will oil run out when I Am alive?
Discussion
Extremely pessimistic estimates would estimate that we will run out just as you pop your clogs but that would be assuming that demand increases exponentially along with proven reserves being all we have left as opposed to unproven reserves
for example if I remember correctly Saudi Arabia has the most proven reserves with Venezuela behind the, and perhaps surprisingly to many Canada in third place, but many believe that Canada has unproven reserves that absolutely dwarf Saudi. But a lot of this being deemed I obtainable due to expensive extraction costs, lack of technology and the quality of oil (very sand heavy I believe) and so not only are the location and extraction costs expensive the treatment and refining costs would also be uneconomical.
So basically although ultra pessimism says 60 years, ultra optimism probably suggests 300-400 years but as oil technology's develop so probably will natural gas, hydrogen and renewable energies so our oil reliance will will level out of drop.
for example if I remember correctly Saudi Arabia has the most proven reserves with Venezuela behind the, and perhaps surprisingly to many Canada in third place, but many believe that Canada has unproven reserves that absolutely dwarf Saudi. But a lot of this being deemed I obtainable due to expensive extraction costs, lack of technology and the quality of oil (very sand heavy I believe) and so not only are the location and extraction costs expensive the treatment and refining costs would also be uneconomical.
So basically although ultra pessimism says 60 years, ultra optimism probably suggests 300-400 years but as oil technology's develop so probably will natural gas, hydrogen and renewable energies so our oil reliance will will level out of drop.
Eric Mc said:
Only four nuclear powered commercial cargo ships was ever built. The most famous was the SS Savannah.
Crumbs, Eric has made a (very minor) mistake! It's the N.S. Savannah. The S.S. Savannah looks like this:
And it was powered by (not surprisingly, given the appearance and the name) sail!
Oli.
Converting coal to hydrocarbons won't be viable in many places other than south Africa because of the associated emissions with the liquification process.
We wouldn't get away with it over here. I believe the yanks did do it for a while but not on any grand scale and I'm guessing emissions is the major rrason they stopped
We wouldn't get away with it over here. I believe the yanks did do it for a while but not on any grand scale and I'm guessing emissions is the major rrason they stopped
zcacogp said:
Eric Mc said:
Only four nuclear powered commercial cargo ships was ever built. The most famous was the SS Savannah.
Crumbs, Eric has made a (very minor) mistake! It's the N.S. Savannah. The S.S. Savannah looks like this:
And it was powered by (not surprisingly, given the appearance and the name) sail!
Oli.
tweetstreet said:
Converting coal to hydrocarbons won't be viable in many places other than south Africa because of the associated emissions with the liquification process.
We wouldn't get away with it over here. I believe the yanks did do it for a while but not on any grand scale and I'm guessing emissions is the major rrason they stopped
And the Germans during WW2.We wouldn't get away with it over here. I believe the yanks did do it for a while but not on any grand scale and I'm guessing emissions is the major rrason they stopped
tweetstreet said:
Eric Mc said:
And the Germans during WW2.
And look where that got them Anyway, OP, I'll agree with most in this thread. There's loads of oil left in tar sands and deep wells, it's just harder to extract commercially. But it can and will be done when the books balance.
I will go against the grain here and say I believe the price will drop again in future as demand drops due to other fuel sources, and production becomes more efficient. This has happened before historically and the current highs aren't all that high in real terms
What is interesting is the period of nearly 100 years of stability between 1880 and the early 1970s, which even two world wars and the industrialisation of much of the planet didn't really affect.
Increased consumption in China and India will have some impact, but the current spike seems to be driven more by the problems in the Gulf than any real pinch in supply. I think, and hope, people will eventually realise that there's oil all over the place and it can be extracted very cheaply. The fact that the gulf is the cheapest area doesn't mean we couldn't economically replace it as a source.
What is interesting is the period of nearly 100 years of stability between 1880 and the early 1970s, which even two world wars and the industrialisation of much of the planet didn't really affect.
Increased consumption in China and India will have some impact, but the current spike seems to be driven more by the problems in the Gulf than any real pinch in supply. I think, and hope, people will eventually realise that there's oil all over the place and it can be extracted very cheaply. The fact that the gulf is the cheapest area doesn't mean we couldn't economically replace it as a source.
thinfourth2 said:
Big boats otherwise known as ships are actually hugely economical so they will carry on using oil for a very long time
I was under the impression that all engined sea going vessels are extremely un-economical with regards to MPG when compared to road going vehicles?Anyone?
Defcon5 said:
GTIR said:
I was under the impression that all engined sea going vessels are extremely un-economical with regards to MPG when compared to road going vehicles?
Anyone?
I thought that too, more gallons per mile than miles per gallonAnyone?
I'd still think it was a bit expensive though...
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