lottery odds and lucky dip.

[kazste]

I assume this has been done to death but cannot find anything so apologies if a repost.
I want to play the lottery but I want to be able to stop as well which rules out picking the same numbers every draw as luck would dictate that if I stopped my numbers would come up, to this end I started thinking about changing my numbers every week by going for a lucky dip. However do the odds stay the same?

I understand that on any given draw the odds of winning are equal for all combinations of numbers but if rolling a dice tells us anything it is that if you have enough throws the numbers will even out to an acceptable level, therefore if you pick the same six numbers at some point then will come up, however doesn't the same logic dictate that if you have different numbers every week you have changed the odds and could quite easily go through the combinations a multiple of times and never match the numbers?

I'd like to point out right now that I'm an idiot when it comes to math so in all likelihood I'm probably wrong.

[Aiten]

Keeping the same numbers or changing makes no difference. A new draw means everything is reset. Your lucky dip has exactly the same chance as your usual numbers.

[bingybongy]

Maths.

[Scousefella]

kazste said:

I want to play the lottery

Give money/playslip to shopkeeper and exchange for ticket.

Asking about the odds is a load of bowl-licks imo - winning big is virtually impossible but we still play.

[sneijder]

Your only concern should be if the 'lucky dip' algorithm selects the same numbers for players.

If you win, would you be chuffed if you had to split it by a tenth ?

I don't know the answer, but if the numbers were generated using a time based random generator (this is a really basic example, it couldn't be this bad) two people buying a lucky dip within the same one second window (which must happen on a Friday evening) would get the same numbers ?

Edited to add :

http://www.natlotcomm.gov.uk/assets-uploaded/docum...

Edited by sneijder on Wednesday 4th February 13:59

[kazste]

I'm just thinking if you take it down to a die, every 6th time the dice is rolled all numbers should of been rolled, now we know that this is not the case in the real world but if we use a large sample of six number rolls then the numbers will start to average out.

However if you sit there stating you want a three, and next roll a six, and so on as if picking your own random number you are no longer just relying on the odds of getting every sixth number you are also including the odds of selecting the right random number when it is that random numbers turn to come up.

Maybe I need to stop this st and give the guy at the newsagent £2

[TwigtheWonderkid]

kazste said:

I'm just thinking if you take it down to a die, every 6th time the dice is rolled all numbers should of been rolled, now we know that this is not the case in the real world but if we use a large sample of six number rolls then the numbers will start to average out.

However if you sit there stating you want a three, and next roll a six, and so on as if picking your own random number you are no longer just relying on the odds of getting every sixth number you are also including the odds of selecting the right random number when it is that random numbers turn to come up.

Maybe I need to stop this st and give the guy at the newsagent £2

If you go with 6 every time, on average and given enough throws, you will one once in every 6 throws. If you pick random numbers, over time, given enough throws, you will win once in every 6 throws.

But as said, if you win the lotto jackpot, you don't want to be sharing it, and as most people go for birthdays and house numbers, lower numbers predominate in peoples choices. So, don't do the lucky dip, but every week, choose your own random numbers with the lowest being 32. That way, if you do win, you'll keep the lot.

[Boydie88]

kazste said:

I'm just thinking if you take it down to a die, every 6th time the dice is rolled all numbers should of been rolled

Actually, I make the chance of rolling a die six times and getting the numbers one to six (in any order) is about 1.5%.

6/6 * 5/6 * 4/6 * 3/6 * 2/6 * 1/6 = 720/46656 = 0.0154...

[trickywoo]

kazste said:

I'm just thinking if you take it down to a die, every 6th time the dice is rolled all numbers should of been rolled

This will make me look like a pedant but using of instead of have is really doing my head in and seemingly becoming increasingly common. Please stop it.

As a poster above said your best option is to pick numbers that other people are less likely to have thus if you win the amount is going to be as high as possible. Its the only element you have any control over.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

Boydie88 said:

kazste said:

I'm just thinking if you take it down to a die, every 6th time the dice is rolled all numbers should of been rolled

Actually, I make the chance of rolling a die six times and getting the numbers one to six (in any order) is about 1.5%.

6/6 * 5/6 * 4/6 * 3/6 * 2/6 * 1/6 = 720/46656 = 0.0154...

