F1 cancelled this year?
Discussion
TheDeuce said:
But they know it's a very safe bet any resurgence will be steady and as such they can fine tune social restrictions to balance out the load on hospitals - whilst also letting economic activity recommence, including sport (as a mass business). They have to gamble the best time for everything, including sports and other businesses that bring thousands together to work.
This is a path that no person alive today has ever had to walk before. Got to keep walking and adjusting our footing as we do.
Yup, I'm not saying it's not going to happen, just that there's a small but very real chance it won't. This is a path that no person alive today has ever had to walk before. Got to keep walking and adjusting our footing as we do.
I doubt there will be any sort of relapse or resurgence between now and the end of the season.
The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
kambites said:
Yup, I'm not saying it's not going to happen, just that there's a small but very real chance it won't.
Agree. There remains a possibility all well made plans could come to naught. Thankfully slim imo, but anything is possible and I won't we deny no one is really fully in control of anything much right now.Fundoreen said:
I doubt there will be any sort of relapse or resurgence between now and the end of the season.
The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
That's my view. Also all those who have already had it (who knows how many, many seem not to notice they have had it until tested..) appear to not get it again, or at least be affected very mildly - so all those people are no longer at risk or going to pressure the hospitals. The high risk groups are more than aware by now that they need to stay sheltered... With whatever that leaves of the population, a second wave as strong as the first seems extremely unlikely. And that's before factoring in everyone being more cautious etc and the continuing social restrictions as people return to work.The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
The races will be a bit odd, but I don't really care about seeing crowds either tbh. The season could actually be very interesting simply because it's going to be so unusual and relatively compressed perhaps - double headers etc. And there are three championships this season... WDC, WCC and the race to see if Liberty can make enough races happen to fulfill their contractual obligations!
TheDeuce said:
Fundoreen said:
I doubt there will be any sort of relapse or resurgence between now and the end of the season.
The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
That's my view. Also all those who have already had it (who knows how many, many seem not to notice they have had it until tested..) appear to not get it again, or at least be affected very mildly - so all those people are no longer at risk or going to pressure the hospitals. The high risk groups are more than aware by now that they need to stay sheltered... With whatever that leaves of the population, a second wave as strong as the first seems extremely unlikely. And that's before factoring in everyone being more cautious etc and the continuing social restrictions as people return to work.The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
The races will be a bit odd, but I don't really care about seeing crowds either tbh. The season could actually be very interesting simply because it's going to be so unusual and relatively compressed perhaps - double headers etc. And there are three championships this season... WDC, WCC and the race to see if Liberty can make enough races happen to fulfill their contractual obligations!
None of us know how this will play out.
LucyP said:
No it isn't. It's working within Corona capacity, hence the lack of use for the Nightingale hospitals. This is only possible because many non-Corona related wards have been closed, operations cancelled, staff re-deployed. Once you allow the planned surgery, cancer treatment, etc etc, they are back up to beyond capacity just like they were pre-Corona.
Yes it is, that's why for weeks doctors have been interviewed on the TV saying if you need medical attention please come in....we are here. jsf said:
TheDeuce said:
Fundoreen said:
I doubt there will be any sort of relapse or resurgence between now and the end of the season.
The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
That's my view. Also all those who have already had it (who knows how many, many seem not to notice they have had it until tested..) appear to not get it again, or at least be affected very mildly - so all those people are no longer at risk or going to pressure the hospitals. The high risk groups are more than aware by now that they need to stay sheltered... With whatever that leaves of the population, a second wave as strong as the first seems extremely unlikely. And that's before factoring in everyone being more cautious etc and the continuing social restrictions as people return to work.The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
The races will be a bit odd, but I don't really care about seeing crowds either tbh. The season could actually be very interesting simply because it's going to be so unusual and relatively compressed perhaps - double headers etc. And there are three championships this season... WDC, WCC and the race to see if Liberty can make enough races happen to fulfill their contractual obligations!
None of us know how this will play out.
jsf said:
TheDeuce said:
Fundoreen said:
I doubt there will be any sort of relapse or resurgence between now and the end of the season.
The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
That's my view. Also all those who have already had it (who knows how many, many seem not to notice they have had it until tested..) appear to not get it again, or at least be affected very mildly - so all those people are no longer at risk or going to pressure the hospitals. The high risk groups are more than aware by now that they need to stay sheltered... With whatever that leaves of the population, a second wave as strong as the first seems extremely unlikely. And that's before factoring in everyone being more cautious etc and the continuing social restrictions as people return to work.The whole thing took hold because governments and their people did nothing and continued slobbering all over each other in public and private several months after it was rampant in the land.
