Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

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Discussion

robinessex

11,102 posts

183 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
gadgetmac said:
Interesting to see someone who clearly knows what they are talking about posting in here.
How are you able to deduce that? Your CC qualifications are ?

ludo

5,308 posts

206 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
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DibblyDobbler said:
Yes
cool, perhaps this place has improved since I was last here. beer

DibblyDobbler said:
... but it's really a side issue to the main argument isn't it?
No, not really. I was responding to

Jinx said:
[cough]
HadCrut4 70 areas of concern about data quality and accuracy
[/cough]
So it very much is the main argument (at least in this particular branch of the discussion).

gadgetmac

14,984 posts

110 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
robinessex said:
gadgetmac said:
Interesting to see someone who clearly knows what they are talking about posting in here.
How are you able to deduce that? Your CC qualifications are ?
...being able to understand that when 97% of scientists agree and only a fringe element don't that it's almost certainly true.

Your CC qualifications to argue against the scientific establishment and consensus are?

Oh, don't bother, we know they're zero.

DocJock

8,383 posts

242 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
robinessex said:
How are you able to deduce that? Your CC qualifications are ?
FFS, please don't turn this thread into the politics thread v2.0.

DibblyDobbler

11,284 posts

199 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
ludo said:
So it very much is the main argument (at least in this particular branch of the discussion).
Fair enough - I was seeking to broaden things out smile

I'm comfortable that the planet appears to be slowly warming but is it 100% caused by us... 0%... somewhere in between? That, for me at least, is the main issue.

ludo

5,308 posts

206 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
DibblyDobbler said:
Fair enough - I was seeking to broaden things out smile

I'm comfortable that the planet appears to be slowly warming but is it 100% caused by us... 0%... somewhere in between? That, for me at least, is the main issue.
It isn't slowly warming. Can you give examples of when it has warmed by a similar amount (or more) at a faster rate?

Jasandjules

70,016 posts

231 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
DibblyDobbler said:
I'm comfortable that the planet appears to be slowly warming but is it 100% caused by us... 0%... somewhere in between? That, for me at least, is the main issue.
What data or evidence do you have to support any statistical warming?

Halb

53,012 posts

185 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
gadgetmac said:
...being able to understand that when 97% of scientists agree and only a fringe element don't that it's almost certainly true..
consensus isn't inviolable though, in the past prevailing paradigms have existed and then got changed when more info was found out.
I don't know about climate change, I read this thread to see if I can understand it better.

ludo

5,308 posts

206 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
Halb said:
consensus isn't inviolable though, in the past prevailing paradigms have existed and then got changed when more info was found out.
I don't know about climate change, I read this thread to see if I can understand it better.
You would be better off reading a book (e.g. Spencer Weart's "The Discovery of climate change", which is also available online https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm is a good starting point). This thread contains much that is, err, "unreliable".

Halb

53,012 posts

185 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
ludo said:
You would be better off reading a book (e.g. Spencer Weart's "The Discovery of climate change", which is also available online https://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm is a good starting point). This thread contains much that is, err, "unreliable".
I feel lost with with the whole thing.
This book, has lots of data?

gadgetmac

14,984 posts

110 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
Halb said:
gadgetmac said:
...being able to understand that when 97% of scientists agree and only a fringe element don't that it's almost certainly true..
consensus isn't inviolable though, in the past prevailing paradigms have existed and then got changed when more info was found out.
I don't know about climate change, I read this thread to see if I can understand it better.
Correct, but at this point in time you have to go with what the Science (and by extension the Scientists, Scientific Institutions and People on the ground are telling you) until contrary evidence is available (and accepted by the scientific community as evidence) that the current thinking is wrong. Whereupon a new consensus will be born, even if the new consensus is simply "we don't know yet".

ludo

5,308 posts

206 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
Jasandjules said:
What data or evidence do you have to support any statistical warming?
As long as you evaluate the trend over a long enough period for the result not to depend on internal climate variability (e.g. ENSO), then you can find a statistically significant warming trend. The WMO recommend 30 years as being sufficient for climate.

Note that a lot of people on climate skeptic blogs don't understand statistical significance and argue that a lack of warming over a period that is too short to expect a significant result means that there is no warming. See here for a detailed explanation of why that is not the case.

ludo

5,308 posts

206 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
Halb said:
I feel lost with with the whole thing.
This book, has lots of data?
You need to understand the physics before data is helpful. If you want the data, everything you need is publicly available, and easy to find using Google (e.g. RealClimate Data Page).

Edited by ludo on Saturday 16th February 11:59

Halb

53,012 posts

185 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
ludo said:
Halb said:
I feel lost with with the whole thing.
This book, has lots of data?
You need to understand the physics before data is helpful. If you want the data, everything you need is publicly available, and easy to find using Google.
Well I don't really understand the physics. I dropped out of my A level physics. I need a basic, dummies guide to climate change.

ludo

5,308 posts

206 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
Halb said:
ludo said:
Halb said:
I feel lost with with the whole thing.
This book, has lots of data?
You need to understand the physics before data is helpful. If you want the data, everything you need is publicly available, and easy to find using Google.
Well I don't really understand the physics. I dropped out of my A level physics. I need a basic, dummies guide to climate change.
Weart's book is a good place to start for a general audience (no equations, just descriptions of the physical mechanisms and history).

grumbledoak

31,602 posts

235 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
Anyone new to these threads should note that "Real Climate" http://www.realclimate.org is very much the establishment climate scientists (Mann, Schmidt, et. al.) and "Skeptical Science" https://www.skepticalscience.com/ is not as it's name suggests.

As to posters linking to these while rubbishing other sources as propaganda, I trust PHers to draw their own conclusions.

DibblyDobbler

11,284 posts

199 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
ludo said:
It isn't slowly warming. Can you give examples of when it has warmed by a similar amount (or more) at a faster rate?
Jasandjules said:
What data or evidence do you have to support any statistical warming?
Umm... I'm off back to the photography forum getmecoat

ludo

5,308 posts

206 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
grumbledoak said:
Anyone new to these threads should note that "Real Climate" http://www.realclimate.org is very much the establishment climate scientists (Mann, Schmidt, et. al.) and "Skeptical Science" https://www.skepticalscience.com/ is not as it's name suggests.

As to posters linking to these while rubbishing other sources as propaganda, I trust PHers to draw their own conclusions.
yawn, ad-hominems (attacks on the source of the argument in place of attacks on the content) are O.K. in politics, but not in science where the only thing that matters is the validity of the argument and the support from the observations/experiment.

ludo

5,308 posts

206 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
DibblyDobbler said:
ludo said:
It isn't slowly warming. Can you give examples of when it has warmed by a similar amount (or more) at a faster rate?
...

Umm... I'm off back to the photography forum getmecoat
It was your claim

DibblyDobbler said:
I'm comfortable that the planet appears to be slowly warming but is it 100% caused by us... 0%... somewhere in between? That, for me at least, is the main issue.
Perhaps this forum hasn't improved after all...

gadgetmac

14,984 posts

110 months

Saturday 16th February 2019
quotequote all
ludo said:
grumbledoak said:
Anyone new to these threads should note that "Real Climate" http://www.realclimate.org is very much the establishment climate scientists (Mann, Schmidt, et. al.) and "Skeptical Science" https://www.skepticalscience.com/ is not as it's name suggests.

As to posters linking to these while rubbishing other sources as propaganda, I trust PHers to draw their own conclusions.
yawn, ad-hominems (attacks on the source of the argument in place of attacks on the content) are O.K. in politics, but not in science where the only thing that matters is the validity of the argument and the support from the observations/experiment.
I’m going to enjoy reading this thread now.