What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

[Gargamel]

PHE apparently June 26

I wonder if that’s the trading update and 23 financials are before ?

[WindyCommon]

As a private investor nowadays after a career in fund management, I have to confess to a twisted fascination with the “LondonSouthEast” lse.co.uk website. I know I shouldn’t look, but I just can’t help myself sometimes. It’s a heady cocktail of misunderstanding and misinformation, enlivened by some transparent “influencers” at work. A guilty pleasure if ever there was one.

[asfault]

WindyCommon said:

As a private investor nowadays after a career in fund management, I have to confess to a twisted fascination with the “LondonSouthEast” lse.co.uk website. I know I shouldn’t look, but I just can’t help myself sometimes. It’s a heady cocktail of misunderstanding and misinformation, enlivened by some transparent “influencers” at work. A guilty pleasure if ever there was one.

Sometimes there can be financial info that's easier to find there than trawling through company reports.

Have you looked at the yahoo finance equivalent. Jesus it makes lse look dignified.

[egomeister]

WindyCommon said:

As a private investor nowadays after a career in fund management, I have to confess to a twisted fascination with the “LondonSouthEast” lse.co.uk website. I know I shouldn’t look, but I just can’t help myself sometimes. It’s a heady cocktail of misunderstanding and misinformation, enlivened by some transparent “influencers” at work. A guilty pleasure if ever there was one.

It's one of the best contra indicators around

[WindyCommon]

egomeister said:

WindyCommon said:

As a private investor nowadays after a career in fund management, I have to confess to a twisted fascination with the “LondonSouthEast” lse.co.uk website. I know I shouldn’t look, but I just can’t help myself sometimes. It’s a heady cocktail of misunderstanding and misinformation, enlivened by some transparent “influencers” at work. A guilty pleasure if ever there was one.

It's one of the best contra indicators around

Right, that’s it. I’m going to launch #ESL, the Inverse LSE ETF. #ESL will short the top 20 shares featured in the LSE “Hot Chat Topics Within The Last 7 Days” list. Equal weighted (so 20 short positions x 5% each) and rebalanced weekly.

Initial portfolio is:

Helium One (HE1)
Hemogenyx (HEMO)
COPL (COPL)
Synergia Energy (SYN)
Quantum Block (QBT)
Superdry (SDRY)
Gstechnologies (GST)
Vast Res (VAST)
SolGold (SOLG)
Avacta Group (AVCT)
Thg (THG)
Renalytix Plc (RENX)
Premier African Minerals (PREM)
Red Rock Resources (RRR)
Eurasia Mining (EUA)
Lloyds (LLOY)
Nanoco (NANO)
Alien Metals (UFO)
Greatland Gold (GGP)
Argo Blockchain (ARB)


Looking for seed investors. Who’s in?

[Cupid-stunt]

Condi said:

ATM said:

Nat Gas is looking very cheap. Tempting to load up and wait it out.

On what basis? Cheap, because it's less than it has been for the last 2 years, or cheap because you think it should be higher?

Super mild winter, very high stocks all across Europe, German industrial demand likely permanently damaged, and a host of new LNG projects coming online over the next 2 years. The only thing holding it up at the moment is next year's winter!

Nailed it.

The comment about next winter is very considered.

We have had 2 'mild' winters - which in turn increases the next one's possibility of being more severe (unless global warming has permanently taken hold).
The current price is being propped up by that and the possible concerns of another major outage.
Permanent demand destruction is reducing the need for gas, higher renewable energy sources are displacing some elec/ gas requirements, China economy slowing is not helping.
EU gas storage levels are more than 60% full and we are heading towards the end of hte 'winter' period.
Weather outlook is not considerably below seasonal norm.
I'm seriously struggling ot find any bullish factors.... Maybe the Ukranian transit agreement for Russian gas, but that's clutching at straws I'd say.


If you have taken a long posiiton in Nat Gas, I hope it is long dated and you have stop losses in place ....

Not wanting to p iss on your chips but I'm not seeing it the same way as you are.

