The official winter 2013/2014 snow thread

[Puggit]

kapiteinlangzaam said:

Puggit said:

The centre doesn't see the worst, it's areas to the south of the centre that suffer.

Latest charts are now pointing the damage area at central France <gulp>

And further east/northeast into Belenlux?

Where ever that is

[Puggit]

kapiteinlangzaam said:

Do we really not know what/where Benelux is.....? sorry!

BElgium
NEtherlands
LUXembourg

It's "Belenlux" we're having a problem with...

[Puggit]

drivin_me_nuts said:

A question weatherhounds...

Low pressure + tight isobars = stormy Dailyexpressogeddon

High pressure = ???

Is there ever as much concern when high pressure is forecast?

High pressure is normally associated with very spaced out isobars and still weather - hot and sunny in summer, cold and clear in winter (no clouds, so cooler nights).

[Puggit]

A video for those having problems with words:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24655853

[Puggit]

Hooli said:

Oh good, nothing important to damage there....

Except the Puggit family in Chateau Puggit!

[Puggit]

Explosive cyclogenesis explained

[Puggit]

Amber warning area has spread north - I would worry about your fence...


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warning...

[Puggit]

MetOffice only post amber warnings when they are really sure, and normally with 24 hours notice. I can't recall an amber warning 5 days in advance

[Puggit]

For the ttterati, you can follow #ukstorm

[Puggit]

TheBALDpuma said:

So... A snowy winter? Read somwhere about record breaking November snow, any truth in that?

None at all - usual Express rubbish

[Puggit]

Met Monkey said:

On the current 00Z Met-Office Fax guidance, typical sustained wind speeds inland (in worst affected areas) would be averaging 29mph to 43mph. Force 7 (Near Gale) to Force 9 (Severe Gale)

Across exposed locations of South Wales, along the South Coast of England and especially coastal South East England, sustained winds could reach Force 10 (Storm Force) to Force 11 (Violent Storm Force), that’s an average range of 50mph to 65mph

Although these winds sound impressive, often the most damaging part of a storm is the sudden gusts that develop. Based on this 00Z Met-Office Fax guidance, winds would gust around 60mph – 70mph across inland areas and 80mph – 90mph in exposed coastal regions and across hills.

Should a sting jet develop, part of the jet stream could be deflected towards the surface almost anywhere, accelerating the wind gust speed by an extra 10mph to 20mph.

[Puggit]

PugwasHDJ80 said:

Bet it fizzles...

It's an interesting one - the storm barely exists now. It's all down to computer models

[Puggit]

Mr GrimNasty said:

I bet Michael Fish/Bill Giles are getting twitchy.

As a result of the '87 Great Storm, weather bombs are now known about, and even understood. I posted the true name and explosive cyclonogisis or something earlier. Back in 87 humankind didn't know about this type of weather - so there's less reason to get it wrong.

[Puggit]

He said there wasn't a hurricane, and of course he was right. As you say, strong winds had already been publicly forecast.

There was a complete lack of knowledge about weather bombs and sting jets back then and as a result of 87 we are now far better prepared.

[Puggit]

funkyrobot said:

Metoffice now showing gusts in my area reaching 48 mph. It was 58 mph earlier today. The closer it gets, the more accurate it is?

yes - but MetOffice have also raised the chances of 90mph winds in the South, so I guess it becomes more accurate for local areas

[Puggit]

Lyme Bay is expected to take the biggest hit, Bill...

[Puggit]

Mrs Puggit is unwell so we're thinking of cancelling our trip to France (it's our own house so doesn't break the bank to cancel).

[Puggit]

Met office have moved up to 2nd highest likelihood warning, and still highest impact

[Puggit]

The summit of Cairngorm isn't exactly the dense housing of the South

[Puggit]

Nice one Bill

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