The official summer sun, BBQ and thunder thread 2019

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Models are struggling with tonight's thunder, but here's one take;

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Chicken Chaser said:

What is moderate in terms of what we usually have?

Grey area is small single cell storms that pass by. Green is bigger single cell storms. When you get to yellow/moderate, you can have multi cell storms. Large hail, tornadoes, flooding - all more likely.

Sort of - it's not an exact science.

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I think I got that wrong. It's the chances of a storm...

Low 5-20% chance of lightning nearby
Slight 20-40%
Moderate 40-60%

However - my earlier statements pretty much count today. Yellow area storms have the potential to be quite nasty.

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MG CHRIS said:

Looks like wales is going to get wet this afternoon then again that's a typical summer day around here.

Yes, MetO have removed warnings from the west for thunder.

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However - amateur storm forecasters still thinking Wales could get some. They tend to be more accurate than MetO

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You'll have noticed the crazy 'feels like' temps and actual temps have pegged back. Wind will move to a more NErly direction, so nowhere near as hot.

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Theat of thunder seems to have diminished tonight. Still a chance, but lower.

Threat for Tuesday in SE has raised.

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Storms did finally form, over far northern England...

A lot of rain Hampshire bound- then up to the Midlands.

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Kent/Essex/Suffolk (yet again) in the firing line later - very rare to see the UK included on this European map, let alone a red level 2. Confidence is quite low for UK though...

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colin_p said:

Blimey!

That's right - UK is forecast to have the most severe storms in Europe...

@UKweatherlive has this forecast:



So - a 40-60% chance of storms for some - and they could be prolonged and severe in the black area.

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More amateurs now thinking severe storm risk tonight is further west:



This one from https://twitter.com/UKWX_

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There's plenty of spread still in the models, so some uncertainty.

Colin - afraid forecasting thunder is way beyond me.

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Fret not - we're looking at after midnight and well in to tomorrow.

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ST_Nuts said:

Fortunately seems like it'll be cooling down next week. Unbearable working out in this.

Yep. Atlantic shunts the heat away on Sunday

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Thunder may have died down, but system is growing significantly.

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Only one model got it right - well done Arome... Storms kept to far SE corner

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High hopes for high pressure as we move from this plume - probably in the form of the Azores High paying a visit in one form or another.

Far from nailed on though, of course.

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44 possible in France on Sat

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p1stonhead said:

If it doesn’t I’m going to sue! This thread is a constant source of disappointment

I haven't talked about storms today

Although there is a slim chance of small storms along the south coast.