People are more aware now.
Look forward to all the races. Wont miss a thing this year with no cuts to the crowd halfway through a crucial move on track.
Bit worried it will have some sort of cuts to people sat on the sofa at home like googlebox.
The races will be a bit odd, but I don't really care about seeing crowds either tbh. The season could actually be very interesting simply because it's going to be so unusual and relatively compressed perhaps - double headers etc. And there are three championships this season... WDC, WCC and the race to see if Liberty can make enough races happen to fulfill their contractual obligations!
None of us know how this will play out.
Thanks for backing me up by agreeing that no one knows the entire story. That's the whole point of course.
But it's not complete guesswork is it? It's me taking the time to follow trends and look at what is actually happening and giving a reasonable amount of thought as to why. Is there a particular part of what I have said that you think is dreamland? Or is it just that in general you dislike speculation? I haven't stated anything as fact that is incorrect. I have been suitably careful to identify what is assumption etc..
I respect that you prefer only to deal with full and established facts.. But it's not unreasonable that some other humans might occasionally like to flex their imagination in order to gauge what is likely, even if not already proven.
TheDeuce said:
But it's not complete guesswork is it? It's me taking the time to follow trends and look at what is actually happening and giving a reasonable amount of thought as to why.
You are making the same mistake markets make before a crash, past performance is no guarantee of the future and when a black swan event occurs you get smashed to pieces because of your projection into the future of what you think will happen.We don't know what will happen, period. We think we can make some educated guesses, but they could be completely wrong. Nature has a habit of putting us back in our box and proving to us past plus logic does not equate to future.
This is a problem when you are planning for the future, because you have to make decisions based on educated guesses, but you shouldn't be so bold as to say things wont get worse because things are currently improving and we are doing what is needed to improve.
Humans function in the same way entrainment works, we build systems in our minds to make sense of the world, and those work most of the time, but change the system just a small amount and back to chaos we go.
https://youtu.be/Aaxw4zbULMs
jsf said:
You are making the same mistake markets make before a crash, past performance is no guarantee of the future and when a black swan event occurs you get smashed to pieces because of your projection into the future of what you think will happen.
We don't know what will happen, period. We think we can make some educated guesses, but they could be completely wrong. Nature has a habit of putting us back in our box and proving to us past plus logic does not equate to future.
This is a problem when you are planning for the future, because you have to make decisions based on educated guesses, but you shouldn't be so bold as to say things wont get worse because things are currently improving and we are doing what is needed to improve.
Humans function in the same way entrainment works, we build systems in our minds to make sense of the world, and those work most of the time, but change the system just a small amount and back to chaos we go.
https://youtu.be/Aaxw4zbULMs
I can accept all you have said as true and sensible, but I'm afraid I don't think it all applies to what I had said.We don't know what will happen, period. We think we can make some educated guesses, but they could be completely wrong. Nature has a habit of putting us back in our box and proving to us past plus logic does not equate to future.
This is a problem when you are planning for the future, because you have to make decisions based on educated guesses, but you shouldn't be so bold as to say things wont get worse because things are currently improving and we are doing what is needed to improve.
Humans function in the same way entrainment works, we build systems in our minds to make sense of the world, and those work most of the time, but change the system just a small amount and back to chaos we go.
https://youtu.be/Aaxw4zbULMs
What mistake had I made exactly? Saying "x + y appears to be c and so therfore z will probably occur" isn't a mistake, it's a thoughtful prediction based on what probably will happen. Yes it could be wrong... There could be a surprise but that's always the case in life. You jumping in to a sensible discussion and saying "It's all guesswork and wishful thinking" doesn't do anything to add to the discussion. It isn't even true - It wasn't all guesswork was it? And where does wishful thinking come in to it? Saying something is likely is either reasonable or it isn't based on what is known at the time it's just reasoning, not dreaming... If there is part of what I said that you think is probably wrong, say why. I wouldn't wish to be 'probably wrong' if you can help me avoid it.
I fail to see how anything I had said was so outlandish as to be branded complete guesswork or simple wishful thinking.
Edited by TheDeuce on Saturday 16th May 07:58
At risk of sounding like I have a crush:
There’s a big difference between Deuce and the markets. If he’s wrong the only thing he loses is a bit of pride. The big difference between the Deuce and some other posters on here is that he admits that he might not be write.
