Stock exchange share values flying up

Stock exchange share values flying up

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BIRMA

Original Poster:

3,813 posts

196 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
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Has anyone else noticed the gains in share values this week? My modest portfolio which has yet to reach a six figure sum has gained £1800 from the 3/3/2013 to the 6/3/2013 not bad returns really.
A note shares can go up as well as down, last year in October my foray into shares looked a really bad idea in the form of minus £15K on the value of my shares.

davepoth

29,395 posts

201 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
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The market is galloping ahead of the rest of the economy. That's going to be bad news at some point; most analysts think it's due to the poor returns from bonds. The stock market will overheat quite quickly if this carries on too long, and we all know what that means.

BIRMA

Original Poster:

3,813 posts

196 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
quotequote all
Yes, watch it daily and get out quick if it hits the fan, but at least you can do that with shares.

hornet

6,333 posts

252 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
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I must admit that despite only having a modest amount sat in a shares ISA, I'm getting that "should probably sell here" gut feeling. I told myself if the FTSE went above 6400* I'd bail out of the funds I have, as they're all showing useful profits. Tempted to sell up and just sit on the cash and see if things pull back, then maybe just drip feed back in if/when they do. Missed a trick through being greedy when gold and silver were at their highs, so promised myself I'd be more disciplined next time.

  • Arbitrary point that just happens to roughly coincide with profits hitting 10%

ringram

14,700 posts

250 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
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Im going to take a bit out and into cash.
But not quite yet, a little bit of rebalancing and set a limit sell order in place.

But I too think its a bit full of hot air.
That being said, thats what central banks want, and what they want is what they get when they are pushing bonds down into the ground.
So could be quite a bit more mileage in it yet.

jeff m2

2,060 posts

153 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
quotequote all
The Market gains over the past fourteen months are despite the economy not because of it.

The gains of the last couple of days (Dow) are fuelled by US trasuries being very unattractive, high yield being over bought and expensive, the Dollar gaining so trimming gains on Emerging Market Bonds, end of the winter so some people automatically move out of commodities. Money has to go somewhere.

As share prices rise Corps sitting on cash have to decide what to do...increase divs, buy backs, expand through take overs.

Maybe I'm on my own here but I would guess the FTSE could be 66xx by the end of April.

Followed by a May sell offbiggrin
But not a tragic one just a correction.

Another thing to consider.......Can you think of a worse investment than Sterlingsmile

BIRMA

Original Poster:

3,813 posts

196 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
quotequote all
jeff m2 said:
The Market gains over the past fourteen months are despite the economy not because of it.

The gains of the last couple of days (Dow) are fuelled by US trasuries being very unattractive, high yield being over bought and expensive, the Dollar gaining so trimming gains on Emerging Market Bonds, end of the winter so some people automatically move out of commodities. Money has to go somewhere.

As share prices rise Corps sitting on cash have to decide what to do...increase divs, buy backs, expand through take overs.

Maybe I'm on my own here but I would guess the FTSE could be 66xx by the end of April.

Followed by a May sell offbiggrin
But not a tragic one just a correction.

Another thing to consider.......Can you think of a worse investment than Sterlingsmile
66xx Hope so I've got a fair bit of ground to make up with my Glencore purchase.

fid

2,428 posts

242 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
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hornet said:
...I told myself if the FTSE went above 6400* I'd bail out of the funds I have...
Surely the funds should bale out into something safer, you pay them to be the experts! Then again, if they stay in and take large losses they can claim massive gains when the markets pick up again...hmm.

jeff m2

2,060 posts

153 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
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fid said:
hornet said:
...I told myself if the FTSE went above 6400* I'd bail out of the funds I have...
Surely the funds should bale out into something safer, you pay them to be the experts! Then again, if they stay in and take large losses they can claim massive gains when the markets pick up again...hmm.
Fund Managers generally only try to stay with or beat the index closest to their mandate.
So for a US Fund Manager in US Stocks that would be the S & P.
If the S & P drops and they drop less that is considered a victorysmile

So.....if a fund manager bales out into something safer he will lag other similar funds and find himself being replaced due to performance or even redemptions.

It is better for the investor to look for a fund that mirrors his objectives.
Maybe a balanced fund that has a fixed income portion that limits the downside, but of course you sacrifice gains during raging bull markets. You'll get a smoother ride.

Horse for courses. the other direction would be to look for something either more aggressive or possibly currently beaten down like a finance fund.

ringram

14,700 posts

250 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
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... sell in may and return again on st ledgers day ... smile

jeff m2

2,060 posts

153 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
quotequote all
ringram said:
... sell in may and return again on st ledgers day ... smile
You must be as old as mebiggrin

hornet

6,333 posts

252 months

Wednesday 6th March 2013
quotequote all
fid said:
urely the funds should bale out into something safer, you pay them to be the experts! Then again, if they stay in and take large losses they can claim massive gains when the markets pick up again...hmm.
Primarily using trackers, for what it's worth. The profit is nothing stellar (few hundred quid), but I have a little bit of 0% credit card debt expiring soon and this goes a fair way to clearing it. Bird in the hand and all that. I missed out on a similar sized profit through pure greed when silver pulled back from $50/oz (last year?), so since then I've set myself certain targets and tried to take emotion out of it. Markets may well have higher to go, who knows, but the US sequester issue is yet to be resolved, and you never know when something unexpected is going to spook people. Not an expert and nor am I trying to be, it was just too nice an amount of "real world" money to turn down, so I blinked smile