That's right. It factorises down to 5/324. The chances of rolling 6 different numbers in 6 rolls is just under 1/65.

[P-Jay]

There's fourteen and a half million or so unique combinations of the 6 numbers, so you have about a one in fourteen and a half million chance of getting them right. The whole point of the way they choose the winner with lotteries is to make the extremely unlikely, seem slightly more likely.

You could choose the same numbers every week, and continue to play for decades to come through fear your numbers might 'come in' the day you forget to play - they even based a promotion around that when they started letting you play online, but the odds just don't stack up, or just ask for a 'lucky dip' I play a couple of times a month doing just that - in 5 years I've never even won a tenner - a sane logical person would stop doing it, but my Wife sees this as a sign that we'd hit the jackpot one day ha ha.

[lambysdad]

I have been doing the same 6 numbers every Saturday, then to be every Wednesday and Saturday since November 1994. Started of at £1 per week, and is now £4 per week.

I can honestly say that in the last 20 years I have won less than £200.

I know I've been suckered in, and in hindsight I should have done lucky dips. That way I could dip in and out of playing at my leisure without fear of 'my' numbers coming up and missing out on a win.

But as they say, you've got to be in it to win it

[P-Jay]

There's something else to consider - what if 'your' numbers are shared with 30 other people - imagine watching all 6 drop in (I know no one actually watches it anymore) only to find the £2.3m you won is actually 'only' £76k.

Lots of people play their birthdates and that of their kids, dogs or whatever - rules out 32 to 49 - play the higher numbers if you want to try to reduce the chance of a split win.

[killingjoker]

P-Jay said:

There's something else to consider - what if 'your' numbers are shared with 30 other people - imagine watching all 6 drop in (I know no one actually watches it anymore) only to find the £2.3m you won is actually 'only' £76k.

Lots of people play their birthdates and that of their kids, dogs or whatever - rules out 32 to 49 - play the higher numbers if you want to try to reduce the chance of a split win.

However, lots of people realise this so you may not be reducing the chance of a split win as much as you think.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

killingjoker said:

P-Jay said:

There's something else to consider - what if 'your' numbers are shared with 30 other people - imagine watching all 6 drop in (I know no one actually watches it anymore) only to find the £2.3m you won is actually 'only' £76k.

Lots of people play their birthdates and that of their kids, dogs or whatever - rules out 32 to 49 - play the higher numbers if you want to try to reduce the chance of a split win.

However, lots of people realise this so you may not be reducing the chance of a split win as much as you think.

But whenever the lotto jackpot is all high numbers, it's never shared. There's either 1 winner or none.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

P-Jay said:

There's fourteen and a half million or so unique combinations of the 6 numbers,

13.9 million. Don't make it worse that it is!

[P-Jay]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

P-Jay said:

There's fourteen and a half million or so unique combinations of the 6 numbers,

13.9 million. Don't make it worse that it is!

That few?

Still, it's all a bit of a lottery isn't it...

[TwigtheWonderkid]

P-Jay said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

P-Jay said:

There's fourteen and a half million or so unique combinations of the 6 numbers,

13.9 million. Don't make it worse that it is!

That few?

Still, it's all a bit of a lottery isn't it...

If it was one in 14.5m I wouldn't bother playing, but with 1 in 13.9m, it's worth a punt.

If you just do one line and play the same numbers every week, then statistically the chances are your numbers will come around approx once every quarter of a million years.

[trickywoo]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

If you just do one line and play the same numbers every week, then statistically the chances are your numbers will come around approx once every quarter of a million years.

If you have the discipline for it your best option is to buy 52 tickets for one draw (ideally a multiple rollover) as your odds are better than buying 52 individual tickets.

[Meoricin]

lambysdad said:

I have been doing the same 6 numbers every Saturday, then to be every Wednesday and Saturday since November 1994. Started of at £1 per week, and is now £4 per week.

I can honestly say that in the last 20 years I have won less than £200.

I know I've been suckered in, and in hindsight I should have done lucky dips. That way I could dip in and out of playing at my leisure without fear of 'my' numbers coming up and missing out on a win.

But as they say, you've got to be in it to win it

I've been doing Saturday only for just over three years now, and have won 4 times - £50~, £10~x2, and £150~

Does this make me lucky, or you unlucky?