This is a discussion forum after all, and providing some analysis is good. The analysis may or may not be flawed, but if you give your reasoning it’s not guess work. I would prefer a long post with reasoning that turns out to be wrong, than a single statement stated as fact that 3 weeks later turns out to be correct by pure luck.
Edit: Typos
There’s a big difference between Deuce and the markets. If he’s wrong the only thing he loses is a bit of pride. The big difference between the Deuce and some other posters on here is that he admits that he might not be write.
This is a discussion forum after all, and providing some analysis is good. The analysis may or may not be flawed, but if you give your reasoning it’s not guess work. I would prefer a long post with reasoning that turns out to be wrong, than a single statement stated as fact that 3 weeks later turns out to be correct by pure luck.
Edit: Typos
Edited by Nampahc Niloc on Saturday 16th May 09:35
Nampahc Niloc said:
Thanks for your kind words above, however... Slightly awkwardly the article you've linked to is the one that started the debate yesterday 
But never mind, it is indeed a positive step and there have been several others.
I think the biggest positive is that without any real pressure to do so, the government has said they want commercial sport to recommence and even went as far as to suggest a target date for when that could happen. Short of making a foolish promise, that is about the most positive we can had hoped for from government.
Also it ties in very well that certain exceptions to quarantine requirements, including elite sports people, are reportedly being discussed.
JSF is basically right to say things aren't known and thus some speculation is required and that always leaves room for coming up with the wrong answer.. but on the balance of probability I'm happy to personally conclude that all key factors are currently pointing toward F1 and other sports getting underway in the near future.
If I'm wrong, I'll be more pissed off that there is no racing to watch than I will be about being wrong!
I have no problem with people moving forward using the balance of probabilities, you have to, but you must also understand this could change rapidly and all your probable outcomes based on current trajectories will be useless.
The certainty expressed in the posts i commented on are pie in the sky, we don't know and won't know for some time how this is going to play out.
The certainty expressed in the posts i commented on are pie in the sky, we don't know and won't know for some time how this is going to play out.
Wills2 said:
LucyP said:
No it isn't. It's working within Corona capacity, hence the lack of use for the Nightingale hospitals. This is only possible because many non-Corona related wards have been closed, operations cancelled, staff re-deployed. Once you allow the planned surgery, cancer treatment, etc etc, they are back up to beyond capacity just like they were pre-Corona.
Yes it is, that's why for weeks doctors have been interviewed on the TV saying if you need medical attention please come in....we are here. It won't stop events like F1 running though, as the extra load of any potential incident is minimal. It still needs UK government to sanction the support required though.
jsf said:
The Belgium government has given the OK to Spa with no spectators.
At least at this rate we won't have to listen to the best fans in the world guff post race at each venue.
The fietsers have never stopped here, the cyclists have really taken advantage of the lockdown and you see big teams of them out and about, much more than you normally see in Belgium.At least at this rate we won't have to listen to the best fans in the world guff post race at each venue.
Alicatt1 said:
jsf said:
The Belgium government has given the OK to Spa with no spectators.
At least at this rate we won't have to listen to the best fans in the world guff post race at each venue.
The fietsers have never stopped here, the cyclists have really taken advantage of the lockdown and you see big teams of them out and about, much more than you normally see in Belgium.At least at this rate we won't have to listen to the best fans in the world guff post race at each venue.
jsf said:
I have no problem with people moving forward using the balance of probabilities, you have to, but you must also understand this could change rapidly and all your probable outcomes based on current trajectories will be useless.
The certainty expressed in the posts i commented on are pie in the sky, we don't know and won't know for some time how this is going to play out.
What certainty or pie in the sky caused you to comment on my post in the way that you did? You haven't identified anything you have an alternative view on.The certainty expressed in the posts i commented on are pie in the sky, we don't know and won't know for some time how this is going to play out.
I agree it 'could' change rapidly, but it remains logical so far as I can see that much of the fuel that made the first wave so intense is now removed or reduced and there is no chance of things entirely getting back to normal (which is what cause the large first wave) until there is a vaccine - and so long as some measures remain in force the second wave hasn't the potential to gain as much momentum as before. Of course I accept that there could be an additional factor as yet unknown to anyone... There could be a reason no one has considered that the worse is still to come come. But that would be unlikely - there are countries far further down the line than we are with this, that started to unlock weeks earlier and have seen nothing but an expected and manageable mild increase in cases.
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