The wet and windy, with occasional snow, 2018/2019 thread

[Lemming Train]

Am I the only person here that doesn't have a clue what a "SSW" is? Presumably a south-southwesterly, but no idea what that's got to do with snow.

[MentalSarcasm]

I believe it means it's going to get cold.

Doesn't guarantee snow.

[Puggit]

What the tweet is saying is 2-fold. Firstly the SSW has occurred and is now measurably a 'major' event, like earlier in the year. Secondly, the winds in the stratosphere have started flowing in an easterly direction instead of the usual westerly (caused by the Earth's spin). The stratosphere is very high up, so it will take time for the effects to propagate down to sea level.

In essence, there's a good chance that winds local to us will start coming from the east. Beast from the East, cold, snow, etc - chances are now much, much higher, but not guaranteed.

[ElectricSoup]

Puggit said:

What the tweet is saying is 2-fold. Firstly the SSW has occurred and is now measurably a 'major' event, like earlier in the year. Secondly, the winds in the stratosphere have started flowing in an easterly direction instead of the usual westerly (caused by the Earth's spin). The stratosphere is very high up, so it will take time for the effects to propagate down to sea level.

In essence, there's a good chance that winds local to us will start coming from the east. Beast from the East, cold, snow, etc - chances are now much, much higher, but not guaranteed.

Please tell me this won't happen next week. Please. I have to drive 30 miles to a hospital and back every day for a week and snow would likely put a right kink in it, if it falls like the 09/10 winter in this area (Berks/Oxon) when everything came to a grinding halt. I might even have to get some emergency winter tyres FFS.

[Puggit]

ElectricSoup said:

Please tell me this won't happen next week. Please. I have to drive 30 miles to a hospital and back every day for a week and snow would likely put a right kink in it, if it falls like the 09/10 winter in this area (Berks/Oxon) when everything came to a grinding halt. I might even have to get some emergency winter tyres FFS.

No indications of wintry weather for the vast majority of the UK currently forecast.

[schmalex]

Scabutz said:

leglessAlex said:

Puggit said:

Um... Could you provide a translation to those of us that have been following this thread for ages, but still have no idea about the lingo or the effects of this kind of stuff

Yeah glad you asked that, I'm in the same boat. Google translate doesn't have a science -> pleb option yet.

Basic translation is that the zonal mean wind (normally westerly) in the stratosphere at about 100,000ft above sea level (10 hPa) at 60 degrees North (the arctic) has switched from Westerly to Easterly. This was forecasted in last night’s 6pm GFS forecasting model (18z GFS).

Generally means that we see colder weather from the continent.

[ElectricSoup]

Puggit said:

ElectricSoup said:

Please tell me this won't happen next week. Please. I have to drive 30 miles to a hospital and back every day for a week and snow would likely put a right kink in it, if it falls like the 09/10 winter in this area (Berks/Oxon) when everything came to a grinding halt. I might even have to get some emergency winter tyres FFS.

No indications of wintry weather for the vast majority of the UK currently forecast.

Phew. Thank you.

[Puggit]

ElectricSoup said:

Phew. Thank you.

Frost and fog are possibilities, but no snow/blizzards

[ElectricSoup]

Puggit said:

ElectricSoup said:

Phew. Thank you.

Frost and fog are possibilities, but no snow/blizzards

The former I can deal with. Although driving the "13 Bends of Death" in ice and fog isn't the best, it's better than doing it on snow.

And I'll not mind some proper snow once next week is over!

[Scabutz]

ElectricSoup said:

Please tell me this won't happen next week. Please. I have to drive 30 miles to a hospital and back every day for a week and snow would likely put a right kink in it, if it falls like the 09/10 winter in this area (Berks/Oxon) when everything came to a grinding halt. I might even have to get some emergency winter tyres FFS.

Fear not, if you get stuck the 4x4 response boys sleep with one eye on the phone. They will help you

[Captain Smerc]

The OLLI crew

[ElectricSoup]

Scabutz said:

ElectricSoup said:

Please tell me this won't happen next week. Please. I have to drive 30 miles to a hospital and back every day for a week and snow would likely put a right kink in it, if it falls like the 09/10 winter in this area (Berks/Oxon) when everything came to a grinding halt. I might even have to get some emergency winter tyres FFS.

Fear not, if you get stuck the 4x4 response boys sleep with one eye on the phone. They will help you

I'd like to see their little bearded faces when they try to tow a Nissan Leaf with a flat traction battery out of a snowdrift.

[Puggit]

[Puggit]

ElectricSoup said:

Please tell me this won't happen next week. Please. I have to drive 30 miles to a hospital and back every day for a week and snow would likely put a right kink in it, if it falls like the 09/10 winter in this area (Berks/Oxon) when everything came to a grinding halt. I might even have to get some emergency winter tyres FFS.

Change of advice.

Watch this thread closely...

[ElectricSoup]

Puggit said:

ElectricSoup said:

Please tell me this won't happen next week. Please. I have to drive 30 miles to a hospital and back every day for a week and snow would likely put a right kink in it, if it falls like the 09/10 winter in this area (Berks/Oxon) when everything came to a grinding halt. I might even have to get some emergency winter tyres FFS.

Change of advice.

Watch this thread closely...

st.

[Puggit]

It's early days and can easily change - we're talking about Thurs/Fri next week.

[ElectricSoup]

Puggit said:

It's early days and can easily change - we're talking about Thurs/Fri next week.

Argh. I bloody love snow and cold weather, but just not next week. Sod's law.

[Puggit]

One of those handy air temperature maps in this tweet which shows the current forecast for cold next week and how it happens. Note the comment that ECM isn't showing such pronounced cold.

https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/108078995...

[J4CKO]

Puggit said:

It's early days and can easily change - we're talking about Thurs/Fri next week.

Before the downgrade ?

[onlynik]

Looks cold next Wednesday.