Covid19 science

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Monty Python

4,812 posts

199 months

Monday 20th April 2020
quotequote all
Thesprucegoose said:
Hydroxychloroquine

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/...

If hydroxychloroquine is to be used, a clear informed choice needs to be offered to every contact, explaining the scarcity of evidence for its efficacy and its potential risks.

I guess people will argue with the Lancet.....

This tests completed

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-17/m...

''In research done in France, hydroxychloroquine reduced neither deaths nor admissions to intensive care units among patients who received it. In a study conducted in China and another in Brazil, the two drugs failed to help patients clear the coronavirus faster.

And in Brazil, two deaths and a rash of heart troubles among patients who got a high dose of chloroquine prompted a hasty alteration of the trial there after just 13 days. Concluding that “enough red flags” had been raised, the researchers halted testing of the drug in its extra-strength form.''


Edited by Thesprucegoose on Monday 20th April 20:23
So two people.

This paints a somewhat different picture: https://www.sermo.com/press-releases/largest-stati...

andy_s

19,423 posts

261 months

Monday 20th April 2020
quotequote all
randytusk said:
Chloroquine and it’s older relative quinine are potent and highly toxic especially in prolonged high doses. I see a number of patients with sight loss caused by continued repeat prescribing of the former.....
Sure it wasn’t the gin wot did it?

Monty Python

4,812 posts

199 months

Monday 20th April 2020
quotequote all
Seems others have a bit more confidence in it as well:

https://www.recoverytrial.net/

This is quite interesting too:

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with...

anonymous-user

56 months

Monday 20th April 2020
quotequote all
Monty Python said:
So two people.

This paints a somewhat different picture: https://www.sermo.com/press-releases/largest-stati...
Yes

''Hydroxychloroquine usage amongst COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, ''

The countries with the highest death rates.

''17% in Germany''

Is that the point you were making?

anonymous-user

56 months

Monday 20th April 2020
quotequote all
Thesprucegoose said:
Yes

''Hydroxychloroquine usage amongst COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, ''

The countries with the highest death rates.

''17% in Germany''

Is that the point you were making?
The death rates would have been higher without it?



Monty Python

4,812 posts

199 months

Tuesday 21st April 2020
quotequote all
Thesprucegoose said:
Yes

''Hydroxychloroquine usage amongst COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, ''

The countries with the highest death rates.

''17% in Germany''

Is that the point you were making?
Sure - it's so dangerous the UK has decided to include it in trials for Covis-19 treatments.

anonymous-user

56 months

Tuesday 21st April 2020
quotequote all
V6 Pushfit said:
The death rates would have been higher without it?
how can you prove it? All the SERMO shows is what treatments have been used, it doesn't show who died and didn't die as a result, as it would be pretty hard to work out in these difficult times and data is based on anecdotal evidence.

Seems a bit on a concidence that the highest death rates against lowest correlate with Hydroxychloroquine usage?

anonymous-user

56 months

Tuesday 21st April 2020
quotequote all
Monty Python said:
Sure - it's so dangerous the UK has decided to include it in trials for Covis-19 treatments.
Drugs with side effects that can be fatal have been used to years. In a pandemic the rules are bent a lot more.

2fast748

1,104 posts

197 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
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Terminator X

15,204 posts

206 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
quotequote all
Chaps.

Why is it that death rate continues at 500-1000 a day in the UK seeing as we have been locked down for 4+ weeks now? My understanding is that from infection to recovery / death is 21 days max (is it?) so shouldn't we be seeing a massive drop in infection rates + deaths by now eg from the start of the 4th week surely the infection rate is close to zero?

TX.

anonymous-user

56 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
quotequote all
Monty Python said:
Thesprucegoose said:
Yes

''Hydroxychloroquine usage amongst COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, ''

The countries with the highest death rates.

''17% in Germany''

Is that the point you were making?
Sure - it's so dangerous the UK has decided to include it in trials for Covis-19 treatments.
There are three issues with hydroxychloroquine. First, does it work? Secondly, if so, what is the correct dosage? Thirdly, and after establishing it works and the dosage, does it produce adverse side effects?

People dying during clinical trials in Brazil is not a good sign. Clinical trials are heavily controlled and conservative.

anonymous-user

56 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
quotequote all
Terminator X said:
Chaps.

Why is it that death rate continues at 500-1000 a day in the UK seeing as we have been locked down for 4+ weeks now? My understanding is that from infection to recovery / death is 21 days max (is it?) so shouldn't we be seeing a massive drop in infection rates + deaths by now eg from the start of the 4th week surely the infection rate is close to zero?

TX.
long symptoms and airborne nature would be my understanding.

GroundZero

2,085 posts

56 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
quotequote all
Terminator X said:
Chaps.

Why is it that death rate continues at 500-1000 a day in the UK seeing as we have been locked down for 4+ weeks now? My understanding is that from infection to recovery / death is 21 days max (is it?) so shouldn't we be seeing a massive drop in infection rates + deaths by now eg from the start of the 4th week surely the infection rate is close to zero?

TX.
I would put that down to many patients who would unfortunately end up as dieing from the virus will initially have entered hospital on week 2 or 3 of catching the virus, and then struggle with it inside hospital for another week or two before unfortunately losing the battle.

There is also the new additions of deaths from other sources such as care homes that are now being added to the totals.

Then finally I would guess there was an amount of people who ignored social distancing and lockdown rules who then became infected and 'overlap' the positive effect of the lockdown start date.

The next two weeks should see the true effect of the lockdown. I would hope to see a drastic reduction on the current daily numbers, albeit they are now adding deaths from other sources outside of hospitals.

anonymous-user

56 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
quotequote all
GroundZero said:
I would put that down to many patients who would unfortunately end up as dieing from the virus will initially have entered hospital on week 2 or 3 of catching the virus, and then struggle with it inside hospital for another week or two before unfortunately losing the battle.

There is also the new additions of deaths from other sources such as care homes that are now being added to the totals.

Then finally I would guess there was an amount of people who ignored social distancing and lockdown rules who then became infected and 'overlap' the positive effect of the lockdown start date.

The next two weeks should see the true effect of the lockdown. I would hope to see a drastic reduction on the current daily numbers, albeit they are now adding deaths from other sources outside of hospitals.
Pretty much sums it up. Italy took a long time to get numbers to stop escalating.

Still no recovered numbers though??

pherlopolus

2,092 posts

160 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
quotequote all
Terminator X said:
Chaps.

Why is it that death rate continues at 500-1000 a day in the UK seeing as we have been locked down for 4+ weeks now? My understanding is that from infection to recovery / death is 21 days max (is it?) so shouldn't we be seeing a massive drop in infection rates + deaths by now eg from the start of the 4th week surely the infection rate is close to zero?

TX.
The data you need to look at is here...

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-...

It shows deaths dropping. The Gov reported deaths have a huge proportion from previous days/weeks.


anonymous-user

56 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
quotequote all
pherlopolus said:
Terminator X said:
Chaps.

Why is it that death rate continues at 500-1000 a day in the UK seeing as we have been locked down for 4+ weeks now? My understanding is that from infection to recovery / death is 21 days max (is it?) so shouldn't we be seeing a massive drop in infection rates + deaths by now eg from the start of the 4th week surely the infection rate is close to zero?

TX.
The data you need to look at is here...

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-...

It shows deaths dropping. The Gov reported deaths have a huge proportion from previous days/weeks.

That graph has slightly more than 400 on 19th but there were 596, Just less than 400 on 20th but there were 449. And 100 on 21st when there were 828.

???



RSTurboPaul

10,560 posts

260 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
quotequote all
V6 Pushfit said:
pherlopolus said:
Terminator X said:
Chaps.

Why is it that death rate continues at 500-1000 a day in the UK seeing as we have been locked down for 4+ weeks now? My understanding is that from infection to recovery / death is 21 days max (is it?) so shouldn't we be seeing a massive drop in infection rates + deaths by now eg from the start of the 4th week surely the infection rate is close to zero?

TX.
The data you need to look at is here...

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-...

It shows deaths dropping. The Gov reported deaths have a huge proportion from previous days/weeks.

That graph has slightly more than 400 on 19th but there were 596, Just less than 400 on 20th but there were 449. And 100 on 21st when there were 828.

???
Not checked... but I'm assuming the 596 number was deaths announced that day but only 400 of those actually took place on that day, for example, due to delays in reporting etc

It is this (deliberate?) confusion that the Government and the BBC seem to be playing on to portray 'deaths continue to rise!!' scaremongering stories, whereas if the graphs showing the actual dates of death were used, it would clearly show the peak has been and gone (and people might be less willing to suffer house arrest any longer)..

Edited by RSTurboPaul on Wednesday 22 April 21:03

Bristol ave fag

200 posts

74 months

Wednesday 22nd April 2020
quotequote all
The early reports that it came from bat meat in a market in china ? are they correct?

anonymous-user

56 months

Thursday 23rd April 2020
quotequote all
RSTurboPaul said:
Not checked... but I'm assuming the 596 number was deaths announced that day but only 400 of those actually took place on that day, for example, due to delays in reporting etc

It is this (deliberate?) confusion that the Government and the BBC seem to be playing on to portray 'deaths continue to rise!!' scaremongering stories, whereas if the graphs showing the actual dates of death were used, it would clearly show the peak has been and gone (and people might be less willing to suffer house arrest any longer)..

Edited by RSTurboPaul on Wednesday 22 April 21:03
That ought to be unlikely but it’s all very strange ! We’ve been into all this 2 months now and their giving no recovery figures is astonishing as therefore they sent being taken off the ‘active cases’ number. I mean why??? It MUST be known - but the nurses all clapping when one person leaves hospital isn’t exactly reassuring that there are many that go home.
Also astonishing to me that no journo has asked about all of this at the pressers.

Bristol ave fag

200 posts

74 months

Thursday 23rd April 2020
quotequote all
23/04/2020 number of corona deaths so far as on wiki US 48,000. Spain 22,000. Italy 25,000. Uk 18,000. / China 4,632....?.... Japan 2,408.??

WTF

Where did this virus start china ? it dose not make sense by the numbers!