The windy winter and occasional snow thread 2017/2018
Discussion
rustyuk said:
It was snowing in Penzance yesterday
Pembrokeshire dangler! Caused by winds from the north taking small deflections from the land masses on either side of the Irish sea. This casuses a convergence zone (winds from east and west clashing and causing instability which creates the clouds that bring the snow). https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/935118499881...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqE2RKr03j8
Cold spell continues to approach - arriving after Thursday lunchtime (dependent on how far North you are!). Best bet for snow at the moment will be Friday on the west coast, and in to Cheshire, and West Mids (thanks to NWerly wind and no hills there!). Ireland too.
Lots of uncertainty as to what happens after the weekend - but we remain in a good place for repeated wintry bouts and no sign of the Atlantic taking charge.
Lots of uncertainty as to what happens after the weekend - but we remain in a good place for repeated wintry bouts and no sign of the Atlantic taking charge.
dirty boy said:
Nice to see the East of the East getting the square root of f
k all of anything remotely exciting.
Be careful what you wish for. Charts are forecasting easterlies 2 weeks out. If they verify, the North Sea is still pretty warm and will generate considerable snow (no, I'm not forecasting that currently!).k all of anything remotely exciting.Sooooo, we have more charts under our belt. Friday and Monday are of most interest.
The good news. Someone is going to get absolutely battered with snow. Scotland north of the Central Belt, west facing hilly areas of England and Wales, I'm looking at you.
South of the Midlands, we're currently looking at 3 degrees and rain. But it's on a real knife edge, the towel is not thrown in yet.
Plenty of opportunity for more wintry weather after this.
Gales in the North Sea too.
The good news. Someone is going to get absolutely battered with snow. Scotland north of the Central Belt, west facing hilly areas of England and Wales, I'm looking at you.
South of the Midlands, we're currently looking at 3 degrees and rain. But it's on a real knife edge, the towel is not thrown in yet.
Plenty of opportunity for more wintry weather after this.
Gales in the North Sea too.
Pretty much remain the same. Cold air starts to arrive Thurs, snow arrives during the following night.
Good chance of snow showers everywhere - lots of lying snow is mostly for Western elevated areas doing best, some snow along eastern coast too. Cheshire gap (lack of hills around Chester) means NWerly winds will drive some snow towards Midlands, and maybe further.
For southern low levels, it's a knife-edge whether it will fall as rain or snow, or a mix.
What happens after is still up in the air (literally
) - could be some big snow on Sunday/Monday. Very complex weather up ahead, not a normal pattern by any means. You'll need to wait to within 24 hours, and maybe even check your local lamp-post.
Good chance of snow showers everywhere - lots of lying snow is mostly for Western elevated areas doing best, some snow along eastern coast too. Cheshire gap (lack of hills around Chester) means NWerly winds will drive some snow towards Midlands, and maybe further.
For southern low levels, it's a knife-edge whether it will fall as rain or snow, or a mix.
What happens after is still up in the air (literally
) - could be some big snow on Sunday/Monday. Very complex weather up ahead, not a normal pattern by any means. You'll need to wait to within 24 hours, and maybe even check your local lamp-post. Cold said:
Liam Dutton's blog on Why you shouldn’t believe a UK snow forecast more than three days ahead.
3 days! Blimey, is he mystic Meg? I'm sticking to 24 hours...
I'll try and set the scene as to why this is so complicated.
Storm Caroline is passing Eastwards to the north of Scotland, where she'll slow down over the North Sea. This system opens the gates up for Arctic air to flood south (winds go clockwise around low pressure). Meanwhile, a smaller low pressure system will be riding SE-wards along the jet stream which is currently just south of the UK - on a Greenland>>UK line. So, how far south the cold reaches and where this small low pressure system sits depends on the jet stream.
If things go well, it's snowmeggeddon - results varying. The South/SW may very well get cold rain. Scotland - slam dunk for snow, NW areas and Pennines, very good chance.
Welsh hills, good chance. Moors in Devon/Cornwall, pretty good.
Storm Caroline is passing Eastwards to the north of Scotland, where she'll slow down over the North Sea. This system opens the gates up for Arctic air to flood south (winds go clockwise around low pressure). Meanwhile, a smaller low pressure system will be riding SE-wards along the jet stream which is currently just south of the UK - on a Greenland>>UK line. So, how far south the cold reaches and where this small low pressure system sits depends on the jet stream.
If things go well, it's snowmeggeddon - results varying. The South/SW may very well get cold rain. Scotland - slam dunk for snow, NW areas and Pennines, very good chance.
Welsh hills, good chance. Moors in Devon/Cornwall, pretty good.
- If* that rain turns to snow on Friday morning for southern areas - it will be disruptive. I'd give 33% chance at the moment.
MetOffice seem to agree - yellow warnings for most of Western UK: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnin...
NRS said:
Snowmageddon arrived last night. It's a bit worrying when your only car is a MX-5 and you see the bottom of the neighbors RAV4 that had driven away earlier was acting as a snowplough! Dug a trench behind it, reversed out and then tried to keep the speed up without stopping. Luckily the snow was light enough, so I ended up basically acting as an effective snow plough for the parking area, 
Pictures or it didn't happen (ok, I've seen the charts - I know it did really)bobbo89 said:
We've been trying to get an idea of what to expect Friday onwards and really cant seem to come to any sort of conclusion. Different forecasts saying things with our own forecast that we use for taking action saying differently to The Met Office.
Think I'll wait until Thursday morning to try and get a better idea of what we'll be doing and whether I'll be having a weekend or not!
Simply put, the models don't agree. I expect you'll be busy though - on the hilly routes. Think I'll wait until Thursday morning to try and get a better idea of what we'll be doing and whether I'll be having a weekend or not!
This post helps explain! https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88883-model-...
Edited by Puggit on Tuesday 5th December 16:43
The 2nd low pressure system seems to be correcting more southwards...
Bad news
Northern areas might not see snow as the low is too far south
Good news
More of the UK is in the cold, the jet stream is south of all of us! Cold likely to stay around longer.
South of B'ham sees the snow on Sunday
Potentially awful news
If it moves any further south, no one gets snow from that low
Bad news
Northern areas might not see snow as the low is too far south
Good news
More of the UK is in the cold, the jet stream is south of all of us! Cold likely to stay around longer.
South of B'ham sees the snow on Sunday
Potentially awful news
If it moves any further south, no one gets snow from that low
Edited by Puggit on Wednesday 6th December 10:14
Gassing Station | The Lounge | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff