The official summer sun, BBQ and thunder thread 2019

[Puggit]

Amazing storm over Essex and Suffolk apparently.

[Puggit]

Met office got it wrong. All the small time forecasters said Sussex/Kent/Essex, hence my post on Monday.

Met office blew it well out of proportion...

[Puggit]

MentalSarcasm said:

Apart from what sounded like a 1am downpour, north Essex didn't get much either.

NE Essex did - this storm formed just SW of Colchester and moved up in to Suffolk:

https://twitter.com/CapelStAndrewFm/status/1141058...

(amazing pics for a UK storm).

[Puggit]

Small but increasing chances of a Spanish plume towards end of next week. Potential for temps in to the 30s *IF* it happens.

As usual, short term and humid/muggy - thunder a real possibility too. As usual, the plume may hit other parts of Europe instead.

[Puggit]

Some meat on the bones of my earlier heat warning - but as before, this is 8 days away, so in the unreliable timeframe:

Low pressure stalling to our SW allows the winds to align and drag up Saharan heat:



Leading to:

[Puggit]

colin_p said:

Oh nose, not one of those pesky Spanish plumes, that'll ruin the best summer ever.

Last night and today not a single sausage of lightning but plenty of cool refreshing lovely rain.

Can't get a good storm without good heat

[Puggit]

SpeckledJim said:

Come back last summer, all is forgiven.

The lawn was already dead by this time last year. Didn't need mowing for 4 months. Now it's thriving. The little green sprouty bawbags.

Couldn't believe the difference in the woods today compared to Monday. Growth of grass and ferns is incredible.

[Puggit]

Some charts (GFS...) continuing to advocate extreme heat next week from the plume. Temporary, very hot, very humid - very big breakdown on Friday with very big storms.

Keeping an eye on things - warmer, definitely. Extreme heat...? Maybe.

[Puggit]

JakeT said:

I am due to drive through France to Bourges on Friday. I am hoping for a hot drive south.

High 20s, low 30s currently for central France.

[Puggit]

JakeT said:

This is good news. Just what I want. Hit 37 this time last year when we were travelling down!

I was there... (further north between Tours/Le Mans).

It was brutal and relentless. Thank god 1) for the big tree in the garden 2) the swimming lake in the village (which was a mere 29 degrees)

[Puggit]

funkyrobot said:

Met office have issued a yellow thunderstorm warning for Sunday 15:00 until Monday midnight.

Beaten to it

For ALL of England, apart from Devon/Cornwall. This will probably shrink as we approach the time.

[Puggit]

Allanv said:

What is Bath looking like on Saturday?

[Puggit]

6am data from GFS only upgrades the heat.

Honestly hoping for some downgrades soon... They are exceptional charts, with the true meaning of the word.

This is the upper atmosphere temp chart for Thurs:

Remember that we can normally easily add at least 8 degrees to this to get the ground temp.

[Puggit]

Chicken Chaser said:

What's the Middlesbrough area looking to do over the next week? I'm sick of the heavy rain for 3 days then half a day of sunshine.

Winds will have an easterly aspect to them for some time - so off the north sea and therefore not as hot. But mainly dry, some heavy downpours!

[Puggit]

SpeckledJim said:

Nothing unusual here, temperature wise.

That's the 26 degree line over southern england - for the upper atmosphere. Add 8 degrees for ground temp. Then high humidity.

[Puggit]

p1stonhead said:

Urgh. Too hot to be be anywhere near an office!

Melman will be closing his

[Puggit]

We now have cross model support on very hot conditions. Across the board, models have 'upgraded' during the day.

This isn't high pressure bringing stable sunny weather - this is unstable and humid air being dragged up from much further south. Cloudy, humid, real possibility of 'feels like' temperatures approaching 40 with real temps in the mid 30s. Frequent storms...

June record is 35.6 degrees - Southampton 1976.

[Puggit]

colin_p said:

Netweather are forecasting "feels like" temps that are insane, these are for East Berks;

Weds 42c
Thur 43c

I'm not going to enjoy this at all, as it is also going to be muggier than a muggy things muggle


Any further or better info Pug?

Not at the moment. Expecting some downgrades - they have to happen, right?

The main models all showed highest *ever* forecast temps for the upper atmosphere yesterday (for the UK). They were truly exceptional charts. A little minor watering down today, but the heat and humidity is coming. We can certainly stand down from any talk of beating 38.5 degrees, but the June record may stand a test.

Atmosphere will be absolutely full of energy. Not totally ripe for storms, some criteria aren't right. But if anything does kick off, there will be tremendous storms caused.

Heat most likely to last until Sunday week - but there are some indications it may last beyond.

[Puggit]

Thursday feels like for Reading now 45...

[Puggit]

Starting to see thoughts of a mesoscale convective system for tomorrow night. Broadly somewhere along the M62 corridor. These are supersize storms with bigger everything.