bark in about daily

[T_S_M]

Gargamel said:

PHE - after a staggering decline - including 10% further today alone - shares trade at 0.0049p

I have taken an Olympic Pool sized bath here, but I note Hargreaves Lansdowne own 21% so if your AIM fund is fked - its likely that HL bought PHE with some of your cash

My BEP still at 0.0292

Full year 23 results coming soon, if you have 100 quid to spare you too can buy nearly 30,000 shares. Skys the limit on this one

This isn't a gamble, its a one way ticket to Millionaires Row.

DYOR

I bought some shares in PHE about 3 days before the price plummeted

I've tried cutting my losses a few times where there has been a price spike but they never sell! Low volume I guess?

ETA: When are the full year 23 results due to be released?

Edited by T_S_M on Wednesday 14th February 13:59

[Condi]

ATM said:

Nat Gas is looking very cheap. Tempting to load up and wait it out.

On what basis? Cheap, because it's less than it has been for the last 2 years, or cheap because you think it should be higher?

Super mild winter, very high stocks all across Europe, German industrial demand likely permanently damaged, and a host of new LNG projects coming online over the next 2 years. The only thing holding it up at the moment is next year's winter!

[Adam.]

Is Luke still here?

Must be hurting but ABAT looking tempting but not sure when they get to revenue and break even