[egomeister]

WindyCommon said:

egomeister said:

WindyCommon said:

As a private investor nowadays after a career in fund management, I have to confess to a twisted fascination with the “LondonSouthEast” lse.co.uk website. I know I shouldn’t look, but I just can’t help myself sometimes. It’s a heady cocktail of misunderstanding and misinformation, enlivened by some transparent “influencers” at work. A guilty pleasure if ever there was one.

It's one of the best contra indicators around

Right, that’s it. I’m going to launch #ESL, the Inverse LSE ETF. #ESL will short the top 20 shares featured in the LSE “Hot Chat Topics Within The Last 7 Days” list. Equal weighted (so 20 short positions x 5% each) and rebalanced weekly.

Initial portfolio is:

Helium One (HE1)
Hemogenyx (HEMO)
COPL (COPL)
Synergia Energy (SYN)
Quantum Block (QBT)
Superdry (SDRY)
Gstechnologies (GST)
Vast Res (VAST)
SolGold (SOLG)
Avacta Group (AVCT)
Thg (THG)
Renalytix Plc (RENX)
Premier African Minerals (PREM)
Red Rock Resources (RRR)
Eurasia Mining (EUA)
Lloyds (LLOY)
Nanoco (NANO)
Alien Metals (UFO)
Greatland Gold (GGP)
Argo Blockchain (ARB)


Looking for seed investors. Who’s in?

[Adam.]

SYME too surely?

[dingg]

WindyCommon said:

Right, that’s it. I’m going to launch #ESL, the Inverse LSE ETF. #ESL will short the top 20 shares featured in the LSE “Hot Chat Topics Within The Last 7 Days” list. Equal weighted (so 20 short positions x 5% each) and rebalanced weekly.

Initial portfolio is:

Helium One (HE1)
Hemogenyx (HEMO)
COPL (COPL)
Synergia Energy (SYN)
Quantum Block (QBT)
Superdry (SDRY)
Gstechnologies (GST)
Vast Res (VAST)
SolGold (SOLG)
Avacta Group (AVCT)
Thg (THG)
Renalytix Plc (RENX)
Premier African Minerals (PREM)
Red Rock Resources (RRR)
Eurasia Mining (EUA)
Lloyds (LLOY)
Nanoco (NANO)
Alien Metals (UFO)
Greatland Gold (GGP)
Argo Blockchain (ARB)


Looking for seed investors. Who’s in?

Me for one, thg and lloy interesting, rest of them basket cases

[Giantt]

Don't forget the 'Mexican' with it's current 100% spread ?

[NowWatchThisDrive]

Surely you'll be offering a 3x daily leveraged version?

[WindyCommon]

Model portfolio is up and running, and I'll post a snapshot (& perhaps some commentary) here when I remember / can be bothered. Don't expect me to produce regular weekly rebalances, this is strictly JFF! I'll probably just let this initial portfolio run as it is until I/we are bored...

I allocated a nominal £100k evenly across the 20 holdings, using yesterday's closing prices.

Remember that the fund is short, so profits are losses etc

Some big moves already. The fund as a whole is UP 2.3%, a decent start...

Decent contributions on the first day from:
Renalytix AI -23% on poor half-year results
Synergia Energy -20% on placing speculation
SolGold -14% on poor half-year results
Premier African Minerals -14% on news of a placing


Undermined by:
Helium One Global +28% on heavy-duty ramping, unsubstantiated rumours of a leak etc etc

Edited by WindyCommon on Thursday 15th February 15:43

[Luke.]

Adam. said:

Is Luke still here?

Must be hurting but ABAT looking tempting but not sure when they get to revenue and break even

Hey Adam.

Pop in every now and then.

Going to double my ABML holding. Just waiting for some cash to come in.

Will be nice to dramatically bring down my average.

[Gargamel]

WindyCommon said:

Model portfolio is up and running, and I'll post a snapshot (& perhaps some commentary) here when I remember / can be bothered. Don't expect me to produce regular weekly rebalances, this is strictly JFF! I'll probably just let this initial portfolio run as it is until I/we are bored...

