The wet and windy, with occasional snow, 2020/2021 thread
Discussion
magpie215 said:
Thanks Pug.
So the polar vortex is not in its usual spot for winter.......how unusual is this when was it last in the "wrong" place.
It is pretty unusual. Pretty sure it was out of place 10 years ago, for instance. So the polar vortex is not in its usual spot for winter.......how unusual is this when was it last in the "wrong" place.
Doesn't guarantee cold, but it is almost completely a blocker of sustained cold when it's in place over NE Canada.
Was a bit weird to see an Atlantic front on the radar last night.
Massive area of high pressure, in the wrong place, over Russia continues to dominate. Weak high pressure over Greenland and southern Europe means low pressure is resident over us. It's not really nasty, but it's grey and damp and occasionally wet. It's one system, not a continuous feed of systems over the ocean.
Cold is still possible for Xmas, but things need to move slightly. It's possible, but not probable. When the door finally closes, I'll shout
I think these images from today and next Monday's forecast tell the story:
Massive area of high pressure, in the wrong place, over Russia continues to dominate. Weak high pressure over Greenland and southern Europe means low pressure is resident over us. It's not really nasty, but it's grey and damp and occasionally wet. It's one system, not a continuous feed of systems over the ocean.
Cold is still possible for Xmas, but things need to move slightly. It's possible, but not probable. When the door finally closes, I'll shout
I think these images from today and next Monday's forecast tell the story:
Edited by Puggit on Friday 11th December 09:06
Daily Christmas briefing shows high to the west, low to the east - cold northerly for Xmas Eve. Never a good setup for snow everywhere, but Scotland would be facing a white Xmas as it stands, and seasonably cold with snow for some elsewhere.
9 days out, so flaky forecast - but as before, the trend is good.
9 days out, so flaky forecast - but as before, the trend is good.
popeyewhite said:
Are any weather models more reliable than the others?
That's an entire weather thread in its own right. They are all pretty much pointing towards the same thing, but with variables. They can all be wrong (it's happened before).
GFS has a big flaw where it bigs up low pressure systems far more than they should be.
PushedDover said:
PushedDover said:
Yes stunning here in Yorkshire today - for the first time in for ages......
And I only saw bloody glimpses as I tramped back and forth for a cuppa after on a 7hr slog Teams Meeting
instead of being out on the bike in it.....
What a difference a day makes. Its brutal up here today - light sleet even. And I only saw bloody glimpses as I tramped back and forth for a cuppa after on a 7hr slog Teams Meeting
instead of being out on the bike in it.....Vile weather
Latest charts still painting a positive picture for Xmas... (but we're still too far out to get excited!)
Stand down! The expected has happened. The high pressure ridge we needed in the Atlantic to drive the cold air south looks like it's weak, and doesn't last long before getting pushed out of the way.
Xmas day now looks like a breeze from the NW - cool, but not cold. Some sunshine.
Better than Atlantic muck!
Northern hemisphere is still a complete mess. All to play for in to January, but zero promises. Potential remains the word.
(runs and hides)
Xmas day now looks like a breeze from the NW - cool, but not cold. Some sunshine.
Better than Atlantic muck!
Northern hemisphere is still a complete mess. All to play for in to January, but zero promises. Potential remains the word.
(runs and hides)
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