The wet and windy, with occasional snow, 2018/2019 thread
Discussion
MetOffice said:
UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:
The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.
Very complex setup at the moment, with no clear direction on where we're heading. The form horse for Xmas Day is currently crisp cold high pressure, with a small possibility of snow showers for NE coastal areas.
Real snowy cold weather isn't a million miles from the setup - but not currently forecast! What I'm saying is it's not off the table, but it is unlikely.
Following Xmas, that real snowy cold weather could start to materialise. But again, not currently forecast, just a possible outcome from where the setup is.
Real snowy cold weather isn't a million miles from the setup - but not currently forecast! What I'm saying is it's not off the table, but it is unlikely.
Following Xmas, that real snowy cold weather could start to materialise. But again, not currently forecast, just a possible outcome from where the setup is.
Xmas Day update - remains cool across the UK. Pretty settled.
Charts are beginning to hint that the polar vortex might set up home over Scandinavia in the near future as a result of all the shenanigans up high in the atmosphere. This takes the coldest air and low pressure to nearby. Low pressure spins anti-clockwise... We could end up with a direct northerly soon after Christmas.
Charts are beginning to hint that the polar vortex might set up home over Scandinavia in the near future as a result of all the shenanigans up high in the atmosphere. This takes the coldest air and low pressure to nearby. Low pressure spins anti-clockwise... We could end up with a direct northerly soon after Christmas.
Met Office Long Range Forecast - I appreciate that some of you think they're just hedging their bets - but they do not use language like this lightly. It's a long range forecast, they don't like going beyond 5 days!
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 1 Jan 2019:
Sunday will see a band of cloud and rain move northeastwards, followed by a mixture of sunny spells and further organised bands of rain or heavy showers. It'll be windy too, especially towards the coasts in the south and west. Temperatures will tend to stay mild for the time of year. The north and west is likely to stay rather wet and windy on Christmas Eve, with the rest of the UK looking drier. For Christmas Day itself, it may be drier, brighter and colder for most, followed by some rain later. As we head towards the New Year, dry cold and bright weather becomes more likely, with any weather systems becoming increasingly confined to the north or northeast.
UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:
Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.
Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 1 Jan 2019:
Sunday will see a band of cloud and rain move northeastwards, followed by a mixture of sunny spells and further organised bands of rain or heavy showers. It'll be windy too, especially towards the coasts in the south and west. Temperatures will tend to stay mild for the time of year. The north and west is likely to stay rather wet and windy on Christmas Eve, with the rest of the UK looking drier. For Christmas Day itself, it may be drier, brighter and colder for most, followed by some rain later. As we head towards the New Year, dry cold and bright weather becomes more likely, with any weather systems becoming increasingly confined to the north or northeast.
UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:
Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.
Little change - apart from the high pressure for Xmas might be poorly aligned for some parts, in terms of cold. Southern half of UK currently forecast to have cloud and so some warmth.
SSW still modeled, but pushing back slightly. As per earlier in the year, a 2nd SSW is also on the cards.
SSW still modeled, but pushing back slightly. As per earlier in the year, a 2nd SSW is also on the cards.
funkyrobot said:
SSW - f
k that!
The cold was bad enough at the end of Feb. I'm guessing if it happens soon, it'll be even colder when we see the effects of it?
Yes - the SSW is happening over Xmas and models today have started showing the effects early Jan. A split vortex is expected and might end up over Europe- bringing the cold air to us. k that!The cold was bad enough at the end of Feb. I'm guessing if it happens soon, it'll be even colder when we see the effects of it?
Nothing to get excited about at the moment. Top far out, and we have high pressure for the foreseeable future.
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