I allocated a nominal £100k evenly across the 20 holdings, using yesterday's closing prices.

Remember that the fund is short, so profits are losses etc

Some big moves already. The fund as a whole is UP 2.3%, a decent start...

Decent contributions on the first day from:
Renalytix AI -23% on poor half-year results
Synergia Energy -20% on placing speculation
SolGold -14% on poor half-year results
Premier African Minerals -14% on news of a placing


Undermined by:
Helium One Global +28% on heavy-duty ramping, unsubstantiated rumours of a leak etc etc

Edited by WindyCommon on Thursday 15th February 15:43

This is great work !

[Adam.]

Luke. said:

Going to double my ABML holding. Just waiting for some cash to come in.

Will be nice to dramatically bring down my average.

brave man, can you give me your opinion on when revenue / profit is likely, is the site finished?

[Luke.]

Adam. said:

Luke. said:

Going to double my ABML holding. Just waiting for some cash to come in.

Will be nice to dramatically bring down my average.

brave man, can you give me your opinion on when revenue / profit is likely, is the site finished?

Their latest quarterly report was filed just yesterday. Had expected revenue as they're now producing black mass in the recycling plant. But bugger all right now.

RE the mining/extraction side of things they're sitting on the largest lithium deposit in North America. Though its going to be a while before that's up and running.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/american-...

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/american-...

Even without incorporation of improved data from the third drill program, the TFLP demonstrates attractive after-tax cash flows:
Net Present Value of $4.41 billion @10% discount rate
Internal Rate of Return of 65.8%
2.4-year payback period of initial investment

Make of all this what you will. Though at an investor presentation, Ryan Melsert, the CEO/CTO said he was in discussion with all the auto manufacturers.

This is well worth a watch from a couple of weeks ago. I'd also value your opinion on what you make of it all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGMBf4cHevA

Edited by Luke. on Thursday 15th February 17:18

[asfault]

I'm about 2% away from double bagging on my Palintir shares. Currently it's my best performer by miles.
Usually I take half out at this stage but I promised myself I would wait until S&p inclusion before doing it.

[egomeister]

NuckyThompson said:

I’m inclined to agree with you on the fund raise,

Todays news I would have thought would attract attention of big pharma though as essentially it’s suggesting you can attack diseases like Covid without an injection. It’s big big news if Hemo had finding in place or outside support.

If and RNS came out now with an injection of cash from prevail or AZ for example then I’d be getting really excited and think we’d be seeing these 3 figure rises in one day that the LSE bored mad heads bark in about daily

Another RNS this morning. Timing definitely feels like they are trying to bump the price up for a raise.

[dingg]

Gargamel said:

WindyCommon said:

Model portfolio is up and running, and I'll post a snapshot (& perhaps some commentary) here when I remember / can be bothered. Don't expect me to produce regular weekly rebalances, this is strictly JFF! I'll probably just let this initial portfolio run as it is until I/we are bored...

I allocated a nominal £100k evenly across the 20 holdings, using yesterday's closing prices.

Remember that the fund is short, so profits are losses etc

Some big moves already. The fund as a whole is UP 2.3%, a decent start...

Decent contributions on the first day from:
Renalytix AI -23% on poor half-year results
Synergia Energy -20% on placing speculation
SolGold -14% on poor half-year results
Premier African Minerals -14% on news of a placing


Undermined by:
Helium One Global +28% on heavy-duty ramping, unsubstantiated rumours of a leak etc etc

Edited by WindyCommon on Thursday 15th February 15:43

This is great work !

Sure is, well done!!

[NuckyThompson]

egomeister said:

Another RNS this morning. Timing definitely feels like they are trying to bump the price up for a raise.

Unfortunately I think so, with all the recent news this share should be flying now, the only hope is that the delays are because agreements with either prevail or big pharma are happening in the background but I don’t think the CEO is capable of pulling that off from what we’ve seen over the years,